Thursday, 10 November 2011

The gathering storm of prohibitionism

Reason magazine's Nick Gillepsie interviews the great Joe Jackson about music, smoking and the "gathering storm of prohibitionism."

Jackson's antipathy for the creeping nanny state in his native England and his longtime home of New York City led him to write a meticulously researched essay called "Smoking, Lies and The Nanny State." It also led him to finally flee New York and London, setting up residence in Berlin because there he at least feels like he is relatively "free" and "treated like an adult."

Well worth watching.





Wednesday, 9 November 2011

The North Carolina smoking ban/heart attack hoax

Stop me if you think you've heard this one before.

From the University of San Francisco (note the byline)...

Heart attacks down 21 percent in the first year after the North Carolina smokefree restuarant and bar law took effect

Submitted by sglantz on Wed, 2011-11-09 11:54

The evidence that strong smokefree laws provide large and immediate health benefits just keeps piling up.

The latest study, released today, found a 21 percent drop in emergency room admission for heart attacks during the first year of the law, saving an estimated $3.4 to $4.3 million in heath care costs. This is serious money, particularly as both government and the private sector struggle to keep health costs down.

These real documented and rapid benefits not just in terms of health, but the economy, show that the economic argument on smokefree policies has clearly shifted away from the tobacco industry and its allies to the health side.

Real and documented, you say? So we can assume, at the very least, that there were 21% fewer heart attacks after the smoking ban?

Not even that, I'm afraid. Not even close. As the study shows, there were 9,066 heart attacks in 2008. This fell by 10.5% to 8,113 in 2009. The smoking ban came in at the start of 2010. In that year, there were 7,669 heart attacks—a decline of 5.5%.

The researchers have even helpfully included a graph in which you can clearly see the heart attack rate falling before the ban and then leveling off somewhat after the ban.




As if to rub our noses in it, the researchers spell out exactly what the trend was.

Interestingly, the rates appear to have consistently declined between the year 2008 and 2009; after that period the rates leveled off at a consistently lower level in the year 2010.

Er, yeah. So where on earth does this claim that there was "a 21 percent drop in emergency room admission for heart attacks during the first year of the law" come from?

The answer is that they did a Gilmore. They made a computer model. You may recall Anna Gilmore and her band of merry women reinterpreting the no-change-there-then English heart attack data and declaring that 2.4% of the 4.2% drop was attributable to the smoking ban. Unprovable (she made no attempt to prove it) but also unfalsifiable.

This new study takes that approach to absurd new depths. Whereas Gilmore claimed that a portion of the drop in heart attacks was due to the smoking ban, this model says that the smoking ban reduced the heart attack rate by 21%, despite the actual heart attack rate only falling by 5.5%.

You almost have to admire the sheer audacity of these people. Every time I think there is no way they can keep flogging this dead horse, they come up with another ruse.

Here is a study which unequivocally shows that the smoking ban had absolutely no effect on the heart attack rate. If anything, the year after the smoking ban saw rather more heart attacks that would be predicted based on the preceding years. The study provides all the data you need to see that the heart attack rate fell by 5.5% after the smoking ban and yet it concludes—based on a demonstrably ludicrous computer model—that the smoking ban reduced the heart attack rate by 21%. When your computer gives you information like that it's time to turn it off and turn it on again.

And yet you can be sure that when this study is inevitably reported, the facts will not be allowed to stand in the way. The number of people who actually went to hospital with a heart attack will become irrelevant (although it's fitting that bans based on imaginary deaths are saving imaginary lives). The fiction has become the reality. The model has spoken. "There were 21% fewer heart attacks after the smoking ban. Here's Tom with the weather..."

Tuesday, 8 November 2011

Review time again

Patrick Hayes has written a thorough and generous review of The Art of Suppression for Spiked.
In masterfully charting the history of the prohibitionists’ war on pleasurable substances, in highlighting their endless failures to impose restrictions on the public, in exposing their dodgy use of statistics and ‘evidence bases’ to disguise moral arguments, and in emphasising the ability of us as individuals to exercise our capacity for self-restraint and personal responsibility, Snowdon does all of us determined to challenge the contemporary prohibitionist movement a great service.

Do read the whole thing.

The Art of Suppression is available from Amazon UK, Amazon.com or direct from me. Why not treat a loved one to a dozen copies this yuletide?

Friday, 4 November 2011

Season of hate

I generally have zero interest in what random people choose to type beneath the line of news stories on the internet, but a couple of articles this week made me think that the intellectual climate is darkening at a worrying rate.

Take this item from the Winnipeg Free Press about an unfortunate woman who nearly froze to death after being locked outside a hospital.

It was a bitter winter night, -30 C, in December 2000, when a 54-year-old hospital patient slipped outside Seven Oaks Hospital in her hospital gown, pulling her intravenous pole behind her.

She wanted a smoke.

An hour later, she was found comatose in a snowbank. The woman had suffered hypothermia and frostbite to her hands and feet. Four fingers on her right hand had to be amputated. She was left with limited mobility in her left hand.

The door had locked automatically behind the patient and she couldn't find a way back in. 

It's hard not to feel sorry for a lady who had a near-death experience and suffered multiple amputations.

Or so you might think. In fact, the mental image of a woman having a cigarette alone in arctic temperatures unleashed a river of bile in the comments section.

Shouldn't be smoking in the first place. Maybe a little cold made the lady realize that smoking is not healthy for you and neither is hanging out in the cold in a hospital gown.

This is a disgusting, filthy habit, and for people who are already in the hospital for a smoking-related illness wanting to go outside and smoke some more is just sickening. It's one thing not to be concerned for your own health - that's your perogative, but don't put the other patients & children with weakened immune systems in the way of second hand smoke. There are hundreds of other places to smoke, and a hospital or the hospital grounds definetely should not be one. Take a walk down the street, across from the hospital to inhale your death stick. If you can drag yourself out of bed, with your IV pole and grown, down the elevators outside, then you can take a few extra steps to move away from the building. Yes, even if it's -40. It won't kill you. Or maybe it will.

It's a dirty blue collar habit. And as for the stereotype - it need only be confirmed by the appearance of them in mass aroud the door of a building in the winter.

Absolutely zero sympathy for anyone who defies a doctor's caution to stop smoking and gets lung cancer. In fact, they should be refused any treatment whatsoever.

Nice.

And how about this light-hearted little item in The Economist, in which a journalist notices that many airports around the world manage to accommodate smokers in some small way without inconveniencing other passengers.

Yes, smoking is bad for you. But if you are a smoker, a civilised cigarette makes all the difference between being an irritable passenger itching to burst out of the terminal doors and a calm, considerate sort who makes room for his fellow travellers.

... Smokers don’t ask much. Put a designated smoking zone in the shoddiest corner of the terminal and they will trek to it, thanking the authorities with every carcinogenic breath. It would make economic sense too: Heathrow worries about losing its place as Europe’s foremost hub for international air traffic now that plans for the airport’s expansion have been shelved. But why waste money on a third runway when you can build a little smoking room and watch travellers flood in?

This is very moderate and unassuming stuff. The risks of smoking are acknowledged and all that is being asked for is "the shoddiest corner". Will the readers of this article respond with similar  bonhomie and tolerance? They will not.


Smoking is a filthy habit that should be discouraged, not encouraged. "Kissing a smoker is like licking a full ashtray". I don't want to sit next to a passenger who has been chain smoking, whose head and arm hair and clothes stink of stale smoke, whose yellowed teeth exhale nicotine air in my ambiance as s/he coughs his lungs up. Not to mention the cost to clean up smoking lounge draperies, fabric chairs, carpet. Because smoking kills the olfactories, smokers have no idea how badly they smell and they cannot taste food. Get a life, save money, and quit!

Having someone who has recently been smoking sit next to you on a flight is almost as bad as having them smoking there. The stench of cigarette smoke hangs in that persons hair, clothing and (if you are close enough) breath for a very long time. Let's keep it as far away as possible. Those demeaning goldfish-bowl smoking rooms are one of the saddest sights I've ever seen at an airport. Do these people know just how ridiculous they look?

If I am going to sit next to someone on a nine hour flight I don't want them stinking of fag ash. I don't mind if people smoke in special smoking rooms as long as they are required to shower and change into fresh clothes immediately afterwards.

Why not facilities for other drug addicts whilst one is about it? Of course the rest of us do not wish to be in the plane with smelly smokers, let alone drug-addicted pilots, so we are looking at complete segregation here....

Remember how in the very recent past, tobaccophobes insisted that they were not against people smoking per se, they just didn't want people to do it around them. Now, it seems, their sensitive noses need protecting to such an extent that the mere presence of someone who smoked several hours ago is enough to stir their righteous indignation. In the first story, we see a woman who has done everything that is demanded of her by braving sub-zero temperatures so that not a wisp of smoke goes up the delicate nostrils of fellow Canadians and yet all that can be said of her is that it is a shame she survived.

Finding anonymous half-mad obsessives spouting drivel on the internet is the easiest task in the galaxy, of course. It is always possible that a handful of loons scour the search engines for any mention of their bête noire to make sure their peculiar voices are heard. And yet, there is something in the sheer hatefulness—and quantity—of these comments that suggests that the policy of 'denormalisation' is producing fruit.

This is the inevitable result of the state-sanctioned stigmatisation that the anti-smoking movement has been working towards for twenty years. The public health establishment might distance itself from such sentiments but when even the NHS produces adverts like the one below, they must take some responsibility for lighting the blue touch paper.



Governments have a responsibility to quell tensions and defuse conflict in society. In no other area of life does government deliberately create and inflame hostility. Like so many other failed tobacco control policies, the doctrine of denormalisation is counter-productive and damaging because it is the brain-child of a small group of emotional zealots, some of whom are operating at a sub-optimal level of mental health themselves. It's time for the government to put the tobacco control freaks behind them and chart a new course before things get really nasty.

Thursday, 3 November 2011

No miracle in Oregon

Jacob Grier has written an article in The Oregonian looking at the state's heart attack rate following its smoking ban of 2009. It will no come as no surprise to regular readers that the dramatic fall in heart attacks predicted by ban supporters has failed to materialise.

Two years ago, Ty Gluckman cited research from Americans for Nonsmokers' Rights founder Stanton Glantz showing that smoking bans led to a 17% fall in hospital admissions for acute myocardial infarction and concluded that "it's highly likely that Oregon's heart attack rates are already dropping as we near the law's one-year anniversary." He said:

If we reduce the number of acute heart attacks by 17 percent, there will be at least 1,100 fewer hospital admissions in Oregon in just one year. At a cost of more than $35,500 per admission, the savings will be substantial: $40 million.

"Highly likely" is right. Oregon's heart attack rate has been dropping for years. In the year before the ban, it fell by 6.67%. As Grier shows in his article, in the years since the ban, it has fallen by 7.21% and 3.11%—very much in line with the long-term trend.

Taken from http://www.jacobgrier.com/blog/archives/4887.html


Once again, routine hospital admissions data provide no evidence of a heart miracle. This is not surprising since the 17% figure comes from a meta-analysis of  studies which are riddled with data-dredging, retrospective cherry-picking and blatant researcher bias. That the myth of the smoking ban heart miracle has travelled the world and informed policy for the best part of a decade is a scandal that would be front page news in any other field of science.

As Grier notes, the Oregon non-event adds to the weight of evidence taken from countries around the world—including three peer-reviewed studies focusing on the USA—showing no positive effect from smoking bans on the heart attack rate.

Critics have dubbed these fantastical results "heart miracles," and, like most miracles, they proved too good to be true. When larger populations are examined, the effect diminishes or disappears entirely. The most extensive study to date was recently conducted by the RAND Corp., with a data set of more than 670,000 heart attack admissions from 26 states over a period of 11 years. It concludes that "smoking bans are not associated with statistically significant short-term declines in mortality or hospital admissions" for heart attacks.

The RAND study also explains how publication bias in favor of results and the large variations in smaller samples have combined to produce the illusion that bans are effective.

Gluckman has responded in the same newspaper, acknowledging that the figures Grier presents are correct while downplaying their significance. His defence is that many venues were smoke-free before the 2009 ban and so the effect of the state-wide legislation was less pronounced that it might have been. (This is the same excuse given by Anna Gilmore and colleagues (without evidence) when they failed to replicate the 17% drop claimed in the notorious Scotland heart miracle study.) It is strange that Gluckman did not mention this limitation when he was raving about the $40 million saving the state would make when it reduced heart attacks by 17%.

Now, at the eleventh hour, Gluckman concedes that heart disease is multi-factorial. He notes that major causes such as obesity may cloud the results. Indeed they could. It was always massively implausible that one minor variable—secondhand smoke exposure in bars—could have a large enough effect to show up in aggregate data, but this is the lemon that has been sold to the public around the world. We were told unequivocally that smoking bans produced declines in the heart attack rate of 17%, 40%, 50% and higher. Hospital admissions data have consistently shown this to be a fantasy.

Smoking ban campaigners have little choice but to back-track and make excuses in the face of reality, but there are two important things to remember.

The first is that this scam has only been exposed because it relied on data that are accessible to the public. The public will never be allowed to see the raw data behind the vast majority of what passes for science in journals like Tobacco Control. Light is the best disinfectant, but the bulk of the anti-smoking movement's policy-based evidence remains hidden in dark corners.

The second is that, although the fiction of the heart miracle is now virtually impossible to maintain, studies making impossible claims were published in peer-reviewed journals, including respected organs such as the NEJM and the BMJ for several years. Several meta-analyses (including two written by Stanton Glantz) have uncritically perpetuated the myth. And yet, whenever hospital admissions data are publicly available, they strongly indicate absolutely no impact on heart attacks from smoking bans.

There are lessons here about the perils of publication bias, advocacy-led science and the limitations of ecological studies. But in the end, it comes down to one simple fact — we have been lied to.

Wednesday, 2 November 2011

A good news story

This piece of junk research came out a couple of months ago...

Meat eaters are selfish and less social

"Meat brings out the worst in people. This is what psychologists of the Radboud University Nijmegen and Tilburg University concluded from various studies on the psychological significance of meat.

Thinking of meat makes people less socially [sic] and in many respects more "loutish". It also appears that people are more likely to choose meat when they feel insecure, perhaps because it is a feeling of superiority or status displays, the researchers suggest.

Marcel Zeelenberg Tilburg professors (Economic psychology) and Diederik Stapel (consumer sciences and dean of Tilburg School of Social and Behavioral Sciences) and the Nijmegen Professor Roos Vonk (social psychology) examined the psychological significance of meat.

The conclusion was that eating meat is symptomatic of some sort of psychological disorder. This, of course, was just what militant vegetarians wanted to hear and it was eye-catching enough to make it into the newspapers.

Roos Vonk, known for her columns and books about how our ego gets in our way, doesn’t feel shocked. "Previous research had already shown that meat eaters think more in terms of dominance and hierarchy (who is the boss?) than vegetarians. Eating meat is also traditionally associated with status, meat used to be much more expensive and scarcer than now. Eating meat is a way to elevate yourself above others. But by uplifting yourself, you lose connection with others. That explains why there are more insecure people in need. It also makes people loutish when they think about meat and also feel lonely. "

Diederik Stapel adds to it: "It seems that vegetarians and flexitarians are happier and feel better, and they are also more sociable and less lonely."

Diederik Stapel is a social psychologist with a string of peer-reviewed studies to his name, including this one - just another junk scientist forcing his beliefs onto others with the veneer of social science. Nothing special about that, except that this story has a happy ending.


Dutch 'Lord of the Data' Forged Dozens of Studies

One of the Netherlands' leading social psychologists made up or manipulated data in dozens of papers over nearly a decade, an investigating committee has concluded.

Diederik Stapel was suspended from his position at Tilburg University in the Netherlands in September after three junior researchers reported that they suspected scientific misconduct in a study that claimed eating meat made people more aggressive.

Stapel's work encompassed a broad range of attention-catching topics, including the influence of power on moral thinking and the reaction of psychologists to a plagiarism scandal. The committee, which interviewed dozens of Stapel's former students, postdoctoral researchers, co-authors, and colleagues, found that Stapel alone was responsible for the fraud. The panel reported that he would discuss in detail experimental designs, including drafting questionnaires, and would then claim to conduct the experiments at high schools and universities with which he had special arrangements.

The experiments, however, never took place, the universities concluded. Stapel made up the data sets, which he then gave the student or collaborator for analysis, investigators allege. In other instances, the report says, he told colleagues that he had an old data set lying around that he hadn't yet had a chance to analyze. When Stapel did conduct actual experiments, the committee found evidence that he manipulated the results.

This is the kind of thing that the public expects peer-review to be able to weed out. In practice, alas, peer-reviewers do not verify raw data nor do they obtain proof that experiments have been carried out. Most of the time, they wouldn't be able to perform these checks even if they wanted to.

Not that I'm suggesting that peer-review is massively over-rated - sometimes reviewers will correct spelling mistakes.

The data were also suspicious, the report says: effects were large; missing data and outliers were rare; and hypotheses were rarely refuted. Journals publishing Stapel's papers did not question the omission of details about where the data came from. "We see that the scientific checks and balances process has failed at several levels," Levelt says.

The case of Mr Stapel is highly unusual. He got caught.

One down, hundreds to go.

Tuesday, 1 November 2011

No, no, no

A quick review of some of the weekend's idiots...

From the BBC, where if the press release mentions 'alcohol', it's a news story, no matter how implausible the findings or how shaky the research.

A small number of children as young as 12 claimed they drank the equivalent of 19 glasses of wine a week when questioned for a health survey.

Research by the independent Schools Health Education Unit suggested that 4% of those questioned aged 12 or 13 claimed they drank 28 units or more.

It's strange that no one involved in this study, let alone the Beeb, considered the possibility that 4% of 12 and 13 year olds might amuse themselves by making stuff up when confronted with earnest surveys about their drinking habits. Frankly, I'm a little disappointed the figure was so low. What's the matter with kids today?

Elsewhere, an epidemiological study has arrived with some mildly heroic conclusions:


Heavy alcohol consumption linked to lung cancer

Smokers are more likely to be heavy drinkers. That much is true. I humbly suggest, therefore, that this study failed to control adequately for smoking or misclassified some smokers as nonsmokers. I cannot prove this, but the other findings suggest that this was not the best conducted study ever produced...

Although researchers found several factors that increased lung cancer risk, other factors were found to be related to reduced risk of the disease. Dr. Siu and team found an inverse relationship between BMI and lung cancer risk, where higher BMI levels were associated with a lower risk for lung cancer. A similar relationship was seen in those who graduated from college.

Er, yeah. Nonsmokers are more likely to be overweight and obese than smokers, therefore there would be an indirect association between low BMI and lung cancer. As for the 'link' with high school graduation, that only demonstrates that associations can be found anywhere if you do not control for confounding factors. I would be interested to see the study in full (so far it's only been presented at a public health conference - surprise, surprise), but in the meantime I think it's safer to call bullshit on this one rather than rip up the textbooks.

Meanwhile, as Scotland brings its illegal pricing scheme before parliament, the suicidal pub industry cannot see beyond its short-term self-interest.


Greene King brewery boss backs minimum alcohol pricing


Plans to introduce minimum pricing for alcohol would "go to the very heart" of Scotland's drink problems, a brewery boss has claimed.

This is the same Greene King that was "optimistic about the smoking ban" in July 2007 before the reality of the smoking ban helped its shares to collapse by 60%. Maybe they were right to be optimistic, compared to some other pub chains, a post-ban plummet of 60% isn't that bad.

That experience hasn't dented their faith in alleged public health policies and they see minimum pricing as a way to lure back the customers that the smoking ban drove away. Like the Scottish Licensed Trade Association, who made the jaw-dropping demand that alcohol units be priced at £1.00, they think that if they help the temperance lobby batter the off license trade, the beast will kill them last. The short-sightedness of these cretins beggars belief.

Greene King runs 2,000 pubs and makes Ruddles, IPA and Old Speckled Hen. Bear that in mind next time you're out and about.