People are different. Get used to it.

I've written about how people are different for The Critic. It is a point that seems to elude those who talk about the gateway effect.

 

Most social scientists pay lip service to the old adage about correlation not equalling causation, but the temptation to find a deeper meaning in statistical relationships can be hard to resist. In Australia, which is becoming a centre of excellence for human stupidity, an anti-vaping program was recently launched on the basis that: “Studies have shown that engaging in unsafe sex, other substance abuse, drink driving, texting while driving and driving without a seatbelt are associated with increased e-cigarette use among youth”. I dare say they are, but a campaign to reduce unsafe sex by clamping down on e-cigarettes (which, incidentally, are already illegal in Australia) is as doomed to failure as a campaign to reduce drownings by clamping down on ice cream sales. 

 

Do read it all. 

 

 

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On the Matt Forde podcast

It was my great pleasure to appear on Matt Forde's Political Party podcast last week. You can listen to it here. Here's his blurb for it...

What is lifestyle economics and why does it matter?

The IEA's Christopher Snowdon is a fun-loving political thinker and explains his opposition to puritanism, why we should have more freedom and what that would mean for our policies on smoking, alcohol, gambling and the very existence of the NHS.

Also... what are ultra-processed foods and are they necessarily bad?

 

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Britain's black market in tobacco is too big to ignore

Figures published last week show that legal tobacco sales fell by 52% in the United Kingdom between 2021 and 2025. The volume of manufactured cigarettes sold dropped by 46%, from 23.4 billion sticks to 12.6 billion sticks, while the volume of rolling tobacco fell by 59%, from 8.6 million kilograms to 3.6 million kilograms.

The decline in legal rolling tobacco sales is particularly significant because loose tobacco has been subject to the heaviest tax rises in recent years, with the duty rate doubling since 2020. Rolling tobacco is often the last resort for low income smokers before they turn to the black market.

Converting kilograms of rolling tobacco into sticks, we find that a total of 19.8 billion cigarettes were sold legally in the UK in 2025, less than half the figure recorded in 2021 (40.6 billion).¹ This decline is far greater than any estimate of the decline in the smoking rate. These estimates vary. According to the Opinion & Lifestyle Survey, the smoking rate among people aged 16 or older in Great Britain fell from 12.7% to 9.1% between 2021 and 2024. According to the Annual Population Survey, the rate among people aged 18 or older in the United Kingdom fell from 12.3% to 10.5% in the same period. Neither survey has an estimate for 2025 yet, but the monthly Smoking Toolkit Study suggests that the rate of daily cigarette smoking in England was 10.6% in 2025, only modestly less than in 2021 when the rate was 11.4%. 

If the Smoking Toolkit Study is correct then overall tobacco consumption has barely changed since 2021 and it is a mathematical certainty that at least 50% of the market is illicit. If the other estimates are correct, the illicit share is still much larger than the official estimate of 13% from HMRC. 

I may return to the question of why estimates of smoking prevalence are so different and why HMRC's estimate is so wrong in the future. For now, read my analysis of the latest data on the IEA Insider Substack. 

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Restless people

The BBC has been unearthing cases of people behaving unusually after taking a drug for Restless Legs Syndrome. Since reporting the story of one woman who “began leaving her house in the early hours of the morning to cruise for sex” and would “flash her chest at any man she could find” after taking Ropinirole, the Beeb has received messages from hundreds from people who claim to have suddenly developed a taste for reckless hedonism after being prescribed the medication. 

“I think I’m obsessed with sex,” says Michael (not his real name), whom the BBC says has “now slept with about 20 men and women, despite being married. Previously, he never cheated on his wife or had any homosexual encounters”. Other alleged victims of the drug say that they lost tens of thousands of pounds on gambling (“at the time I didn’t know it was no fault of my own”) and on shopping (“I knew that the behaviour wasn’t me, but I couldn’t control it”). One man “felt compelled to go on three-day long fishing trips every single week” and “found himself shopping compulsively for clothes, despite never previously having any interest in fashion”.

 

Read more about this odd phenomenon at The Critic. 

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Fight the vaping ban

The New Nicotine Alliance has produced a simple, accurate and easy-to-read summary of why the proposed vaping ban is an appalling idea. You can read it on a webpage or as a PDF.

If you hit the webpage you will be guided towards the public consultation. I urge you to respond. 

 

Please take a few moments to complete the official consultation by visiting the government website here and sharing your views. When you fill out the form, you might find it helpful to focus on how vaping has helped you or others stay away from combustible tobacco. Do not be put off by questions which ask for new evidence, your lived experience is evidence in its own right, so please feel free to tell your stories.

You can also mention that current scientific evidence shows no material harm to bystanders, as explained in our briefing.

Your contribution does not need to be long or overly technical to be effective. It simply needs to be an honest reflection of why a public ban would be counterproductive to health goals. By speaking up now, we can help protect the progress the UK has made in reducing smoking rates. Thank you for your continued support and for taking the time to make your voice count in this important discussion.

 

In my experience, most vapers don't know what is about the hit them. Because of the way this was press released two weeks ago, they think it is only about banning vaping in cars with hits or think it is something to do with vaping outside hospitals. It isn't. It is everything: pubs, clubs, all workplaces, football grounds, vape shops, the lot. 

 

Resist it while you still can. The government's Impact Assessment is a dog's dinner and a lot of people in politics and 'public health' don't really have their heart in it. Let's make this another U-turn.

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Travel advice for vapers

The Telegraph has written a guide for vapers travelling to parts of the world that are even more hostile to e-cigarettes. I am quoted in it.

 

Christopher Snowdon, head of lifestyle economics at the Institute of Economic Affairs and editor of the Nanny State Index, which ranks countries by how much they interfere with people’s lifestyle choices, said: “The World Health Organisation’s campaign against vaping has been influential, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

“Bans on vaping and e-cigarette flavours, as well as e-cigarette taxes, have been steadily growing for years and it is important for travellers to be aware of what the rules are.”

Snowdon explained that this is particularly true of countries where the government owns or holds a stake in tobacco companies. Along Asia’s backpacking routes, Thailand and Vietnam have state-owned monopolies of the tobacco industries and heavily enforce anti-vaping laws, particularly in tourist areas. Visitors to Thailand face up to 10 years’ imprisonment for possession of vapes.

Prison sentences will soon also be on the cards for vapers in Hong Kong. The region already prohibits the import and sale of e-cigarettes, but a further ban on carrying vapes is due to be introduced on April 30.

 

It ends by saying...

 

“Vapers also need to be aware that they could be heavily fined for bringing an e-cigarette into Australia,” said Snowdon. The country banned vapes for recreational use, and devices containing liquid nicotine can now only be purchased from a pharmacy, with a prescription.

There are exceptions to this tide of vaping regulation, though. Highly conservative Saudi Arabia – despite forbidding alcohol – has surprisingly lax laws on it. Meanwhile, Norway plans to legalise e-cigarettes this coming July. But with the vaping crackdown picking up speed and legislation in regular flux, Snowdon warns that travellers should always check what the latest rules are before booking a trip.

“Caution is advised,” he said. “If all else fails, vapers can always go back to smoking for the duration of their holiday...”

The Nanny State Index doubles as a handy travel guide. You can consult it here.

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Could this anti-smoking sockpuppet be a victim of its own success?

According to the Charity Commission, the prohibitionist astro-turf group Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) relieved taxpayers of £245,000 in 2024/25. Donations from the general public brought in a miserable £4,607. 

This racket has been going on for more than fifty years now and is surely due to come to an end. ASH's grifters are currently trying to gold-plate the Tobacco and Vapes Bill with ludicrous ideas such as individual warnings on cigarettes and banning filters, but since prohibition now has cross-party support, it is hard to see what purpose ASH serves. 

ASH themselves seem to recognise this. In their 'Statement of Risk', they openly ponder why the government needs to keep funding an extremist pressure group to lobby itself when anti-smoking extremism is now the norm amongst the political class. 

In the short term, they have got into bed with NHS England to work on "prevention and health inequalities". That, presumably, is where their £245,000 came from. In the long term, who knows? Most likely, they will pivot to becoming an anti-vaping group, but perhaps they will turn their attention to ultra-processed food, betting or red meat.

My article featuring ASH and other government sock puppets is still outside the paywall for now: Bootlegging Baptists: the logic of paternalistic collective action.  

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