Failure, failure, failure

A study published this week in Addiction reveals that the Italian smoking ban had no lasting effect on smoking prevalence and quit rates. The researchers found that there was a brief decline in the number of smokers when the ban came in, but that the smoking rate returned to pre-ban levels shortly afterwards.

Findings: Among males, smoking prevalence decreased by 2.6% (p = 0.002) and smoking cessation increased by 3.3% (p = 0.006) shortly after the ban, but both measures tended to return to pre-ban values in the following years. This occurred among both high and low-educated males. Among low-educated females, the ban was followed by a 1.6% decrease (p = 0.120) in smoking prevalence and a 4.5% increase in quit ratios (p < 0.001). However, these favourable trends reversed over the following years. Among high-educated females, trends in smoking prevalence and cessation were not altered by the ban. Among both males and females, long–term trends in the daily number of cigarettes, which were already declining well before the implementation of the policy, changed to a minor extent.

Conclusion: The impact of the Italian smoke-free policy on smoking and inequalities in smoking was short-term. Smoke-free policies may not achieve the secondary effect of reducing smoking prevalence in the long-term, and they may have limited effects on inequalities in smoking.

This study closely echoes the findings of a paper published last year in PLoS (mentioned on this blog in November) which reported a large increase in the use of nicotine replacement 'therapy' when the smoking ban was introduced in Scotland, but no long-term change in the nation's smoking prevalence. It also echoes another study published this month which found no change in the number of nurses smoking in France after smoking was banned in the workplace.

All of this runs counter to the widely held belief that smoking bans encourage smokers to quit. By contrast, new evidence continues to appear showing the efficacy of snus as a smoking cessation aid.

Among male quitters under the age of 45 years, 45.8 % of those who had used snus on their last attempt to quit were current non-smokers (OR = 1.61, CI 1.04-2.29), while 26,3 % of those who had used NRT were current non-smokers.

59.6 % of successful quitters and 19.5 % of unsuccessful quitters who had used snus as a method for quitting smoking had continued to use snus on a daily basis after quitting.

Conclusion: Norwegian men frequently use snus as a method for quitting smoking whereas women are more likely to use NRT. The findings indicate that switching to snus can be an effective method for quitting smoking.

You may also recall the study from 2010 which revealed that graphic warnings on cigarette packs had no effect on the quit rate (or initiation rate)—again, in contrast to the excitable claims made by 'tobacco control professionals'.

There were few changes post implementation of the picture health warnings in the number of health effects recalled or participant’s perception of risk... There were no differences post implementation of the picture health warnings in the number of smokers reporting forgoing a cigarette when about to smoke one or stubbing out a cigarette because they thought about the health risks of smoking... Among young people, the impact of picture health warnings was negligible.

The evidence is mounting that the neo-prohibitionist approach of incremental bans is a busted flush, whereas the harm reductionist approach is not only more civilised, but is more effective in helping people who want to quit do so, rather than hassling and belittling people who don't. As I've said before, tobacco control is not a results-driven business. No one gets sacked for making the wrong call, they just move onto the next policy and hope nobody notices.

The priority for the neo-prohibitionists this year is plain packaging and the usual tired claims are being wheeled out about "overwhelming evidence"which exists only in their imagination. Will the politicians fall for it one more time or will they demand—at long last—that tobacco control be judged by past performance?

UPDATE: In the comments, "Big" Dick Puddlecote brings my attention to yet another example of failure.

Smoking levels among adults in Northern Ireland have not reduced in the last five years, the health minister has said...

The Executive has introduced smoke-free legislation in public areas such as the workplace, bars and restaurants. It has increased age requirements and developed smoking cessation services. There are also measures to scrap vending machines and remove displays of cigarettes in shops...

Smoking prevalence among adults has remained around 24% since 2007 and for manual workers that rate is 31%.

Winning!

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Stagnation

Three anti-smoking organisations have commissioned a group of academics to write a report which amounts to a begging letter for continued state funding. It talks about tobacco control "investment" (a word it uses fifteen times) and tries to persuade our impecunious political masters that spending taxpayer's cash on wowserism and junk science will save the country money.

To this end, they lean heavily on the much-mocked Policy Exchange report of 2010 which attempted to show that smokers were a burden on the economy. Unfortunately, all it really showed was that the Policy Exchange can't distinguish between private costs and public costs, financial costs and intangible costs, and externalities and internalities. Nor does it understand that savings need to be weighted against costs in cost-benefit analyses. And, for good measure, it is ignorant of the body of research showing that smokers more than pay their weigh in economic terms.

Never mind though, eh? All policy-makers really need to know when considering whether to throw more taxpayers' money at Tobacco Free Futures, Smokefree South West and Smokefree North East (for it is they) is on page 5:

Furthermore, whilst there has been a downward trend in smoking prevalence over several decades, this appears to have stagnated since 2007.

What happened prior to 2007 to bring down the smoking rate? Not a great deal by the standards of the anti-tobacco extremists—education, awareness, taxation and a ban on tobacco advertising.

What happened from 2007 onwards? One of the world's most draconian smoking bans (2007). Graphic health warnings (2008). Adverts showing fish hooks severing the faces of smokers (2007, below). Massive tax rises (20% increase since January 2010). Counterfeit cigarettes openly sold in the street (2010). Nutters demanding outdoor smoking bans (2011).

Since 2007, the UK has sat proudly atop of the 'Tobacco Control Scale' league table. Like Ireland, Britain did everything the anti-smoking 'experts' said we should. What has been the reward? Stagnation.

Denormalisation, division and extremism is not working. The primary goal of reducing smoking prevalence is not being achieved. The unintended consequences have been socially and economically disastrous. The neurotics and fanatics have been running the show for too long. The coalition should hold tobacco control accountable for this dismal record of failure and return to sensible smoking cessation programmes, believable educational campaigns and treating people like grown ups.

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2011: The ten best bits

Like all years, 2011 was mostly awful for those of us who have a fondness for liberty. However, I have managed to find ten highlights to bring you cheer as the year comes to an end.

10. EU consultation backfires

It all seemed so easy for the European Commission: quietly launch a public consultation on tobacco regulation, pack it full of responses from NGOs and fake charities and, voila!, the EU can declare huge support for plain packaging and huge opposition to lifting the ban on snus. Alas, for our penniless European masters, the NGOs barely turned up, but the public did. Result: very little support for more bans and lots of support for harm reduction policies.

Naturally, the EU disregarded the consultation and claimed to have suddenly found a bundle of supportive responses which they won't let anyone see. Ah, sweet democracy.

9. Junk scientist caught and sacked

All he wanted to do was come up with evidence to show that meat-eaters are anti-social louts, but things unravelled for "social psychologist" Diederik Stapel in October when an investigating committee found that he had "made up or manipulated data in dozens of papers over nearly a decade". The academic fraudster was finally exposed after his students noticed that his data fitted Stapel's pre-existing beliefs a little too perfectly. Sacked in disgrace, one hopes in vain that his example will act as a warning to other politically-motivated social scientists.

8. Malta gets mugged by reality

Having heard about the miraculous effect of smoking bans on heart attacks—arguably the most egregious case of systematic scientific fraud of the last ten years—the people of Malta were expecting great things when they conducted a review of hospital admissions. Alas, the country's heart attack rate had risen since the ban and they had neglected to employ a junk scientist to manipulate the figures to show otherwise.

Failing to twig that they had been tricked by the likes of Jill "let me smooth that our for you" Pell and Anna "pants on fire" Gilmore, the hapless Maltese issued the figures in a report with the unintentionally hilarious title "The Smoking Ban: The Malta Paradox".

7. BBC finally admits that drinking has been declining for years

In which the BBC admitted the truth it had been so carefully obscuring throughout the noughties.

It's difficult to open a newspaper without reading about the alcohol problems that exist in the UK. Recent headlines include "Binge drinking costs NHS billions", "Hospitals reel as drink cases soar" and "Alcohol abuse to cost NHS an extra billion"

And this week, figures from Alcohol Concern suggest the number of people being treated in hospital for alcohol misuse has more than doubled in eight years.

But behind these stories is an unexpected truth - Britons have been drinking less and less every year since 2002.

They didn't make a big deal of this admission—it featured in a little magazine article—and they made it up to their friends at the BMA by producing the most outrageously biased pro-temperance television programme of the year, but at least it was there. If we're lucky, maybe in 2012 they'll acknowledge that obesity hasn't risen since 2002 as well?

6. BMA caught pulling numbers out of the air

Of all the junk statistics that are used to justify a smoking ban in cars, the one you really don't want to cite if you're an "evidence-based" anti-smoking campaigner is the one that was debunked in a prestigious peer-reviewed journal in 2010. But when the British Medical Association earnestly informed the media that smoking in a car creates 23 times more smoke than would be found in a smoky bar, it apparently forgot that the Candian Medical Association Journal had told advocates to "stop using the 23 times more toxic factoid because there appears to be no evidence for it in the scientific literature".

The open and shut nature of the case forced the BMA to retract the silly claim. Having insisted that a single cigarette smoked in a moving vehicle with all the windows open creates 23 times more secondhand smoke than a pub full of smokers, they replaced it with the claim that ten cigarettes smoked in a stationary car with all the windows up and the ventilation off creates 11 times more smoke. Not quite the same thing, that, but it mattered not because the media had moved on and virtually no news outlets let their readers in on the cock-up.

5. Stanton Glantz roundly mocked for Smokefree Movies madness

It's always amusing when normal people suddenly become aware of deranged characters like California's mad professor Stanton A. Glantz (I can't say what the A stands for, but its an anagram of 'earholes'). In March, the paranoid mechanical engineer got himself in the news when he attacked an animated film called Rango which depicted people doing the worst thing in the world. It was true, said Glantz: "A lot of kids are going to start smoking because of this movie." Cue hilarity from across the media and blogosphere, of which the best came from the website Filmdrunk:

Let me be very clear about something: Stanton Glantz is not a real person. He can’t be. An anti-smoking advocate named Stanton Glantz who lives in San Francisco and makes conclusory doomsday statements like “A lot of kids are going to start smoking because of this movie” sounds like something even Michael Bay would dismiss as being too on-the -nose. No, I’ll not be fooled by this.

Look, I don’t want kids smoking any more than the next guy (provided the next guy isn’t Joe Camel). But these morons who take it upon themselves to try to eradicate tobacco use from the planet one city ordinance and petition at a time need to be stopped. I’m sorry if your enjoyment of the park is lessened because Johnny Motorcycle lit up a Marlboro Light and the smell of smoke just drives you batty. But tough sh*t. I don’t like country music, but I’m not going to go out and picket every Keith Urban concert. As I said up top, I can understand banning smoking in tight, confined spaces like bars or airplanes for the health of consumers and employees. But when your argument devolves into “ALL MOVIES WITH SMOKING SHOULD BE RATED-R REGARDLESS OF CONTEXT,” then you’re no longer doing a service to your cause.

And you’re an asshole.

And I hate you.

Quite.

Gobshite

4. Dutch government decides to treat electorate like grown ups

Wailing and gnashing of teeth were inevitable when the Dutch government decided to relax the smoking ban and slash funding of the neo-prohibitionist tobacco control outfit STIVORO.

A bunch of concerned advocates (ie. people who would be out of work if their governments also slashed tobacco control spending) wrote a tear-stained letter to The Lancet with the wonderful title 'Can the Dutch government really be abandoning smokers to their fate?' If stopping harassment and vilification is leaving people to their fate, then yes, they were.

The Dutch health minister, Edith Schippers, has said that "the state is not a nanny" and that she wants to allow "adults to decide for themselves over lifestyle decisions." Public health professionals across Europe looked at each other in bewilderment.

3. McDonalds outwits San Francisco food fascists

Bone-headed Californians decided that Happy Meals were the cause of obesity and so banned the practice of giving toys away with fast food. McDonalds duly obeyed and started selling toys separarely for ten cents while giving the proceeds to charity. The result?

Happy Meal sales haven’t slowed down, McDonald’s is making even more money, and parents are now spending an extra 10 cents per kid every time they stop by the golden arches.

Tee, and furthermore, hee.

2. Bigot crushed in Stony Stratford

Risible neurotic local councillor decides that there will be no more smoking on his watch and moves to ban people lighting up in the streets of Stony Stratford. ASH gives him their support but hundreds of more liberal-minded people flock to the town to register their disgust. Local residents disown him, the motion is rejected by 148 votes to 2 and Councillor Paul Bartlett - for it is he - may not be a councillor for much longer.

1. Alcohol Concern loses government funding

In October, there was terrible news for the nation's second least popular fake charity when the government decided that there was no need to keep shovelling hundreds of thousands of pounds at a temperance group which did nothing but slag them off. Having bit the hand that fed it once too often, Alcohol Concern was left without state-funding. Faced with the prospect of having to collect donations from the public like charities are supposed to do, its CEO, Don Shenker, immediately jumped ship. Shenker is now desperately hoping that any future employees don't Google his name.

Happy New Year.

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The failure of the Scottish smoking ban

A new study in PloS has found that Scotland's smoking ban had no effect on the country's smoking rate in the long term. Authored by the notorious Jill Pell and colleagues from Glasgow University, the study shows that there was an upswing in quit attempts in the months before and after the implementation of the ban (March 2006), but that these attempts had no lasting effect on smoking prevalence.

The graph below, which comes from the PloS study, shows 12 years of smoking prevalence data. The dotted line shows the predicted rate based on past performance. The vertical line shows the smoking ban.

If you look closely, you can see that smoking prevalence dropped below the anticipated level for a while around the time of the ban, but then rose back to the normal level where it has remained ever since.

... in October–December 2005 immediately prior to the introduction of the ban prevalence fell by 1.70% more than expected from the underlying trend. The magnitude of the decay parameter, −0.08, (95% CI −0.38, 0.22) indicates that this effect was short lived with prevalence returning to its long term trend by the last quarter of 2006.

The graph below shows the quantities of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) being handed out by the Scottish NHS between 2003 and 2009. Again, the dotted line shows the predicted figures.

Assuming that NRT prescriptions are a marker for total quit attempts (a reasonable assumption), there was a rise in people trying to give up around the time of the ban. Quit attempts then fell below the average for the next two years. This suggests that many of the people who would have made a quit attempt in 2007 or 2008 brought their attempt forward to late 2005/early 2006. Having failed to quit at the time of the ban, these people did not try again in the next couple of years. Over the whole period, there was no increase in the number of people who tried to quit.

The rise in quit attempts was no doubt bolstered by the publicity about the ban and the expensive smoking cessation campaigns that accompanied the legislation. As the study's authors note:

In the six months leading up to implementation of the legislation there were two high profile television campaigns.

It was not the ban, but the fear of the ban, combined with increased advertising for smoking cessation services, that led to the increase in quit attempts—this is evident from the fact that the 1.7% drop in smoking prevalence pre-dated the ban by several months. Contrary to the expectations of anti-smoking lobbyists, the ban itself did not help people sustain their quit attempts, nor did it have any independent effect on the smoking rate. Given the choice of giving up smoking or giving up the pub, many of them gave up the pub.

Despite a large surge in the amount of NRT being distributed, there was no lasting effect on smoking prevalence. The short term blip was not sustained in the medium- or long-term. Ultimately, the ban failed to achieve what its advocates hoped and predicted. It also suggests that NRT products are not very good at helping people quit for more than a few weeks or months.

This should all be contrasted with the claims put forward before the ban. In 2005, NHS Scotland's 'evidence-based' review of the literature found that:

Prospective cohort studies reported reductions in smoking prevalence of 7–20% and population-based studies comparing workplaces with and without restrictions showed 15–20% lower prevalence. Partial restrictions had little or no effect. A recent meta-analysis reported a 3.8% reduction in absolute prevalence (pooled effect) associated with smoke-free workplaces.

Given the uncertainty around the precise estimate, the benefit of reduced smoking prevalence has been estimated using conservative estimates of the effect, with a range of 1–3%.

A more conservative estimate would have been 0%. It would have been right.

And let us cast our minds back to 2006 when the BBC reported this breathless forecast from Scotland's Chief Medical Officer...

Ban will 'eradicate lung cancer'

Lung cancer could be virtually wiped out in Scotland as a result of the smoking ban in public places, according to the chief medical officer.

Dr Harry Burns said lung cancer rates would be reduced to just a few hundred cases a year in the future.

Dr Burns said: "Imagining Scotland with no lung cancer is not trivial speculation. In the 1960s, one in 100 men died of lung cancer. Today, rates are falling all the time and thanks to the smoking ban, I expect the reduction in deaths to accelerate until dying from the disease becomes a rare occurrence.

"Anecdotal evidence shows that since the smoking ban, there has been a surge in the numbers of smokers seeking help to give up."

We now know that this "surge" was a temporary blip which was followed by two years of fewer people "seeking help to give up." It turns out that Imperial Tobacco was better at predicting the future than Harry Burns. This, also from 2006...

Imperial not worried by smoke ban

The world's fourth-largest tobacco group, Imperial Tobacco, has said it does not expect UK smoking bans to have a significant impact on business.

"We believe [UK] smokers will continue to choose to smoke regardless of regulations and our view is supported by experiences in other markets," said Imperial.

Can we expect a mea culpa from the anti-smoking campaigners who predicted a huge drop in the number of smokers, if not the elimination of lung cancer? Can we expect them to reassess their strategy in the light of yet another broken promise?

We cannot. As I have said many times, tobacco control is not a results-driven business. As in Ireland, where the smoking rate is now higher than before the ban, the anti-tobacco industry has only one response to failure—more of the same. Pell et al's conclusion epitomises this mindset.

Quit attempts increased in the three months leading up to Scotland's smoke-free legislation, resulting in a fall in smoking prevalence. However, neither has been sustained suggesting the need for additional tobacco control measures and ongoing support.

Heads, we win. Tails, you lose.

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Ireland's abject failure

Anyone remember when Ireland was tobacco control's jewel in the crown? The Irish smoking ban of 2004 was reported around the world and was supposed to lead to a "cultural change" that would see smoking gradually fizzle out. Keen to 'lead the way', Ireland has since followed the tobacco control blueprint to the letter. It's banned packs of 10, banned tobacco displays in shops and put more tax on cigarettes than any other country in the world.

The result, as previously reported here, is now official...

More smokers now than before 2004 ban

More people are smoking now than before the ban on smoking in public places was introduced six years ago, the Dáil has heard.

Minister of State for Health Áine Brady pointed to figures showing that 29 per cent of the population smoked despite the ban, the abolition of packs of fewer than 20 cigarettes, the ending of in-store displays and advertising, and the cost of cigarettes, which at €8.55 a pack “are the highest in the world”.

Although, to be fair, Ireland's slavish devotion to tobacco control policies has had some effect:

Sinn Féin health spokesman Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin described tobacco smuggling as a “huge and growing problem”

And let's not forget all those pub closures. All in all, a colossal disaster for all concerned except, perhaps, for the tobacco industry. I've said it before and I'll say it again. It's a damn good job it's not a results-driven business.

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Smoking ban might be reviewed yet

Taking Liberties and Conservative Home has got the news...

Brian Binley, MP for Northampton South, has tabled an Early Day Motion calling for a review of the smoking ban to stop the closure of so many pubs and clubs.

Over 2,000 pubs and clubs have gone to the wall in the last year and seven pubs a day are going out of business. They are under massive pressure to keep afloat and the smoking ban has further impacted on their plight.

When the bill was implemented on 1st July 2007 the Government said it would review the ban in three years' time, a review which now does not appear to be forthcoming.

Brian said: "Many pubs and clubs are finding it difficult dealing with the economic situation. The smoking ban has further impacted on many businesses and the trade is really struggling.

"I want to consider a balanced and proportionate amendment to the legislation which allows for segregated smoking rooms or areas within pubs, bars and clubs, provided that effective smoke extraction systems of an authorised standard are installed."

The EDM calls on the Government to conduct a thorough review, supported by consultation with all parties and affected business sectors on the impact the smoking ban has had on public houses and private members clubs.

Brian said: "I understand that the Government has no plans to review the smoking ban at the present time and that makes me angry. The then Health Minister promised that a review would be held three years after the implementation of the ban but the Government is now saying that it has no plans to do so. That denial is simply unacceptable.

"I have tabled this EDM to put pressure on the Government to look into the impact the ban is having on the pubs and clubs trade and to conduct an urgent review.

"The EDM also calls for any changes to the smoking ban legislation to be made on the basis of evidence, fairness and proportionality whilst recognising the importance of pubs and clubs to the nation's social life and community wellbeing."

Mr Binley, as you will gather, wants to amend the smoking ban. The Department of Health doesn't want to amend the smoking ban. Mr Binley wants a review of the ban to see how it's gone. The Department of Health doesn't. That, I think, tells you all you need to know about how the ban's gone.

In somewhat related news, Dick Puddlecote has yet more evidence to show why smoking bans do NOT correct market failure, because the market had it right to begin with.

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Another ASH myth goes up in smoke

In October 2007, ASH published a document entitled Myths and Realities of Smokefree England. The ban had been in force for only 3 months and ASH wanted to portray 'the hospitality industry and pro smoking organisations' as fear-mongerers for predicting negative effects from the smoking ban. 

In retrospect, we can see that ASH were the ones making poor predictions. Amongst the 'myths' they listed were things like 'It will be bad for pubs', 'It will be bad for bingo' and 'Working men's clubs and shisha bars will close'. I have a bridge I'd like to sell anyone who seriously thinks none of this came to pass.

One of the other 'myths' was:

Myth: There will be heavy handed enforcement with undercover officers and covert filming.

'Heavy handed' is a subjective term, but it seems reasonable to apply it here, in the light of Nick Hogan being sentenced to 6 months imprisonment for flouting the ban. 

As for 'covert filming', ASH denied that it was ever on the cards and said:

Reality: What has happened in practice is that council officials have approached the situation as they said they would, in a reasonable manner applying a 'softly softly' approach with relatively few being issued. 

But, as reported in The Times and the News of the World, the reality has been rather different, with councils using anti-terrorism laws to spy on smokers.

Smokers and tramps join 8,000 council surveillance targets

Councils carried out more than 8,500 secret snooping operations on members of the public during the past two years,including spying on dog owners, fly tippers and loan sharks, according to a report published today.

Secret surveillance operations also took place against smokers, suspected benefit fraudsters, vagrants buying alcohol for under-18s and people repairing vehicles in the street.

Councils in North Norfolk, Chesterfield, Nuneaton & Bedworth, and Merton, southwest London, used Ripa powers to snoop on people suspected of lighting up in a no-smoking area.

Councils spy on dog owners, charity donors and smokers

The Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act (RIPA) was passed nine years ago to fight terrorism. But access to these Big Brother weapons has gone to 653 bodies - with nearly 1,400 new spying missions EVERY DAY.

Dastardly criminals in the camera sights of these state-approved nosey parkers include:

SMOKERS who light up in the wrong place. Chesterfield, Falkirk, Merton, North Norfolk and Nuneaton & Bedworth councils have their beady eyes on you.

Myths and Realities of Smokefree England already has the makings of a fascinating historical document. With one or two possible exceptions that can be argued over, all of the so-called 'myths' have turned out to be true and all of ASH's 'realities' have turned out to be myths. And it took less than 3 years. 

With the review of the smoking ban coming up in July, one would hope that the chasm between what ASH said would happen and what actually happened might come under scrutiny. It should certainly make policy-makers question ASH's credibility when it comes to passing further laws. 

But since the Department of Health has all but admitted that the 'review' will be a sham and that the only serious question that will be posed is how far to extend the ban, ASH's track record will likely be ignored. 

Throughout June I'll be writing a series of articles contrasting ASH's 'myths' and 'realities' with the real situation for smokers, nonsmokers and businesses since the ban came in. Call it an unofficial review. Watch this space.

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Deborah Arnott: lying about Ireland

Deborah Arnott, Chief Executive of ASH, is interviewed in The Guardian today and comes up with a novel explanation for the smoking rate rising in Ireland since the smoking ban:

To pause is to run the risk of the numbers once again increasing: in Ireland, she tells me, the government successfully brought in smoke-free legislation, but "they didn't do anything else, and smoking started to creep back up again".

As reported previously, the smoking rate did rather more than "creep back up again". It has risen to an astonishing 33%. As for the idea that the Irish "didn't do anything else", where to begin? 

Ireland has constantly increased the price of tobacco and now has the highest rate of cigarette tax of any EU country; it has graphic warnings on cigarette packs; it has banned all forms of tobacco advertising; it has raised the age of purchase to 18 and it was the first country in the world to ban tobacco displays in shops.

It is completely untrue to say that Ireland has done nothing else since the ban. It has, in fact, done even more than the UK. And yet it is fast becoming one of Europe's heaviest smoking nations.

I don't recall ASH predicting that the smoking ban would make more people start smoking unless it was followed by an endless stream of legislation. I seem to recall them saying the smoking ban would be the nearest thing to a magic bullet. I also recall smoking rates falling for decades when ASH did very little and rising when they started doing a lot.

It looks like Arnott is rehearsing her excuses for when the smoking rate is shown to have risen in England. It's a convenient line to take: "what we wanted then didn't work because it needed to be accompanied by what we want now." It's not true, of course, and it doesn't make any sense, but that has seldom been a handicap.

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Barbecue winter

October 27, 2009

Mild winter forecast as part of 'El Nino' effect

Preliminary forecasts, which take into account the El Nino effect, predict that Britain will have a mild winter this year, with temperatures above the 38.6F (3.7C) average for December.

January 2, 2010

Britain facing one of the coldest winters in 100 years, experts predict

Britain is bracing itself for one of the coldest winters for a century with temperatures hitting minus 16 degrees Celsius, forecasters have warned.

They predicted no let up in the freezing snap until at least mid-January, with snow, ice and severe frosts dominating.

And the likelihood is that the second half of the month will be even colder.

Well done chaps. Keep up the good work.

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That didn't work, let's do it again.

On March 8 2006, an Irish anti-smoking group issued this press release:

Nearly 40,000 Irish people would quit smoking if the price of twenty cigarettes increased to €6.98. That is according to research done by the EU anti-smoking campaign, ‘HELP – For A Life Without Tobacco’, which shows that a 10% price increase in high income countries results in a 4% reduction in smoker numbers.

Professor Luke Clancy, Chairman of ASH Ireland was quoted in the release, saying:

"If we are serious about becoming a nation of non-smokers, the government has to start paying attention to the data. Price increases stop people smoking and deter young people from starting."

They got their wish, and more. Successive tax rises pushed the price of a pack of 20 well above the €6.98 they demanded. A pack now retails at €8.50. So what is the result?

A THIRD of the Irish population now smokes, a new survey reveals.

A survey of 4,082 people this summer revealed that 33pc of the Irish population had taken up or continued to smoke.

It is the highest smoking rate recorded here in the past 11 years, according to the EU's 'HELP - For A Life Without Tobacco' campaign.

Even those of us who are used to seeing tobacco control policies backfire must be astonished by how badly things are going for the anti-smoking movement in Ireland. This was supposed to be the country that would lead the world in tobacco control. It was the first country to ban smoking in public places. It has the third most expensive cigarettes in Europe. It has a tobacco display ban. And yet, in the space of five years, it has gone from being the jewel in the crown to being a failed state.

Everything that could go wrong, has gone wrong. 1,500 pubs have closed, smuggling has gone through the roof and the smoking rate has hit an eleven year high (it was at an all-time low before the ban was introduced).

So what is Luke Clancy's response?

"There is no evidence of any decline in smoking in this survey [you can say that again!], indicating a clear need for higher prices of cigarettes" 

Unbelievable.

Elsewhere, Patrick Basham and John Luik discuss whether the Irish fiasco will be repeated in Britain and Pete Robinson says that Ireland's pub crisis supports his prediction that the UK will lose 25% of its pubs by 2012.

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