Earlier this month I reported that legal cigarette sales fell by 52% between 2021 and 2025 in the UK. These are official clearance figures from HMRC and show a rate of decline which far outstrips any estimate of the decline in smoking. The conclusion is obvious: more and more smokers are buying tobacco from illicit sources.
The state-funded pressure group Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) have responded by claiming that things are not as bad as they look. The accelerated decline since 2021 is, they say, “consistent with a long-term downward trend”. While they acknowledge that “the illicit trade may also be a factor” and that “ongoing cost of living pressures may have pushed some smokers, particularly those on lower incomes, to seek out cheaper, illicit alternatives”, they insist that “declining tobacco clearances appear to be driven mainly by falling smoking prevalence and reduced consumption among those who still smoke”.
Read the rest at IEA Insider
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