Monday, 13 October 2014

Another tobacco control canard bites the dust

Back in 2012, the BBC reported that...

... campaign groups such as the UK Centre for Tobacco Control Studies (UKCTCS) and Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) say that despite years of rising tobacco duty, increases in disposable incomes mean that tobacco remains relatively more affordable than it was in the 1960s.

...Prof John Britton, director of the UKCTCS, said hitting smokers in the pocket was the best way to get them to stop.

"Price is the most effective way to encourage smokers who are thinking of quitting to make that step," he said.

"UK cigarettes are more affordable now than they were when the health risks of smoking first became known."

I have always suspected this to be a lie because (a) tobacco duty is enormous today compared to fifty years ago, and (b) most claims made by ASH turn out to be lies.

However, the data you need to test the affordability claim are surprisingly hard to find on the Office for National Statistics' website. So I was pleased to see some historic prices rear their head in the Telegraph today. And guess what...

The cost of cinema tickets, stamps and cigarettes have all grown more quickly than house prices over the past forty years, a study of inflation since the Seventies has found.
... A first-class stamp was just 3p in 1974, compared with 62p today – giving inflation of 2,067 per cent. Cigarette prices had leapt 4,370 per cent – or fortyfold – the highest rate of inflation in the comparison. The price of a pack of 20 had moved from 20p to £8.74.

... The average weekly wage had risen more slowly than all five of these high-inflation goods, up 1,616 per cent. The study indicated that £32 was normal forty years ago, while £517 was the average today.

In other words, cigarette prices have risen three times faster than the average salary. In 1974, the average weekly wage would buy you 160 packs. Today, it only buys you 59 packs.

Okay, 1974 is not quite the 1960s, but it's close enough for us to be able to file another anti-smoking factoid under F for Fib.



COP 6: Mission to Moscow

Today sees the start of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control's Sixth Conference of the Parties (COP6). If you use tobacco or vape, decisions will be made this week that affect you, but don't expect to have a say in them because you're not allowed to go.



And don't expect your elected representatives to speak for you because they won't be going either. COP6 is run by unelected bureaucrats and quangos for unelected bureaucrats and quangos.

Don't expect to hear too much about it, either. Last time this conference was held, the press were excluded. So too was that notorious tobacco front group, er, Interpol.

How fitting, then, that the conference is being held in a dark, windowless room in Moscow. In light of Russia's role in little incidents such as, y'know, shooting down passenger planes and liquidating human rights groups, the USA and Canada have done the decent thing and boycotted the shin-dig.

“We stand with the people of Ukraine and we will offer no legitimacy to the Putin regime’s actions in Ukraine when it comes to these farcical conferences that they try to pull out some legitimacy on.”

Russia's pariah status appears to have gone unnoticed by the WHO. They are far more impressed by the fact that Putin recently introduced a smoking ban.



This comes from the COP6 official Twitter feed, which is one of the few ways we, the people, can get any sense of what is going on behind those closed doors, albeit from a source that makes Pravda look impartial. Early tweets confirm that much of what is being said is plainly untrue (old men are the most likely to suffer from 'tobacco diseases')...



Much else confirms that the WHO remains bewitched by Napoleonic fantasies such as the belief that e-cigarettes are tobacco products and that illicit tobacco sales can be 'eliminated' at the stroke of a pen.



While the WHO Director-General, Margaret Chan, bangs on about Big Tobacco (and, in her own words, "Big Food, Big Soda and Big Alcohol") the Ebola outbreak continues. Under Chan, the WHO has "repeatedly voted to emphasize noncommunicable diseases such as heart disease and cancer rather than infectious diseases" and funds have been distributed accordingly (read Crampton on this).

This week will therefore provide a perfect illustration of the corruption and inanity of the modern public health movement. While a virulent infectious disease spreads, representatives of the global organisation that was set up to deal with such crises are sat in a five star hotel in a rogue state at the taxpayers' expense secretly discussing the evils of bubblegum flavourings in e-cigarette fluid.

Friday, 10 October 2014

Healthy food is expensive - if you look at it in a certain way

A few weeks ago I found myself being filmed in a New Zealand supermarket searching for a healthy meal for four. The Kiwi equivalent of The One Show wanted me to help them demonstrate how much more expensive it is to cook a nutritious meal than to eat out in a well-known hamburger chain. In fact, I was able to buy all the ingredients for a good quality, chicken stir-fry for half the price it would have cost to buy four basic fast food meals. This seemed to come as a shock to the show's presenters and, I would guess, to a fair number of viewers since it is widely believed that burgers and chips are a cheaper alternative to wholesome, home-cooked dinners.

Comparing the price of a fast food meal to the ingredients of a homemade dish is, to be perfectly candid, a bit of a cheat. What about the opportunity cost of preparing the meal? What about the financial cost of heating the oven or taking the car to the supermarket? Even if we had taken those costs into account, I suspect that the well-known hamburger chain would still have lost the battle of the bargains, but it must be conceded that the experiment was not entirely fair.

Comparing the price of 'healthy' and 'unhealthy' uncooked food in a supermarket, on the other hand, is extremely fair. Again, it is widely believed that the healthy stuff is more expensive and this perception is strengthened by headlines such as 'Healthy diet costs three times that of junk food'. Upon closer inspection, such claims are only tenable if you measure the cost of food in a rather peculiar way and if you ignore the word 'diet'.

The study that inspired this headline was published in PLoS One this week. It didn't look at the cost of a healthy meal, let alone a healthy diet. It looked at how much you would have to spend to get 1,000 calories out of various food products. By this method, lettuce—one of which I bought yesterday for 49p—comes in at a whopping £16.45 whereas energy dense foods like doughnuts and jam 'cost' less than a pound. Voila! Healthy food is more expensive than unhealthy food.

To see the problem here, we need to ask how foods come to be defined as 'unhealthy' in the first place. The study in question relies on a Food Standards Agency test which is used to decide what can and cannot be advertised on children's television. One of the key criteria is calorie content. The unhealthy foods have lots of energy in them and this is measured by how many calories there are in 100 grammes of the product. The more calories, the more likely it is to be placed on the naughty list.

Calories are not unhealthy per se, of course, but the FSA's concern is that eating energy-dense food is more likely to lead to obesity than eating low-calorie food. That's all well and good, but it doesn't give the 'healthy' food much chance of ever being cheap. Once you've decided that the price of food is dictated by how much of a calorific bang you get for your buck, low calorie food becomes expensive by definition. It is a system that guarantees that a cauliflower will always be more expensive than a pizza. A lettuce would have to be sold in the shops for less than 2p for it to become cheaper than a sponge cake by this measure.

Defining high-energy food as unhealthy and then defining cheapness as being 'food with lots of energy in it' is tautologous. You might as well declare heavy objects to be cheaper than light objects on the basis that they cost less per ounce. It would be true, but not very informative.

Low calorie foods are obviously not the best choice if you are in need of energy. Complaining that people would have to buy lots of them to get a thousand calories is to turn their virtue into a vice. It would undoubtedly be expensive to meet your recommended daily calorie allowance by eating lettuce, but it would also be horrible and probably impossible. It is precisely because lettuce is low in calories that we buy the awful, tasteless stuff. We then put it on a plate with other food to create a 'meal' and it is the cost of the meal that matters.

Food prices have certainly risen in recent years—by 8.6 per cent in real terms since 2007, according to DEFRA—but they are still lower than at any time before 2002, and the price of fruit and veg has actually fallen in the last year. To claim, as the Independent has, that 'Eating well is increasingly become the preserve of the rich' borders on the histrionic. Your local supermarket will still sell you a cauliflower for 89p, a bag of potatoes for £1.50 and a kilo of rice for 40p. If people are not eating as healthily as the Food Standards Agency would like, it is not because we feel unable to get our day's calories from the vegetable aisle. As the obesity figures show, getting enough calories is the least of Britain's problems.

[Cross-posted from the IEA lifestyle blog]


Thursday, 9 October 2014

The boring truth about food and soft drink taxes

I have a post over at the IEA Lifestyle Economics blog about a study that looked at the accumulated evidence on food and soft drink taxes. The study didn't get any media attention when it was published last year for reasons that will become obvious.

Do have a read of it.

Wednesday, 8 October 2014

Wowsers against the arts

From the ABC...

WA Opera butts out Carmen over smoking themes after securing Healthway sponsorship

The West Australian Opera has announced it will not program the opera Carmen in the next two years, after it secured $400,000 in sponsorship from Healthway, because the story features smoking.

The 1875 work by Georges Bizet is one of the world's most popular operas and the heroine, Carmen, works in a Spanish cigarette factory.

Carolyn Chard, General Manager of the WA Opera, said the company made the decision not to program the opera after it secured the two-year deal with Healthway, the state government body that sponsors arts and community organisations to promote health messages.

"Carmen is an opera that is actually set in a tobacco factory, so that does present some difficulties if you're promoting non-smoking and healthy work environments," Ms Chard told 720 ABC Perth.

"I think we were very respectful of the partnership and forward-thinking about recognising it would be in direct conflict with the aims of the Heathway support.

My first question was "why is a government health agency spending large sums of taxpayers' money on opera productions?" That question is, I suppose, answered by the news story. They do it to suppress decadent art and ensure that Australia remains A GOOD, CLEAN COUNTRY. What's a little self-imposed censorship when your government sponsor wants to promote wholesome values?

The West Australian has more from the WA Opera's general manager:

"We care about the health and wellbeing of our staff, stage performers and all the opera lovers throughout WA, which means promoting health messages and not portraying any activities that could be seen to promote unhealthy behaviour," Ms Chard said.

Upcoming productions at the WA Opera include Otello, which begins with a violent drinking session and ends with a murder and suicide, and Tosca which "contains depictions of torture, murder and suicide".

Healthway chairwoman Rosanna Capolingua not only applauded the [cough] 'voluntary' agreement, but took the opportunity to extend her wowserism to e-cigarettes:


"The portrayal of smoking on stage, in film and on TV normalises smoking and presents it as being attractive, which could dissuade smokers from quitting and encourage young people to take it up," she said.

"In addition, new trends such as smoking electronic cigarettes may re-establish smoking behaviour in our community where the majority of people are non-smokers."

She said Healthway now banned electronic cigarettes as part of its minimum health policy requirements, which meant they could not be smoked at any event Healthway sponsored.

She's the boss. When the arts become so heavily dependent on government cash, they have to do what the government wants. In the free world, that doesn't normally mean censorship of classic operas in the name of health, purity and denormalisation, but that's, er, progress for you.

Tuesday, 7 October 2014

Drinking and off licences

From the BBC:

Alcohol abuse linked to number of licensed premises

Scottish neighbourhoods with the most licensed premises have the highest rates of alcohol-related illness and deaths, according to a new study.

Death rates are more than double in areas with the most bars and off-licences, according to Alcohol Focus Scotland.

Sigh. We've been over this before. It is sometimes said that people shouldn't be allowed to become politicians until they've spent a few years in business. It is tempting to say the same of people in 'public health'.

Look, areas of high demand will have more supply. That is as true of alcohol as it is of any other product. If supply was sufficient to create demand then alcohol retailers would open more and more off licences everywhere until they were evenly distributed across the country on a per capita basis. They don't do that because they follow demand instead. Off licences are more densely concentrated in certain areas for the same reason that bookmakers, coffee shops and Polish food shops are more concentrated in certain areas, ie. because that's where the customers are.

Just as the alcohol retail industry cannot expect to increase aggregate demand by opening a new off licence, temperance activists should not expect to reduce aggregate demand by closing them down. Alas they do expect that because they're simple folk who believe, like every temperance crusader before them, that demand for alcohol is somehow created by the sneaky alcohol industry. Hence their quixotic battle against availability and advertising that flies in the face of everything we know about the workings of markets.

Today's study is a very similar to a study produced by Alcohol Concern three years ago that was widely, and rightly, derided. I wrote at the time...

This is such a blatant conflation of correlation and causation that even Ben Goldacre—who never criticises 'public health' bad science and sometimes defends it—emerged to poke fun at it.


A red-faced Don Shenker knew exactly what he was talking about and replied...


To which Goldacre rightly responded...


As Straight Statistics points out, Alcohol Concern quite explicitly did claim causality:

Under the heading Methodological Qualifications, the new report states: “This study did not set out to establish cause and effect.” Yet the previous page asserts that nearly 10 per cent of all alcohol specific hospital admissions in England, excluding London, are directly attributable to off-licence density, “meaning availability rather than any other external factor is the cause of one in ten of such harms”.

On the last page of the new study, there is a brief acknowledgement that "we cannot conclude that the relationship is causal". Such a tokenistic note of caution was not reflected in the lead author's comments to the press, which strongly implied causation and emphasised the policy implications that the study was obviously designed to push:

"The strong relationship we found between alcohol outlets and related health outcomes leads us to suggest that reducing outlet numbers, particularly in the highest availability neighbourhoods, could have health benefits for the Scottish population."

Meanwhile, the head of Alcohol Focus Scotland (a state-funded sock puppet pressure group) told the BBC...

"If we want fewer people to end up in hospital or lose their lives because of alcohol, then we have to be concerned about the high number of alcohol outlets in our neighbourhoods.

"Licensing boards have a key role to play in regulating the overall number of licensed premises and their decisions should be informed by studies such as this."

It would be unwise to base any decision on this study. At best, it appears to state the bleeding obvious, but it is actually worse than that. It doesn't even make sense on its own terms. The obvious way to conduct a study on outlet density is to look at how many people there are for every outlet. This study doesn't do that. Instead it looks at the number of outlets in an 800 metre radius with no regard for population size.

Using this methodology, densely populated cities like Glasgow and Edinburgh are shown to have denser concentrations of off licences. This is pretty much inevitable. It would not be surprising if there were more outlets in areas where there are a disproportionately large number of (heavy) drinkers, but this study doesn't even show that. It just shows that there are more outlets in areas where there are more people.

But if you look at it on the basis of people per off licence, the picture is very different. Glasgow has an off licence for every 1,158 people and Edinburgh has an off licence for every 1,059 people. In Orkney and the Shetlands, however, the figures are 559 and 533 respectively (I have derived these figures from the data in the study—the authors do not cite them directly).

It may well be the case that large, industrial cities have higher levels of alcohol-related disease than small, rural communities, but there are plenty of factors you could attribute that to before you resort to blaming large populations for needing a large number of shops.

Taxpayers pay tax

The Observer reports on a deal that was allegedly struck between Imperial Tobacco and the government of Laos in 2001 that has left tobacco taxes lower than they might otherwise have been...

UK cigarette firm praised over Laos tobacco tax deal

A British tobacco giant has been praised for saving taxpayers in Laos, one of Asia's poorest countries, tens of millions of pounds, having struck a special tax deal with its government lasting a quarter of a century.

You might have guessed that I made a few amendments to the text. The original story read as follows...

UK cigarette firm criticised over Laos tobacco tax deal

A British tobacco giant has been accused of depriving taxpayers in Laos, one of Asia's poorest countries, of tens of millions of pounds, having struck a special tax deal with its government lasting a quarter of a century.

Memo to The Observer: taxpayers are people who pay tax, not the governments that receive the revenue.