Friday, 21 November 2025

The WHO is a billion dollars in the red

 

Among the many lowlights at this year's WHO anti-nicotine shindig was the Framework Convention Alliance giving New Zealand the Dirty Ashtray award for repealing the ludicrous generational tobacco ban while giving Mexico the Orchid Award for making a speech about how ghastly the tobacco industry is. New Zealand's smoking rate has been falling fast and is now one of the lowest in the world. Mexico's smoking rate has been rising. 

But Mexico banned e-cigarettes this year and that's good enough for the WHO. In tobakko kontrol, it's process and intentions that count, not outcomes. (See this article for the hilarious response of Beowulf scholar turned "public health" expert Janet Hoek to New Zealand's "national shame".)

The poor old WHO isn't doing too well these days. In a document circulated to member states, it says that it has a $1.06 billion shortfall and is having to make cuts. They include: 

2,371 job losses and a 28% reduction in headcount. The WHO's Regional Office in Africa is bearing the brunt (who cares about Africa, eh?) with a 25% reduction in staff, but Europe is not far behind with 24%.

The WHO's leadership team was reduced by around 50% in June.

The number of WHO units will be cut from 206 to 127.

The Assistant Director-General post on Universal Health Coverage, Communicable and Noncommunicable Diseases has been abolished. 'NCDs' are now the responsibility of Britain's Jeremy Farrar who is a good fit for the WHO because he likes sucking up to China.

Monika Kosinska, who was WHO's Cross-Cutting Lead for Economic and Commercial Determinants of Health (the ultimate non-job?), is now WHO Global Technical Lead on Social Determinants and Health Equity. Long time readers might recall Monika from her days at the European Public Health Alliance, which is also in turmoil these days. Jinx?
 

The WHO says that it aims to "build on assessed contributions, diversify funding sources, and streamline grant management through technology". Don't be surprised if Bloomberg steps up with some more cash to tighten his stranglehold on the organisation. 

Meanwhile, the New Zealand government has cut the budget of its temperance groups. I'll drink to that.

Have a great weekend!



"Good riddance" is not an economic policy

Sky Bet is relocating to Malta where it can enjoy an effective corporation tax rate of around 5 per cent rather than the 25 per cent it is currently paying in Leeds. The move comes after months of lobbying for higher gambling taxes and credible rumours that Rachel Reeves will increase remote gambling duty in next week’s Budget. Gambling operators cannot avoid paying duty on the Gross Gambling Yield generated by customers in the UK (which is essentially revenue, not profit), but they don’t have to be headquartered in the UK.

Since most gambling companies are based offshore and the government has done nothing to dampen talk of remote gambling duty going up from 19 per cent to 25 per cent or more, it should have taken no one by surprise when Sky Bet decided to flee the country. And yet the Chair of the Treasury Select Committee, Meg Hillier MP, was completely blindsided. “I’m pretty astounded,” she told ITV News. “The betting industry appeared in front of the Treasury Select Committee just a couple of weeks ago, extolling the virtues about how much tax they’re paying in the UK. And here we see a company going and offshoring. It rather takes the biscuit doesn’t it?”

The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) did indeed appear before her committee last month, as I reported at the time, but it takes a tin ear to think that they were merely boasting when they explained that their members pay an effective tax rate of between 65 per cent and 80 per cent. They explicitly said: “The BGC’s role is to highlight to the Committee and the Treasury the negative impacts of any additional tax rises on the whole of the betting and gaming industry and the jobs it supports.” Mrs Hillier apparently misheard this as: “We pay lots of tax and would be delighted to pay some more.”

 
Read the rest at The Critic


Sunday, 16 November 2025

COP 11 starts this week

The WHO’s big biennial tobacco conference kicks off this week in Geneva. A global tobacco conference wouldn’t be a bad idea right now. In a sane world, governments would be getting together to discuss how things are going so badly wrong and how to correct their mistakes.

Led astray by fanatics, a growing number of countries are seeing unintended consequences that are too disastrous to deny. Australia is the most dramatic example, but the black market in tobacco in Britain is also now a major source of criminal activity. Here are just some of the BBC stories from the last month involving the illegal sale of cigarettes:

Mini market closed after illegal cigarettes seized

Man jailed over illegal cigarettes and tobacco

£30,000 of illegal tobacco and vapes seized

Illegal vapes and cigarettes worth £60,000 seized

Illegal goods worth £280k netted in city shop raids

Arrests made and goods seized in police raids

Mini-mart crime network a ‘pull factor’ for illegal migrants, say MPs

Illicit cigarettes found under fake shop floors

Hundreds arrested in High Street crime crackdown

High Street action uncovers £75k of illegal goods

In countries such as France and the Netherlands, the illicit trade is similarly spiralling out of control. In Eastern Europe, balloons are being used to smuggle tobacco into neighbouring countries. In India, a WHO-approved ban on vapes has predictably led to a “rampant unregulated gray/black market”.

Tobacco duty receipts are declining, but in many countries smoking rates are holding steady. In the EU, the smoking rate has barely budged in a decade.

Faced with the consequences of its own actions, the anti-smoking lobby has shoved its head deeper into the sand. The secretariat for the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) has set out its stall for the eleventh Conference of the Parties (COP 11) by proposing some “forward-looking measures” that are just different flavours of prohibition. The real solution is to make smoking reasonably affordable while encouraging the use of low and ultra-low risk nicotine products like pouches and vapes. Instead, under the influence of Mike Bloomberg’s billions, they are demanding ludicrous policies such as putting health warnings on individual cigarettes and banning cigarette filters.

A newly minted tobacco control lie is that the very concept of harm reduction is the invention of the “nicotine industry” and that harm reduction is an “industry narrative”. This is now the line that loyal foot soldiers must take, despite the WHO’s definition of tobacco control being…
 

“a range of supply, demand and harm reduction strategies that aim to improve the health of a population by eliminating or reducing their consumption of tobacco products and exposure to tobacco smoke”.

 
It is hard to believe that the WHO will get away with this shameless volte-face but through sheer repetition they will probably achieve it. Expect to hear this lie repeated again and again during COP 11 until it becomes the new truth.

The WHO is no longer very interested in reducing people’s “consumption of tobacco products”. It is now focused on reducing people’s consumption of products that contain no tobacco, do not produce “tobacco smoke”, and are substitutes for tobacco products. It is debatable whether this is even within the remit of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control - given the WHO’s own definition of “tobacco control” - but it is certainly counter-productive and a threat to individual liberty. As I argued recently, it is quite possible that there would be fewer smokers around today if there had never been an anti-smoking movement.

As with the last two COP meetings, I will be in town with an impressive array of experts to have a reality-based discussion about what governments should do to heal their self-inflicted wounds, cut crime and improve health. The public and media are always banned from attending the conference (!), and it is anyone’s guess who will be on the UK’s delegation, but we’ll be doing our best to report on what’s happening and will be live-streaming a series of interviews and panel discussions throughout the week, so keep an eye on YouTube if this is your kind of thing.

 

Cross-posted from the Snowdon Substack 



Friday, 7 November 2025

Black market gambling

Following yesterday's blog post, I bring more news from the dumpster fire of Select Committees. The Treasury Select Committee has published its report on gambling taxes. Its key recommendation is that "Remote Gaming Duty and Machine Gaming Duty (Standard and Higher rates) are always set at a higher rate than Gaming Duty". Since the highest band for land-based casino Gaming Duty is 50%, this implies a rate of at least 51% for fruit machines and online betting which would destroy bingo halls, arcades and much of the bookmaking industry. (Current rates are 15-25%).
 
Can this really be what they're suggesting? The committee mentions the fact that "when the gross gaming yield at a UK-based casino passes certain thresholds, the Gaming Duty (GD) those casinos face ranges from 15% up to 50% on any additional profit", so they seem to be aware that 50% is the maximum Gaming Duty for land-based gambling. 
 
The committee has fallen for the guff spouted by anti-gambling campaigners at the recent oral evidence sessions (which I wrote about at the time). The report says, for example...
 
Mr Kenny, the retired co-founder of Paddy Power, confirmed this approach by industry, noting that “[W]hen I campaigned for the gambling industry, I always used to talk about black markets and job losses. We saw it again when the FOBT [Fixed Odds Betting Terminal] legislation was brought in: “Oh, this will close all the shops,” but it didn’t. It is a bit of scaremongering.”
 
But it wasn't. Britain lost a third of its betting shops after the FOBT stake limits were dropped. No one said it would close all of them, but anti-gambling activists wrongly predicted that it would close only a few of them. 
 
If the committee allows this rewriting of history, it makes you wonder whether the negative consequences of higher taxes will be similarly memory-holed in the future. 
 
The committee cites a fairly recent study to support its belief that the industry is crying wolf. 
 
However, a recent paper in the Harm Reduction Journal noted research arguing that “[ … ] narratives advancing a threat of black-market provision of gambling [are] a form of ‘regulatory resistance’. Regulatory resistance is characterised by industry-led argumentation, often using industry-generated evidence, and arguments that reduced regulation can ‘protect’ the industry from the black market.” 
 
The authors of that paper are actually quoting some British academics who have seen which way the wind is blowing and are treating gambling like a "public health" issue. Their study is one of many that makes the apparently shocking discovery that people will use arguments favourable to their cause when seeking to persuade others (sample line: "Focus on so-called ”black markets” is part of a wider industry “playbook” whereby companies deploy strategies to resist regulation and to undermine public health initiatives." Blah, blah, blah.) 
 
The authors of the Harm Reduction Journal are of a similar mind, but they make an important statement that the committee appears to have missed.  
 

Our best attempt to estimate the maximum ‘bearable’ rate of taxation produced an estimate lying around the 30% threshold, which is nearly the double of what was predicated by previous studies (e.g., 15% [13]).

 
In other words, the authors of the study the committee is citing say that the 'bearable' rate of tax is much lower than the committee is proposing while other studies suggest that gambling taxes may already be too high.
 
Finally, the committee publish a graph apparently showing no correlation between gaming duty rates and 'black market' gambling. It is not clear what the selection criteria was for this, but there are obviously a lot of countries missing. Moreover, it's not just gaming duty but the overall tax burden that really matters.
 
 
The vertical axis stops at 40%, which is below the committee's recommended tax rate, and two countries with higher tax rates are conspicuously absent. France and the Netherlands were both mentioned in the unfathomably influential Social Market Foundation report  (which the committee cites) as countries to emulate. As the SMF says, "the Netherlands is changing its remote tax rate from 30.5% to 37.8% in 2025...  And France has a remote sports betting rate of 55% – increased to over 59% in 2025."
 
How are those two nations getting on? The situation in the Netherlands has been such a fiasco that the head of the SMF begged the committee to ignore it. The Dutch now do half their gambling on the black market, according to the Netherlands Gambling Authority. Meanwhile in France... 
 
France’s Illegal Gambling Market Surpasses Regulated Sector as Calls for Reform Grow  
 
France’s illegal online gambling market has overtaken the regulated sector for the first time, according to new data from the Association française des jeux en ligne (AFJEL). The group estimates 5.4 million players now use unlicensed websites generating about €2 billion in gross gaming revenue (GGR) in 2025 — a 25% increase since 2023.
 
Great success!
 
Still, these are only real world case studies from near neighbours who have done more or less exactly what the Treasury Select Committee wants. What could we possibly have to learn from them?


Thursday, 6 November 2025

Chris van Tulleken and the slippery slope

 

I suspect that if more people saw what goes on in Select Committee meetings there would be an armed insurrection. I've watched two recently, one from Canada where some insufferable politicians want to put cancer warnings on alcohol, and one in Britain where the Health and Social Care Select Committee is holding an inquiry into "food and weight management"
 
This is how political pygmies distract themselves from the real business of government. Outside, prisoners are released by accident, the national debt is approaching three trillion pounds and the NHS consumes record funding to no great effect. Inside, politicians talk to idiotic nanny statists about "ultra-processed food".
 
Economic growth has been essentially non-existent for years and the price of food has risen by 37% since 2020. And yet the Select Committee wants to tax food and ban advertising. To an outsider, this seems like a form of madness or a conspiracy against the public. It only starts to make sense when you realise that they all read the same things and listen to the same people. The Health Select Committee has had two days of hearings. Every single person who "gave evidence" is a zealot or a professional activist. There were three people from Jamie Oliver's front group Bite Back, two who used to work at the tiny pressure group Action on Sugar, two from the devious Food Foundation and one of the clowns from Nesta. None of the food industry's millions of satisfied customers appear to have been invited.
 
 
I didn't recognise any of the MPs and it was impossible tell which parties they represented because they all hold the same statist views. So did the witnesses, of course. This all gives the politicians the illusion of consensus which will only be shattered when their policies are implemented and the public becomes aware of them (look at the backlash against the ban on drink refills, for example, which is a far more modest measure than anything discussed by this committee).
 
The star turn was Chris van Tulleken. Several MPs said how impressed they were by his ridiculous, error strewn book. One of the few positive things that can be said about van Tulleken is that he is upfront about what he wants. He brought along a pack of cigarettes, some wholegrain bread and a can of baked beans, products which he admits are "not entirely equivalent" but equivalent enough for him to want to do to food everything that has been done to tobacco.  
 
 
He also made the important admission that health warnings are not really about giving people useful information but about demonising certain products so that more regulation and taxes can be applied to them. Again, the model is - quite explicitly and despite decades of slippery slope denial - tobacco. What will it take for the food industry to wake from its slumber?
 
 
When asked if there are any food brands that would be allowed to advertise under his regime, van Tulleken struggled to think of any. He even claimed that "very credible nutrition academics" think that all food advertising should be prohibited. 
 

Opinion differs on what drives van Tulleken's increasingly demented campaign against brown bread. Some say he is a grifter trying to sell copies of his book. Others say he is an attention seeker. My view has always been that he has an unhealthy relationship with food and suffers from orthorexia nervosa. He casually mentions in his book that he has been known to make himself vomit so he can eat more food, i.e. he has (or has had) bulimia, but seems to think that this is perfectly normal.

Giving evidence, he admits that he has the self-control of a six year old when it comes to ice cream. The video below is telling in several ways, not least in that he assumes that his experience is universal and that it is the fault of Big Food for making food too delicious. He reckons that ice cream, which has been around for centuries, is tasty because it is "engineered using brain scanners".
 
 
Even if he were less wrong about the science and policy, this is not someone MPs should be listening to.




Wednesday, 5 November 2025

Dewi Evans' unpublished letter to Private Eye

Private Eye's M.D. (Phil Hammond) is obsessed with the Lucy Letby case and has now published more than 30 lengthy (by Private Eye's standards) articles about it. They are getting rather repetitive so you'd think the magazine would be interested in some fresh content from someone who has an intimate knowledge of the case.

And yet when Dewi Evans, one of the key prosecution witnesses whom Hammond has bitterly attacked, wrote a letter to Private Eye, the editor chose not to publish it, although it did print a weird letter about the case from someone who inferred something from the way someone said something. Dr Evans has shared his letter with me and it is published below with his permission.

 

17 October 2025 

Letters
Private Eye

The Editor

I am at a loss to understand Dr Phil Hammond’s excitable article in this week’s edition of The Eye, which relate to events surrounding the collapse and death of the infant known as Baby C.

The clinical facts are straightforward. Baby C was a tiny baby who was responding satisfactorily to treatment for pneumonia until his unexpected collapse. My preliminary report dated 7 Nov 2017 noted that “I have concerns regarding the unexpected collapse of [Baby C] at around 23.00 hr on 13 June 2015”. I added that “I would advise scrutinising the staffing present at the time”. Lucy Letby’s name as a ‘suspect’ was not known to me at the time, and there was no record of her presence in the infant’s clinical notes.

Cheshire Police’s attention to detail confirmed that the infant’s collapse occurred when in Lucy Letby’s presence, after the baby’s designated nurse had gone for a break. Lucy Letby’s involvement was noted in more detail in evidence given at the Thirlwall Inquiry [9 October 2024].

An x-ray taken 36 hours before the baby’s collapse noted a large ‘gas bubble’ in the stomach. The cause of the bubble has been the source of considerable discussion. Irrespective of its cause its presence cannot explain his collapse. Several clinical markers during the 36 hours after the x-ray was taken noted an encouraging improvement in his condition. His heart and breathing rates were within the normal range for a baby of his size. His oxygen saturations were in the high 90s. His oxygen requirements were falling, being just 25% just before his collapse. Encouragingly, he was deemed well enough to be taken out of his incubator for ‘skin to skin’ contact with his mother on the afternoon of his collapse and the day before.

An injection of air into the stomach would compromise the breathing of a tiny baby, quickly destabilising him. An injection of air directly into the bloodstream would be even more catastrophic. Whilst one cannot exclude the former the latter explanation is a more likely explanation for his collapse. One cannot rule out the possibility of his suffering from a combination of both. Either is indicative of inflicted injury, where the perpetrator would know that their action would place a vulnerable baby in harm’s way. This evidence led to the jury finding Lucy Letby guilty of the baby’s murder.

It's regrettable that Dr Hammond made no effort to get in touch with me prior to publishing his article. If he cares to get in touch with Cheshire Police, the CPS, or the Prosecution team, I am sure they would confirm the sequence of events I have described above, thus setting the record straight.

Sincerely

Dewi Evans



Tuesday, 4 November 2025

See you in Hell, European Alcohol Policy Alliance!

Some excellent news from Brussels where the European Commission is pulling funding from more NGOs...
 

Eurocare announces closure of its Brussels office amid funding difficulties

The Board of Eurocare have announced that due to constraints on its funding it will no longer be able to maintain an office in Brussels and will be letting go its paid staff members from the end of the year. 

 
Eurocare AKA the European Alcohol Policy Alliance is a major part of the global temperance network established by Derek Rutherford. It has been kept afloat by unwitting taxpayers for years and is currently run by Florence Berteletti who used to run the Smoke Free Partnership (no slippery slope, eh?). Hopefully she is now out of a job and the Smoke Free Partnership will also be closed down because, as Politico reports... 
 
The Commission confirmed in July that it would be scrapping its operating grants — cash that goes toward daily overhead costs like staff salaries — for all health NGOs, despite signaling to many organizations that it would continue to fund them this year.
 
Haha! Afuera! 
 
Although Eurocare claims to be "funded by a combination of membership fees and EU grants", it seems to have had only two donors last year: the European Commission and a Norwegian temperance group - and the Norwegian temperance group was overwhelmingly funded by the Norwegian government. The European Public Health Alliance has already bitten the dust after losing its EU grant (and everybody falling out with each other in its toxic workplace). The rest of these tax-spongers wowsers won't be far behind. 
 
In the UK, Alcohol Concern vanished as soon as its Department of Health grants were withdrawn and ASH have said that they would have to look at shutting down if their own DHSC grants were pulled. Isn't it strange that organisations which supposedly fight for popular causes can't survive on donations from the public? It's almost as if the general public don't consider lobbying for illiberal, killjoy policies to be a good cause at all!
 


Monday, 3 November 2025

The big lies of ASH

 

ASH News


Hazel Cheeseman, the head of Britain's most dishonest pressure group ASH, has taken to the pages of The Grocer to tell small retailers what is good for them. You might think that owners of convenience stores know their business and customers better than someone who has only ever worked in public affairs, but the say-anything, do-anything prohibitionists at ASH have long maintained that selling cigarettes is holding corner shops back. Cheeseman writes...
 
Big Tobacco is out in force telling retailers what to think about impending changes to the law. 
 
And the pot is out in force calling the kettle black. 
 
As you may have heard, the government is phasing out the sale of tobacco to the next generation, which means by 2027 no one born before 2009 can be legally sold tobacco.
 
We’ve all seen the articles and the adverts from tobacco manufacturers painting a picture of doom over these proposed changes. And behind the scenes, no doubt, there are countless emails, letters, and visits from company reps pushing the same message: that stronger tobacco regulation spells disaster for business.
 
But the real burden on retailers isn’t regulation – it’s reliance on tobacco itself. Cigarettes might bring in footfall, but they deliver some of the lowest margins in retail, often just 6%. Smokers are quick, transactional customers; they buy their pack and leave.
 
About 80% of the price of a pack of cigarettes is tax. The retailer obviously doesn't get a share of that. But if a pack of cigarettes is £15, a 6% share is 90p. Not bad for a quick transaction. Since the actual product only costs about £3, the pre-tax profit margin is 30%. If ASH wants retailers to have a bigger post-tax profit margin, it should call for tobacco duty to be cut. 
 
By contrast, the same customers who quit smoking or switch to legal vapes tend to buy more, such as food to go, coffee, groceries and snacks. Every time that happens, both retailer and customer are better off. 
 
Ex-smokers obviously spend their money on other things. The problem for small retailers is that people can buy 'food to go', coffee, groceries and snacks in lots of places whereas smokers go specifically to local corner shops to buy their snouts. Most corner shops don't sell hot food and coffee at all. 
 
In any case, retailers are not so much worried about people quitting smoking as they are about smokers evading tobacco duty (and, in the future, bypassing the ridiculous generational ban) by buying cigarettes on the illicit market.
 
When display bans and plain packaging were first introduced, the same scare stories were rolled out. Yet the evidence tells a different story. ASH’s retailer survey, conducted by an independent market research firm with 900 small retailers, found 74% said the display ban had no negative impact or even helped their business, and 75% said the same about plain packs. Retailers adapted and carried on trading successfully.
 
Neither of these stupid policies had an impact on the smoking rate, although the display ban did make it easier for retailers to sell illicit cigarettes. That was good news for some shops but presumably not for the legitimate businessmen who read The Grocer and who are losing a lot of money to a black market that ASH barely acknowledges the existence of.
 
The illicit trade myth
 
At ASH we are not remotely complacent about the illegal tobacco market. 
 
Yes you are. You have to be to do your corrupt job.
 
It brings crime into our communities, undermines legitimate trade and keeps people smoking. Illicit trade is a real issue – but it’s not caused by sensible regulation. In fact, illicit tobacco consumption has dropped by almost 90% since 2000-01, even as tax and regulation have tightened. 
 
If you believe that, you will be believe literally anything. Legal cigarette sales nearly halved between 2021 and 2024. The black market is quite obviously big and getting bigger. 
 
The best way to end the illicit trade in tobacco, possibly the only way, is to end the demand for tobacco.
 
Indeed it is the only way. But the Tobacco and Vapes Bill doesn't tackle demand. It is all about controlling supply, and we know what happens when supply is artificially restricted while demand remains high. The UK is already a cautionary tale, but Australia, with its even higher tobacco taxes and total ban on vapes, is the ultimate shipwreck that the rest of the world can use as a lighthouse. 
 
On the same day that Cheeseman's article was published, The Australian published this... 
 
Tobacco taxes backfire as black market cripples retail giants
 
Australia’s two biggest supermarket chains have recorded a collapse in tobacco sales, blaming Labor’s aggressive tax hikes and the booming black market for hollowing out legitimate trade.
 
Coles and Woolworths both reported more than 50 per cent declines in tobacco revenue over the past year – the sharpest fall on record – with the retailers saying cigarettes were priced so high that smokers have turned to untaxed, criminally supplied alternatives.
 
Amazingly, these retailers have not been selling enough coffee and 'food to go' to make up the shortfall. 
 
Woolworths revealed a 51.1 per cent plunge in sales for the first quarter, while Coles reported a 57 per cent decline, saying tobacco products now made up less than 2 per cent of total sales.
 
“New tobacco legislation and growth in the illicit market led to a 57 per cent decline in tobacco sales compared to the prior corresponding period with tobacco sales this quarter now less than 2 per cent of total sales,” Coles noted in its first-quarter trading update.
 
Nothing to see here, eh Hazel? 
 
Woolworths chief executive Amanda Bardwell said the decline in tobacco sales was “accelerating” when asked about the plunging figures during her full-year results announcement. “We’re still navigating some near-term challenges, particularly the material reduction in tobacco sales,” she said. 
“It’s been well-discussed by others, but the decline in tobacco sales is accelerating and the current regulatory settings, and continued illegal sales, is evident in our performance.”

The collapse follows The Australian’s investigation into the black market, which revealed convenience stores recorded a $2bn collapse in legal tobacco sales.
 
It is frankly shameful that politicians and the British media have avoided mentioning the real world fiasco that has been unfolding in Australia while the Tobacco and Vapes Bill has been rolling through Parliament. The government pays more attention to the fabulist propaganda of ASH than to what is actually happening in another country.
 

 


Friday, 31 October 2025

Desperate gamblers?

  
I'm not sure why the Lords were talking about gambling this week, but it seems that they were because Natalie "brain fade" Bennett treated the House to her thoughts.
 
 
Bennett is appalled that the most common reason given by gamblers for their gambling is to win a lot of money. She interprets this as a sign of "desperation" and describes gambling - which the state is "allowing"[!] - as a "tax on desperation". For some reason she failed to mention the second most common reason reported in the Gambling Survey for Great Britain...
 

Gambling ‘for the chance to win big money’ and ‘because it’s fun’ remain the most popular reasons given as to why respondents gambled.

 
The same survey found that 48% of Brits gambled in the past 4 weeks, two-thirds of whom played the National Lottery. What other reason could someone have to play the lottery than winning big money? That is the whole point of lotteries. It is how the government markets the lottery (other forms of gambling cannot induce punters with the explicit promise of big wins but the state exempts itself from this restriction, as it does from so many other rules). It is the hope of a big win that makes the National Lottery fun, despite it having the worst odds you'll ever come across.
 
 
Meanwhile, left-wing think tanks in Derek Webb's orbit are demanding higher taxes on gambling in the full knowledge that this will lead to punters being given "poorer odds" and a "poorer deal". And yet somehow this will not damage the gambling industry and won't draw gamblers to the black market.  I've written about them for The Critic.
 
 



Wednesday, 29 October 2025

Look Back in Anger: The Conservatives and the nanny state

I was on a panel at the Tory conference earlier this month discussing the nanny state with two (pretty sound) Conservative MPs. Much of it was given over to how dreadful the Tories were in office, and why not? Now let the healing begin. 

 



Sunday, 26 October 2025

Tobacco prohibition and public opinion

FOREST have released the results of a survey they commissioned to gauge support for the generational tobacco ban that is the centrepiece of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill. The majority of respondents are, quite sensibly, against it. 59% of respondents said that people aged 18 or over should be allowed to buy tobacco.

Opinion polls are notorious for using leading questions, and people who respond to surveys are (a) easily swayed (b) afflicted by social desirability bias and (c) unlikely to think about second order consequences. It could be argued that the question above primes people to agree with adults being able to do things by listing some other things adults can do. But the survey also asked a question that is about as neutral as it could be. It describes what the government is planning and asked if they agree with it. Only 35% of respondents did, although note that support for people being allowed to buy tobacco at the age of 18 drops to 25% when they are offered the alternative of a 21 year age limit. 
 
 
People also understand that prohibition, even if introduced gradually, fuels the black market.
 

 And they can understand why smokers' tax morale is at rock bottom.
 
 
When the state-funded prohibitionists at ASH commission studies, they find majority support for the generational ban. How do they do it? Actually, it's not clear how they do it because they don't always publish the wording of their surveys. In May, they announced that their YouGov survey found "overwhelming public support for a bold smokefree future" and that "two-thirds of the public (68%) back the ‘Smokefree Generation’ policy". 
 
But the report ASH published did not give the wording of the question. All it said was that people "support the Smokefree Generation". If all they were asked was whether they supported the "Smokefree Generation", I suppose that's unsurprising. Were they told what that meant? 
 
We may never know. The survey is not available on the YouGov website, which doesn't seem like best practice to me. The media shouldn't give any coverage to opinion polls unless it is clear what questions have been asked.
  


Monday, 20 October 2025

The battle for the gambling levy millions

Last month the gambling journalist Zak Thomas-Akoo revealed that the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) has been changing the terms of its grant applications under pressure from anti-gambling academics and campaigners. 

Thanks to the mandatory gambling industry level, the UKRI has £10 million to distribute to anyone who wants to research "gambling and gambling-related harm". It's a huge amount of money for a niche academic area and "public health" researchers are fighting like rats in a sack to get hold of it. This is why people who have never written about gambling before have suddenly taken an interest in the topic. A slew of articles about why gambling should be treated as a "public health" issue have appeared in medical journals in the last couple of years, all of which have been characterised by ignorance about problem gambling as a psychological disorder and robotic incantations about treating it like tobacco (this is a particularly comic example). 

The UKRI doesn't give researchers much of a steer on what kind of research it wants or which specific areas it thinks need studying, but it does make some stipulations. When it created its webpage to attract researchers in June 2025, it originally said:
 

Applications must be consortia based and must bring together diverse people, institutions, expertise, experiences, places, and wider stakeholders. This includes people with lived and learned experience from gambling and gambling related harms.

By lived experience, we mean people with direct experience of gambling related harms. Partnerships with non-HEI [higher education institution] organisations and people across the third sector, community groups, industry, and the public sector are essential.

 
If you're a regular reader, you can probably guess which word triggered "public health" academics. Industry. It is one of the ten commandments of "public health" that industry does not get a seat at the table, and yet here was the UKRI saying that partnerships with industry are essential.
 
If researchers want data on how people gamble and how the sector is evolving, some co-operation with industry is clearly necessary, but the UKRI was flooded with complaints from moral busybodies. According to Thomas-Akoo, the webpage was changed three days later "to define industry far more broadly than was previously implied, meaning “any enterprise that places goods or services on a market and whose commercial activities constitute more than 20% of its annual operations.”" This means that researchers can form partnerships with all sorts of pressure groups, non-profit organisations and charities that are not part of the gambling industry and may be extremely anti-gambling. But they could do that anyway, so it seemed odd that the UKRI felt the need to change the small print like this. It looks like they were trying to appease to anti-gambling lobby, which is never easy.
 
In September, Private Eye (which repeats anything the anti-gambling coalition tells it) reported that "a group of gambling reform campaigners" had written to Peter Kyle - who was the Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology until recently - to moan about the UKRI being insufficiently ideological. The UKRI had even had the nerve to talk about "individual risk factors" for problem gambling! For shame!
 

I have now seen some of these letters (released under FOI). What they reveal above all is a sense of entitlement. The activists and academics simply assume that the only way to look at gambling is as a tobacco-adjacent commercial determinant of health and that the only suitable framework is the relatively novel, untested and ill-defined "public health" approach to "gambling harm". 
 
A letter from some unnamed academics is a case in point. They assert that the very idea of gambling "harm" being a "product of individual vulnerabilities" has been "discredited" and that because OHID and the NHS "follow a public health approach to preventing gambling harm", everybody else should do the same. 
 
OHID and the NHS are, of course, health agencies so it is hardly surprising that they have endorsed the "public health" approach, but that doesn't justify ignoring decades of research showing that problem gambling is a complex psychological disorder that is often associated with other psychological disorders and can be treated by psychologists (which is what the NHS gambling clinics actually do). The UKRI doesn't need to spend £10 million a year for a bunch of nanny state blowhards to produce "research" which concludes that gambling advertising should be banned and gamblers should be given deposit limits (which is what they mean by "upstream prevention" and "plugging policy gaps"). These people are so predictable that their studies write themselves, but they do not extend the field of human knowledge.
 
The fact is that the "public health framing" is just one way to look at the issue and not a very fruitful one. When they talk about "the structural drivers of harm at a population level", they mean the legal gambling industry. It has always been odds on that the levy money would be used by activist-academics to provide a scientific fig leaf for bone-headed prohibitions that have already been decided upon. This is Year Zero for them and it is why they want any academic who is "linked to industry" excluded. Gambling research has traditionally been funded by industry, albeit usually through arm's length bodies like GambleAware. If the academics who have done gambling research in the past - most of which is more serious and nuanced than the junk that will be produced from now on - are "excluded from bidding for funds", the new wave of ideologues can start with a clean slate. It's not about conflicts of interest, it's about getting rid of the old guard.
 
 
Who will decide who the "industry actors and their intermediaries" are? They will, of course, and over time the scope will be expanded to the point where anyone who disagrees with them becomes "industry" by definition (as had happened with smoking and vaping). 
 
The APPG on Gambling Harm wrote a letter along similar lines and using the same buzzwords. Like the academics, they assert that there is only one way to look at gambling and that is by embracing the "public health approach".
 

A common rhetorical trick used by anti-gambling campaigners these days is to portray the traditional approach of focusing on individuals as "stigmatising" while at the same time stigmatising gambling and demonising gambling companies. A typical example of this is in the APPG letter.
 

These groups are essentially trying to bully the UKRI into excluding anyone who disagrees with them by pretending that the "public health approach" is the only game in town and that treating gambling disorder as a problem for individuals is socially unacceptable.
 
The letter from Peers for Gambling Reform is more or less a carbon copy of the APPG's letter. It complains that the UKRI has "overlooked ... commercial practices and products". This is only true insofar as the UKRI doesn't specify any particular research agenda or framework, i.e. it "overlooks" everything and researchers can propose any research project they like. What really bugs their lordships is that the UKRI hasn't focused obsessively on specific games and commercial practices which supposedly have specific risks attached to them.
 

Gambling With Lives wrote a similar letter and I daresay several other people did too. This is the "swarm effect". If they repeat something often enough, they think it will become an established fact.
 
The response of the UKRI was to change its webpage again by adding a whole load of provisos and caveats. Below the passages I quoted at the top of this post, it has now added the following (emphasis mine) 
 

Partnerships with non-HEI organisations and people across the third sector, community groups, the public sector, and industry are essential and can contribute to diverse, innovative and cutting edge research, particularly in respect of the provision of industry data and commercial insights for the furtherance of research endeavours. By ‘industry’ we mean any enterprise that places goods or services on a market and whose commercial activities constitute more than 20% of its annual operations. This definition applies across all sectors and is not limited to organisations within the gambling industry. However, we absolutely recognise the sensitivities in respect of partnerships or collaboration with businesses, the gambling industry or otherwise.

That is why we are clear that any engagement with industry partners, especially those from the gambling sector, must be demonstrably independent, evidence-based, research-led, and aligned with the programme’s public interest objectives to further understanding of gambling and gambling-related harm.

Further, all proposals will be subject to robust scrutiny through our peer review and governance processes, with particular attention paid to the independence and integrity of the research, the source and independence of the findings, and the potential for real-world impact in understanding gambling behaviour and reducing gambling harms.

UKRI wishes to clarify that, as well as not being permitted to host awards, under the Research Programme on Gambling UKRI does not permit funding to be provided to Gambling Commission licence holders who are subject to the levy. We have also placed restrictions on co-funding from such organisations. Furthermore, UKRI would not expect individual researchers to concurrently hold funding from licence holders subject to the levy while receiving funding from the Research Programme on Gambling.

UKRI does not permit engagement with industries whose core business can be associated with harm to public health or societal wellbeing, in line with our ethical standards and harms-based exclusion principles.

Exceptions may be made for time-limited, purpose-specific interactions deemed essential to achieving legitimate and high-quality research objectives (for example, access to proprietary datasets or materials), provided that:

  • there is no direct funding or co-authorship from the excluded entity
  • the interaction is subject to robust ethical review and declared transparently
  • appropriate safeguards are in place to prevent undue influence, reputational risk, or conflicts of interest
  • the public benefit of the research demonstrably outweighs the risks of engagement
... Partnerships can take different forms including project partners or collaborating organisations. You must demonstrate how the partnerships within your consortium are equitable, have contributed to the development of your application including its conceptualisation, are not compromised by non-compliance with our conflict of interest policy, and will help the centre achieve its aims.

 
It's difficult to know how this will work in practice. On the face of it, it is incoherent. On the one hand, the UKRI is encouraging researchers to form partnerships with the gambling industry and it still says that whoever runs the Gambling Harms Research Coordination Centre should "ensure that the Centre includes representation from industry." On the other hand, it says that it "does not permit engagement with industries whose core business can be associated with harm to public health or societal wellbeing". But harm to public health and societal wellbeing is exactly what "public health" academics think the gambling industry is all about and since the UKRI is giving grants for people to study gambling "harm", it would seem that the UKRI thinks the same. 
 
The whole webpage is now a bit of a muddle, but since the UKRI keeps changing it every time they get an indignant letter from a wowser, that is hardly surprising.

 



Saturday, 18 October 2025

Good COP 11

The WHO's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control Conference of the Parties (FCTC COP) will be held in Geneva next month. The media will be banned as usual so I'll be there for the Good COP conference down the road to offer a more enlightened view along with a stellar line up of experts. You can attend or watch online. Details here.



Friday, 17 October 2025

Banning cigarette filters?

Some further thoughts on this at my Substack.
 

Smokers would have to greatly overestimate the benefits of filters for a ban to provide a net benefit in public health terms, and I doubt they do. I expect most of them think they provide no protection at all. Most smokers have only ever known filtered cigarettes and they know that they are highly dangerous. In any case, making a product more dangerous in order to scare people off using it has got to be ethically questionable.

The anti-smoking lobby’s approach to this issue is all over the place. They were all in favour of the development of low tar cigarettes in the 1970s. They now say that was a mistake. Fair enough, but if it was a mistake why did they lobby for the EU to set limits on tar yields in the 1990s and then fight to lower those limits in the 2000s? They then successfully lobbied the EU to ban tobacco companies from putting the tar and nicotine content on packs because this information was (supposedly) misleading. Which is it? Either all cigarettes are as bad as each other, in which case get rid of the limits on tar and nicotine, or low tar cigarettes are safer than high tar cigarettes, in which case consumers should be informed.

Their current position seems to be that all cigarettes are as bad as each other and that filters should be banned because they give the opposite impression. If so, the EU’s limits on tar and nicotine serve no purpose and should be abolished. Indeed, they will have to be abolished if filters are banned because there is no such thing as a low-tar unfiltered cigarette. This is an issue that the authors of the Addiction article, who include ASH’s Hazel Cheeseman, never address. They can’t be dumb enough to think that the EU will accidentally ban cigarettes by banning filters and leaving the tar limits in place so they must think - if they have thought about it at all - that the EU will allow high tar cigarettes to be sold again. That would be fine with me. It’s just be a bit surprising that it’s also fine with an anti-smoking group.

 



Tuesday, 14 October 2025

Prohibitionists for human rights!

Not a spoof

 
Tobacco Control has published an hilarious article by a lawyer from ASH (USA) and a social scientist from Mike Bloomberg's Tobacco Control Research Group (Bath University). It is titled Tobacco control advocates as human rights defenders: a call for recognition. and is every bit as ridiculous as it sounds. 
  

Tobacco control advocacy is not without risks. Increasingly, advocates have spoken out about the threats, harassment and attacks they face when confronting powerful corporate interests.

 
This "harassment" mostly consists being called things like 'nicotine Nazis', 'health fascists' and 'killjoys'. It turns out that if you stigmatise people, extort money from them through sin taxes and ruin their social lives, they will dislike you. Who knew? And yet, despite working tirelessly to make the lives of nicotine users miserable, I have never heard of any anti-smoking campaigner in the modern era being physically attacked by a smoker. When you think about it, that is quite remarkable. 
 

This commentary argues that tobacco control advocates should be recognised as human rights defenders (HRDs) under international frameworks.  

 
Hahaha! 
 

The Office of the High Commissioner on Human Rights (OHCHR) defines HRDs as individuals who, individually or with others, act to promote or protect human rights in a peaceful manner.

 
You know who isn't defined as a human rights defender? Ambulance-chasing lawyers and pointless academics who sit around on fat salaries thinking up ways to take away people's right to enjoy themselves. There are lots of names for people like that but 'human rights defender' is definitely not one of them.
 

This definition is based on actions, not positions or titles. By this standard, tobacco control advocates—who work to protect and advance the right to health (and other rights) and challenge harmful corporate practices—clearly fall within the scope of HRDs.

 
Anti-smoking lobbyists do not advance the right to health. Insofar as not smoking is synonymous with health, people can choose to do it or choose not to do it. Having the right to something does not mean that a person should be compelled by others to maximise it at the expense of everything else they hold dear. People have the right to a family life but that doesn't mean they should be forced to have children. 
 
What difference would it make if we go along with this gaslighting and pretend that prohibitionists are champions of human rights?
 

... much of the practical, frontline support for HRDs comes from civil society. For example, a civil society-led initiative based in Europe offers a variety of support mechanisms, including a hotline for urgent protection and visits in detention. 

 
The initiative they are referring to has been supporting women living in Afghanistan under the Taliban and libertarians fighting political oppression in Georgia. Surely even the most deluded 'tobacco control' nutter can see that the plight of these people has nothing in common with single-issue campaigners being called nanny statists on Facebook? 
 

Tobacco control has always been about defending the right to health, life, and dignity. 

 
No, it has always been a prohibitionist crusade run by neurotics, bigots and grifters. As the campaign against e-cigarettes and nicotine pouches shows, it was never really about health and it certainly isn't about dignity.  
 

 A moral crusade explicitly grounded in 'denormalisation' was never going to advance human dignity.
 

Yet the advocates who lead this work often face threats without the recognition or protection afforded to other defenders of human rights. 

 
The authors helpfully link to a website that might otherwise have escaped me. Paid for by two of Bloomberg's front groups, Courage Against Tobacco tells the heart-rending stories of brave of anti-smoking careerists who have suffered at the hands of the tobacco industry. The 'tobacco industry' is very broadly defined, including not just companies who make and sell tobacco products but also "all related corporate entities connected to tobacco manufacturing companies", "research institutions accepting tobacco funding", "third-party allies" and "lobbyists advancing industry positions". And, as if that were not enough, it also includes: 
 
  • Organizations promoting "reduced-harm" products while opposing evidence-based measures aligned with the WHO FCTC
  • Entities that consistently advance tobacco industry policy positions 
 
In other words, it includes literally everybody who disagrees with them. 

The website tells the story of a French anti-smoking campaigner who was "allegedly insulted online" by somebody from an organisation called 'Angry Tobacconists'. It tells the tale of ASH Scotland's Sheila Duffy being called a "health Nazi" by FOREST and of a former Detective Chief Inspector threatening to take her to court over something (the details are not clear). And we hear about some anti-smoking activist in southeast Asia who received a 36 page letter of complaint from somebody who is apparently vaguely connected to the tobacco industry.

It certainly puts the situation in Gaza and Ukraine into perspective, doesn't it? Nobody has ever suffered like a professional tobacco control lobbyist has suffered - and all to protect human rights! (i.e. their right to tell other people how to live their lives.)
 

Recognising tobacco control advocates as HRDs is not symbolic—it is a necessary step to close a serious protection gap. It would align the field more explicitly with global justice efforts, unlock underused legal and institutional resources...

 
And there we have it. Is that the sound of a cash register I can hear? 
 

... and send a clear message that defending health is defending human rights. As pressure from commercial actors intensifies, the global tobacco control community must act—not only to advance policy, but to safeguard those advancing it.

 
These people are deluded beyond belief. Clive Bates puts it well in a rapid response...
 

Tobacco control advocates are not defending human rights, but rather promoting controls and limitations on the rights of others. The threats to the safety of tobacco control activists are minimal in practice, but the threats to millions of others from adopting a prohibitionist, war-on-drugs posture towards safer forms of nicotine are significant.

 

 


Monday, 13 October 2025

Towards prohibition

I was spoke to Brent Stafford at Regulator Watch when I was at the Global Nicotine Forum in June. We discussed vaping, prohibition and why things will get worse before they get better. Here's the video.