Wednesday, 4 December 2013

Tom Watson on fixed odds betting terminals

Tom Watson's Guardian article about fixed odds betting terminals (FOBTs) is largely free of the numerous outright lies that I discussed in my IEA paper on the subject. That's more than can be said of the Daily Mail's report, but Watson's analysis still contains plenty of misleading material.

David Cameron must stand by his pledge to me at prime minister's question time that the government will take a "proper look" at FOBTs.

By "taking a proper look", he means doing what Watson wants—reducing the stakes by 98% from £100 to £2. He does not contemplate the possibility that the government has already taken a look and found little more than a modern day moral panic.

The government is making a huge mistake in maintaining the status quo. There are several reasons why it reached the wrong decision. Powerful lobbying by the gambling industry has ensured that this Whitehall review of FOBTs was watered down. The key issues weren't explored adequately because FOBTs were considered alongside other gaming machines that are already capped at £2 or lower per spin.


On the contrary, DCMS looked at the "key issues" and concluded - rightly, IMO - that “there is no clear evidence to indicate whether B2 gaming machines have had any significant effect on the level of problem gambling in Britain” and that “without such evidence there is a risk of introducing disproportionate and untargeted regulation that could cost jobs.”

Another influential body, the Responsible Gambling Trust, is expected to publish data this month into gaming machines. Its much-delayed report isn't expected until September 2014. 

It's not "much-delayed". It was understood from the outset that it would take 18 months.

But this organisation is funded by the gambling industry and can't be relied upon for unbiased research. 

Get your shot in early, eh Tom? There's nothing like poisoning the well before the research has even been published.

Besides, the trust's work does not touch upon the addictive nature of FOBTs.

My understanding is that it will.

The industry has also fought a furious lobbying campaign, which has involved attempts to silence anyone who criticises FOBTs.

That's news to me and Watson cites no evidence for it. As for "furious lobbying", the anti-FOBT campaign is being run by a multi-millionaire casino entrepreneur via Prime Table Games (trading as the Campaign for Fairer Gambling). They have spent a huge amount of money on the campaign, they had a heavy presence at all the party conferences and they even sponsored the Lib Dems' party conference. This is my pass for that event...



By a remarkable coincidence, it was at this very Lib Dem conference that delegates voted to take action against the FOBTs, hence today's parliamentary debate.

Now, maybe Prime Table Games are acting out of the purest of motives. Maybe it's not just a grudge match between Derek "rather than sue I backed a campaign to make my point" Webb and the bookies. But it seems to me that MPs like Tom Watson are being played like a cheap fiddle.

When those with power and influence go into overdrive then I know from experience this is usually a good indication that MPs are on to something.

Any business would defend itself against when Big Government lays into them. What an extraordinary admission from Waston—that he knows when he is "on to something" when he threatens legitimate businesses, puts jobs at risk and attacks popular leisure activities.

Just consider the millions bookmakers have to lose from any reforms.

Is it now official Labour party policy to make laws which make businesses less profitable?

For a start, just consider the evidence on the addictive nature of FOBTs. Findings from the 2007 British gambling prevalence survey revealed that these machines, which have transformed bookies into high-street casinos, have a stronger association with problem gambling than any other activity.

I will admit that I can't remember what the 2007 British Gambling Prevalence Survey said (although I find it hard to believe that the serious academics who write these reports would make such a bold claim), but I am familiar with the most recent (2010) British Gambling Prevalence Survey. The 2010 survey found that 13.3 per cent of regular FOBT players were problem gamblers. This is higher than the rate found amongst the general population, of course, but it is lower than the rate found amongst those who gamble on dog races (19.2 per cent), non-sports events (13.8 per cent), casino games (13.9 per cent), online slot machines (17 per cent), spread betting (10.7 per cent) or who play poker in a pub or club (20.3 per cent).

So why did the Gambling Commission, which was set up to regulate gambling in Britain, fail to include this evidence in its advice to ministers?

Because it's obsolete, if it exists at all?

All the government had to do was read the testimonials from problem gamblers to realise the harm FOBTs are doing to communities.

Ah, anecdotal evidence! The cornerstone of the anti-FOBT campaign. You can, of course, find examples of hard luck stories from problem gamblers who play every sort of game. It is the nature of the problem gambler to have problems from gambling, whether in a casino, on the race-track, or on the internet.

One reformed gambler, James Petherick, has even set up his own petition through avaaz.org to reduce the maximum stakes on FOBTs.

309 people have signed it at the time of writing. Hardly a mass movement. Over 20,000 have signed the Save Our E-cigs petition on the same site. Which one are you concentrating on this week, Tom?

Many players are drawn in by the promise of huge cash wins. But the odds are heavily in favour of the bookies and if you play them long enough you are guaranteed to lose.

Well spotted, Tom. How unlike every single form of gambling ever invented. It's almost as if—what's the expression?—the house always wins. Well spotted indeed.


UPDATE

Guido has noticed a touch of hypocrisy about Watson's anti-FOBT position...

Worth noting that Watson’s name is on last year’s Culture, Media and Sport select committee report on gambling, which drew some very different conclusions. Indeed, the committee Watson sat on recommended that the rules regulating FOBTs be relaxed:

“We therefore recommend that local authorities be given the power to allow betting shops to have more than the current limit of four B2 [FOBT] machines per premises”


Not like Watson to waste an opportunity for select committee grandstanding…



Saturday, 30 November 2013

Crampton on the slippery slope

A nice explanation from Eric Crampton on the slippery slope...

Slippery slopes are only a logical fallacy if you don't have a plausible mechanism by which the move to A makes B more likely, and how that then in turn makes C more likely. If you have a mechanism, and if you have repeated real world observations consistent with the theory, it's not a fallacy. It should be the new null unless there's some better theory explaining the data.

He goes on to consider why A so often does lead to B. Indeed, it often leads to Z.

A few plausible mechanisms by which restrictions on one product beget restrictions on another:

  • Public health campaigners move on to the next target down the line as grant funding on past targets dries up.
  • Marginal cost of extending a control mechanism to a new domain is lower than establishing it in the first place so it is likely that when it starts, it will extend.
  • Where the public would oppose the full suite of controls if offered at one go, they're less likely to oppose many small steps leading to the same goal. So if you want to ban tobacco and it is 1978 you only ask for voluntary non-smoking sections as a sensible moderate position. Then mandatory ones. Then smokefree restaurants and public buildings. Then smokefree anywhere a kid might be. Then Smokefree NZ by 2025. Anti alcohol campaigners have already started talking about a .03 BAC limit.

I don't think it is nuts to believe that public health campaigners want far more control over our consumption decisions than they're letting on. It's consistent with the evidence of incremental ratcheted increases in control over each product, and extensions of controls from one product to another.

I would add that B is also the logical extension of A. For example, putting graphic warnings on alcohol because it can cause cancer is a natural progression from putting graphic warnings on tobacco because it can cause cancer. The two policies are perfectly logically consistent. Indeed, it is illogical to do one and not the other. When campaigners talk about taking "the next logical step", they are right. And yet when liberals take this logic a step or two further, they are accused of making fallacious slippery slope arguments.

Do read the rest of Eric's post, which includes a number of recent examples.

Friday, 29 November 2013

Polemic on the politics of people pushing pointless plain packs

I've written a few words for Conservative Home about plain packs.

One consequence of the “something must be done” attitude towards smoking in government is that nearly everything has been done. The quixotic policy of plain packaging is at the bottom of a well-scraped barrel. When Action on Smoking and Health surveyed the public in 2008, plain packaging was the least popular of the dozen anti-smoking policies they suggested, with less than half of those questioned in support. It has risen to the top of the list largely as a result of an exceptionally nanny statist Australian government showing campaigners that it was politically feasible. If it feels as if the issue has been around forever it is because the campaigners have spent so much (taxpayers’) money on the crusade that they will not let it go.

Do go read the rest.



Thursday, 28 November 2013

Well, that was quick

No time to lose for the nanny state...



Those of you who read my little book about plain packaging will not be surprised by this. From page 32...

This ‘slippery-slope’ took hold in Australia before the ink was dry on the plain packaging bill, as Australian Senator Cory Bernadi recalls: “[O]n the very first day [after the plain packaging legislation was passed] they moved onto drinking. People who were advocating plain packaging were saying “We should have this for alcohol. We should have it in fast food”. Where does it end? The nanny state will never end because there is always another cause to advocate for.”


Plain packs back on the cards?

Having arranged to do a 7 am interview with LBC about the latest phase of the medical establishment's vendetta against those who choose to smoke, I ended up doing about 15 interviews, including Five Live, Sky News and Channel 5 News. When I returned home, I found out that it was open season on smokers...



Naturally, the BBC is creaming itself about this, putting it front and centre on its news webpage, but I wonder if all is at it seems. As happened in March, when the Guardian egged its own face with the claim that plain packaging was imminent, this is an unsubstantiated story from an unnamed source. Could it be the rogue Department of Health playing silly buggers again, trying to put the government on the spot?

I was tickled by this part of the Telegraph's report...

It is likely to see cigarettes in plain packaging appearing on shelves before the election in 2015 after another report into the impact of the measures in Australia is completed in Spring and is expected to back the case for plain packaging.

It's difficult to see how any fair-minded person could expect the next report to back anything of the sort when you consider that in the four months since the government said it would wait and see what happened with plain packs in Australia, the sum total of the evidence has been a study which found there are more counterfeit cigarettes than in Australia than ever before, a study that found no decline in the Australian smoking rate, and a survey that found that some Australian smokers had thought about quitting but hadn't actually done so. But then, that is how government reports work—conclusion first, evidence later.

Whatever the truth is in this story, it shows the tremendous power of the Department of Health and its taxpayer-funded lobby groups. If it's true, they have the power to get the Prime Minister to perform a U-turn. If it's false, they have the power to get the entire British media to play their game based on a lie. Either way, it's time a strong minister got in there and tamed this marauding beast.



UPDATE

Minister for 'public health' Jane Ellison has made a statement:

The Parliamentary Under Secretary of State, Department of Health (Jane Ellison):

I am today announcing that we have asked Sir Cyril Chantler to carry out an independent review of the public health evidence on standardised packaging of tobacco products.

Tobacco use is a significant public health challenge. Our evidence-based tobacco control strategies play an essential part in delivering the Government’s continued commitment to reduce the number of people in this country who are dying prematurely.

It is important to explore avenues that have the potential to contribute to this longstanding aim. In July we said that we would keep the policy of standardised packaging under review as we examine the emerging evidence. As part of this ongoing work we have therefore commissioned a review with the following terms of reference:

1. To give advice to the Secretary of State for Health, taking into account existing and any fresh evidence, as to whether or not the introduction of standardised packaging is likely to have an effect on public health (and what any effect might be), in particular in relation to the health of children. It will be a matter for the Chair to determine how he undertakes this review and he is free to draw evidence from whatever source he considers necessary and appropriate.

2. The review will report by March 2014.

3. It will be an Independent Review, with advice to the Secretary of State contained in a report. An independent secretariat will be appointed by the Chair, who will set out the method of how he will conduct the review in more detail in due course. The secretariat will be wholly accountable to the Chair, and it will be for the Chair to guide and task them in their work as he sees fit.

We intend to reach a decision on standardised tobacco packaging once Sir Cyril has made his report. The Government will introduce standardised tobacco packaging if, following the review and consideration of the wider issues raised by this policy, we are satisfied that there are sufficient grounds to proceed, including public health benefit.

The Government also intends to take advantage of the opportunity offered by the Children and Families Bill, which is currently being considered in the House of Lords, to table a Government amendment to take enabling powers now which would allow regulations to be made to introduce standardised tobacco packaging later, if it is decided to proceed with this policy.


Cyril Chandler is a medic and therefore almost certain to toe the health lobby's line on this.

How much more time and money will be spent pushing this ridiculous policy? The political class are mesmerised by trivia.



Wednesday, 27 November 2013

No fall in smoking since plain packaging

Tucked away at the bottom of this Daily Mail article (which is mainly about some pointless CRUK research into e-cigs) is this little nugget of information:

The report comes as a separate study from London Economics found no change in the prevalence of cigarette smoking in Australia since the introduction of plain packaging in December 2012.

Dr Gavan Conlon, lead researcher and London Economics partner, said: 'Over the timeframe of the analysis, the data does not demonstrate that there has been a change in smoking prevalence following the introduction of plain packaging despite an increase in the noticeability of the new health warnings.'

Is it cynical to suggest that this would be front page news if there had been a drop in the smoking rate? The study, which was commissioned by PMI, is here and it does indeed show no decline in smoking prevalence. The sample size of around 5,000 people means that smoking prevalence cannot be confidently estimated to the nearest decimal point (although this is always the case with prevalence surveys), but the smoking rate was essentially 20 per cent throughout the period. The mid-point estimates for daily smoking were 20.4 per cent before the introduction of plain packaging, 19.5 per cent three months later and 20.0 per cent eight months later. As the authors note, "from a statistical perspective, none of these changes were different from zero". Weekly smoking rates were 2.1, 2.0 and 2.1 per cent respectively.

In line with a previous study, the authors find that people noticed the warnings more once plain packaging came in. This happens every time the government changes the warnings on cigarettes, but it never seems to lead to more people quitting. So far, the only evidence the neo-prohibitionists have come up with to show that plain packaging 'works' is a telephone survey which found that smokers noticed the warnings more. Some of these smokers reported thinking about giving up, but they didn't. When I wrote about this survey, I suggested there were three things the UK government would want to see before they were sold on plain packs...

  
(1) a sharp decline in smoking prevalence, particularly underage smoking prevalence;

(2) no increase in illicit cigarette sale and production;

(3) a successful and inexpensive settlement of the various intellectual property disputes/lawsuits.

The legal issues remain unresolved, but there is certainly evidence that the illicit trade has been given a boost by plain packaging, and the London Economics report strongly suggests that there has been no sharp decline in smoking prevalence. Indeed, it suggests—albeit tentatively due to the sample size—that there has been no decline at all (even though we would expect some downward movement based on the long-term trend). As Angela Harbutt says...

In combination, the KPMG LLP and London Economics reports highlight the real facts about the Australian ‘plain’ packs experiment. Smoking rates have not fallen but the trade in the black market (especially fakes) has risen astronomically – damaging legitimate business, reducing government revenues and ultimately contributing to more public health harm. Exactly as predicted.

Meanwhile, on a somewhat related note, a study published this week found that the Scottish brainwave of banning multi-packs of alcohol didn't reduce alcohol consumption. As I've said many times before, if 'public health' was a results-driven business, they'd all be on the dole.




Tuesday, 26 November 2013

Shut 'em down

The Alcohol and Other Drugs Council of Australia has had its funding cut off by the Abbott government, effective immediately. This has naturally led to gnashing of teeth from the public health lobby and Labour politicians.

Opposition health spokeswoman Catherine King said the decision to abolish the body beggars belief.

"It has decades of policy and advocacy experience in this sector," Ms King said in a statement.

What kind of "policy and advocacy" did this state-funded organisation do, exactly?

A flick through their press releases find them accusing John Farrell, a politician, of being "beholden to booze barons" because he failed to ban discounted alcohol. "Mr O’Farrell and his henchmen are not fit to govern," they claim.

We find them writing a letter to the Prime Minister, calling for "a complete ban on alcohol advertising and sponsorship, a minimum price per alcohol unit, the requirement for one-third of alcohol labels to be reserved for health warnings, and increased alcohol taxes."

We find them cheering on the previous government's move to introduce plain packaging, saying that "no debate is needed about this legislation."

We find them saying that it is "incomprehensible" and "beyond belief" that Aldi supermarkets are allowed to sell alcohol.


Was all this political activism being carried out on the taxpayers' dollar? Absolutely. The organisation has immediately gone into administration now that the state has withdrawn its funding.

The Australian public should never have been forced to subsidise "policy and advocacy" in the first place. Abbott is quite right to shut it down.

Note how easy it is to get rid of these parasitic groups. All it takes is to stop writing the cheques. There's a bit of squealing for a few days and then they're gone. I hope politicians in the UK and paying attention.