Wednesday, 29 June 2011

Obesity rate is twice as high amongst nonsmokers

A study published in this week's British Medical Journal shows that nonsmokers are twice as likely to be obese—and three times as likely to be severely obese—than smokers. This is very interesting stuff, because it is is often said that smokers put on weight when they quit cigarettes. It's also said, albeit much less often, that there is some correlation between the decline in smoking and the rise in obesity. This study offers empirical evidence for both.

The connection between smoking and low weight is not much commented on, presumably because anti-smoking campaigners don't want people who are worried about their weight to 'reach for a Lucky instead of a sweet', as the old advertising campaign went. And yes, I've reproduced that advert here to annoy them.

Why, then, would any public health researcher jeopardise their future funding by highlighting this fact? The answer is that they didn't set out to. The study in question looks at obesity's role in creating health inequalities (a cast-iron guarantee for funding). Social class is closely related to mortality and life expectancy is lowest amongst the lowest social classes. Smoking is one reason for that, obesity is another. Between them, as this study shows, these two risk factors account for more than half the difference in life expectancy between the top and bottom rungs of society.

That, in itself, is useful and important information, but in the process of comparing smoking and nonsmoking women (and it was only women in this study), they also show that the difference in obesity rates between smokers and nonsmokers is, frankly, massive.



The graph above (click to enlarge) shows the percentage of women who are overweight and obese according to smoking status and occupational class. As expected, the highest occupational classes (I and II) have a lower rate of obesity than the lowest.

Also as expected, the smokers weigh less than the nonsmokers. What is surprising is the size of the difference. In most cases, rates of obesity are around twice as high for nonsmokers and, across all groups, rates of severe obesity are three times as high.

As the study says:

Severe obesity was more than twice as prevalent among women who had never smoked in the lower occupational classes than in women who had never smoked in the higher occupational classes and about seven times more prevalent than among current smokers in the higher occupational classes.

Another way to look at it is that nonsmokers in the highest social class have a higher rate of obesity (13.3%) than smokers in the lowest social class (13.1%). Rates of severe obesity—which is a condition popularly associated with the underclass—is actually more common amongst the highest class of nonsmoker than the lowest class of smoker. No matter which class you look at, obesity rates are always higher amongst nonsmokers.

To use the standard language of public health, it is true to say that not smoking is a major risk factor for obesity. This, of course, should not be taken as a green light to take up smoking. As the researchers point out, the health risks of smoking are greater than the health risks of obesity. The study shows that the mortality rate rises by around a third for moderately obese people and doubles for severely obese people. By comparison—as the same authors showed in an earlier paper—smoking increases the mortality rate by at least 75%.

I discussed the reasons why smokers tend to be less fat in Chapter 3 of Velvet Glove, Iron Fist. Partly, it is the result of nicotine suppressing appetite and partly it is the act of smoking which takes the mind off food, but mainly it is the physiological effect of nicotine that increases the metabolic rate, particularly during exercise. In his excellent, but sadly out-of-print, book Smoking: The Artificial Passion, David Krogh says that smokers, on average, weight seven pounds less than nonsmokers. Judging by this new study in the BMJ, that is probably an underestimate.

As I see it, there are two useful messages to take home from this study. The first is brought out in the study itself:

[The results] suggest the decline in smoking rates in recent decades may have contributed to the increase in overweight and obesity.

This is worth bearing in mind when you hear anti-smoking-turned-anti-obesity windbags like John Banzhaf rattling on. People like him have, in a real sense, created the problem he professes to be so concerned about. You can, of course, make a rational case for saying that obesity is less of a health problem than smoking, but you won't hear it from him. (One might even frivolously consider that since Big John's so keen to bring in a 'fat tax', there is an easy way to do it—tax nonsmokers. Sure, not all nonsmokers develop obesity-related diseases but then not all smokers get smoking-related diseases. Not all people who drink soda or eat burgers get fat either, but then taxing people on the basis of risk factors to aggregate populations is perfectly acceptable, isn't it John?)

If the suppression of smoking has indeed led to a rise in over-eating, it just goes to prove the golden rule of prohibition: people will always find some unhealthy pleasure to indulge in when other avenues are closed off. If, by some miracle, the war on obesity is won, it will only lead to excessive use of something else. The whole prohibitionist exercise is futile because the desire for pleasure is a zero sum game.

The second point to consider is that since nicotine is an aid to maintaining a healthy weight, why are alleged health campaigners banning products like snus and e-cigarettes which not only get people off cigarettes but could control their weight as well? If smoking and obesity really are the two greatest public health threats of our time, doesn't that make ultra-low risk nicotine products the penicillin of the age?

Monday, 27 June 2011

John Banzhaf: Ronald McDonald is just like Joe Camel

This is another one to be filed under "next logical step". In the video below, John Banzhaf, founder of ASH and now a prominent anti-obesity crusader, calls for McDonald's to drop their (admittedly creepy) mascot Ronald McDonald. Why? Because we have to think of the children, of course. According to Banzhaf, McDonald's sells "dangerous products" and the clown should go the same way as Joe Camel.

As the interviewer points out, McDonald's has bent over backwards to accommodate the food faddists in recent years, but, for people like Banzhaf nothing is ever enough. The interview soon turns into a slanging match (it's from Fox News), and neither side makes a very good case. In the end, Banzhaf resorts to gloating about how that he's "winning" (although all the lawsuits he has filed against McDonald's have failed).

Don't expect a reasoned debate, but scholars of the slippery slope will enjoy counting how many times the tubby legal vulture equates McDonald's with the tobacco industry.





On a similar note, I can't recommend this article by Trevor Butterworth strongly enough. ABC News recently attacked a biostatistician for casting doubt on the idea that soda is a major contributor to obesity. Unable to find fault with his research, obesity crusaders have made the usual lazy ad hominems against him for being funded by the food industry.

“But even though study after study have [sic] shown soda to be a significant contributor to America’s staggering obesity crisis, he says there is too little ‘solid evidence’… Allison has said such studies haven’t been rigorous enough to prove soda contributes to obesity, but critics say his skepticism stems from his financial ties to entities such as Coca-Cola, Pepsi and the American Beverage Association, who, critics say, have paid Allison to poke holes in the scientific consensus.”

The problem, as Butterworth points out, is that "study after study" has shown nothing of the sort. Soda is no more fattening that fruit juice and the epidemiological evidence linking it to obesity is weak. If that weren't enough, it turns out that studies funded by the food industry are less biased than those funded by the state. This is an example of “white hat bias”, ie. distorting information to advance fashionable causes. It is perhaps the main source of bias in epidemiology today; certainly it is the most under-reported. We come across a lot of it on this blog.

When you piece all these elements together, the ABC news piece increasingly looks like journalists taking on the role of hitmen in an academic vendetta, one in which they are clueless about the underlying data but absolutely certain that the conventional wisdom is right.

And so, the result is that thanks to ABC’s totally misleading account of the evidence on sugared drinks and weight gain, Allison will almost certainly be removed from legitimate debate, tarred forever with the insinuation that he is merely a shill for industry.

The whole story of how this man has been vilified is fascinating and important. Please go read.

Thursday, 23 June 2011

Smoking in cars - a junk science retrospective

It seems that no matter which party is in power, the gradual prohibition of smoking moves on regardless. The latest development has been a private member's bill put forward by Labour MP Alex Cunningham to ban smoking in cars which have children in them. The BBC has reported it here and has helpfully given a campaigner a whole article to make the case for the ban without rebuttal here.

Since the ban seems rather limited—it targets a minority of a minority of the population—it's a shrewd way of moving smoking bans into private property and, if passed, you can guarantee that the 'next logical step' will be to ban smoking in the home. This would indeed be logical, since both cars and homes belong to the individual, and children spend far more time in the home than in the car.

The one aspect of smoking in cars that defies the prohibitionists is the fact in a moving vehicle with the window open, smoke is dragged out of the vehicle in a split second. There have been a small number of studies measuring smoke in vehicles and they have only ever found significant levels of secondhand smoke when all the windows are wound up. This is hardly surprising. Nor is it surprising that anti-smoking campaigners only refer to the window-wound-up scenario when pushing for bans.

Consequently, you may hear various claims about levels of smoke in cars being 23 times greater than in a bar, or such like. You may even hear the absurd claim that one cigarette smoked in a car produces the same amount of secondhand smoke as a whole evening in a smoky bar. These myths have all been debunked before, including—in one instance—by the Canadian Association Medical Journal. I didn't realise how much I'd written about this myself until I looked in the archive. Here are the main posts...

On the claim that smoke in a car reaches 23 times the level found in a smoky bar


The effect of opening a window even by 3 inches

ASH's wacky claim that opening the window means that smoke comes back in

Wednesday, 22 June 2011

Won't somebody please think of the old people?

I want to join the Pub Curmudgeon and Longrider in offering my scorn to the Royal College of Physicians Psychiatrists for this...

People over 65 should drink less, a report says

Recommended safe limits for drinking alcohol by older people should be drastically cut, according to a report.

The Royal College of Psychiatrists says people over 65 should drink a maximum of only 1.5 units of alcohol a day.

That is the equivalent of just over about half a pint of beer or a small glass of wine.

How softly we creep towards zero. It won't be long before there is 'no safe level' for anyone and the temperance lobby can really get to work.

It warns current advice - 14 units of alcohol for women and 21 for men each week - is based on work with young adults.

I believe this to be a lie. According to one who was there, the guidelines—now rebranded 'safe limits'—were "not based on any firm evidence at all. It was a sort of intelligent guess by a committee." If any evidence has appeared in the years since to make the guidelines anything other than an "intelligent guess", the RCP has not publicised it. I have never heard the claim that the limits were devised only with young adults in mind, and it's not as if they haven't had enough media coverage over the years to mention this little fact.

But even if you accept that the guidelines are not pure fantasy—in which case you may be drunk yourself—they were weekly guidelines, not daily 'safe limits'. A weekly guideline cannot be cut up into seven chunks and still carry the same risk. If you do that, you'll end up making preposterous statements like "drinking more than half a pint of a beer in a day puts old people's lives at risk." That is so plainly untrue that no old person is going to take the Royal of College of Physicians seriously. Welcome aboard, oldies.

The report says a third those who experience problems with alcohol abuse do so later on in life, often as a result of big changes like retirement, bereavement or feelings of boredom, loneliness and depression.

Well, you know what? If that's their situation, let them have a bloody drink, you miserable temperance swine. There is no public interest being served by having elderly people face loneliness and depression in a state of total sobriety. It really is—and I can't say this often enough—none of your business.

The editor of Saga magazine, Emma Soames, described the recommendations as "unbelievable".

"I think people will be infuriated by this. It's described as a public health problem, it's actually a private health matter."

Abso-fricking-lutely. It takes a descendent of Winston Churchill to tell it like it is. 'Public health' is a grossly misused term that is almost exclusively applied to private health. The infectious diseases have all but disappeared in Britain. Water and air is clean. Food is safe and labelled. At a time when we need a public health movement the least, the largest and much well-funded public health movement in history emerges.

There are, let's face it, only two things that are likely to cause poor health: bad luck and bad habits. You can't do anything about the first and the second is entirely a matter for the individual. Those who interfere in private behaviour do not deserve to be described as part of a public health movement. Call them anything you like—busybodies, wowsers, puritans, zealots, neo-prohibitionists—but don't go along with the charade that the private is public.

Tuesday, 21 June 2011

The cost of the war on drugs

Via United Liberty, a short video about the War on Drugs.





Let's try liberty for a change shall we?

And on a much lighter note, this parody of Adam Curtis documentaries is hilarious. I'm a big fan of Curtis although I will admit his latest doc was a little less (even less?) coherent than his previous work. I'd embed it but for some reason the makers have prevented embedding and closed off the comments. Some people at the New Statesman were taking it all a bit too seriously.

Friday, 17 June 2011

Another pathetic heart miracle study: Kanawha County

As featured on a few crappy local news outlets in America, the latest attempt to show that smoking bans reduce heart attacks is up to the usual standard. You can read it here but the picture below tells the story.



The graph shows hospital admissions for acute coronary syndrome in Kanawha County, West Virginia. It's pretty unexciting, I think you'll agree. As in many parts of the world, including England, heart disease is declining at a steady but constant rate.

Can you guess when the smoking ban started? Well, actually there were two. A full smoking ban, including bars, was enacted in January 2008. That doesn't seem to have had any effect, although it is right at the end of the timeline. Prior to that, there was what the authors of this paper call a 'comprehensive' ban that included restaurants and all public places, but not bars. That started in January 2004.

Can you see how the 2004 ban affected the heart attack rate? That's right. It didn't. And the authors* admit as much...

We did not find additional significant change between, before, and after the removal of smoking areas in restaurants (the key change in the [Clean Indoor Air Regulation] revision that took effect January 1, 2004) after accounting for the sustainable decline of ACS hospitalizations since the 2000 regulation revision.

So how is this evidence of smoking bans reducing hospital admissions for acute coronary syndrome?

To answer that, we need to go all the way back to 1995, when Kanawha County introduced what the authors admit was a 'modest smoking regulation'. Modest indeed, it covered public buildings, but not bars or restaurants, or—I dare say—quite a few other places. Restaurants were, however, obliged to have a designated nonsmoking section of 50% of the floor space.

This is not what anyone today—let alone people in tobacco control—would describe as a smoking ban, but then in 1995, even California didn't have a full smoking ban.

But what—I hear you cry—has the 'modest smoking regulation' of 1995 got to do with the heart attack rate of 2000-08? If you're a true student of voodoo science you'll pay attention, because this is a belter...

In conclusion, our results demonstrate that from 2000 through 2008, the rate of hospital admissions for ACS has consistently declined in Kanawha County in the presence of an existing [Clean Indoor Air Regulation].

Yes, you read that right. Heart attacks declined "in the presence of" a very mild smoking regulation that came into force five years before the timeline of the graph begins. Therefore, post hoc ergo propter hoc, smoking bans reduce heart attacks.

Was the rate rising before 1995? We don't know, because they haven't bothered to get the data. Did the appearance of a real smoking ban lead to an acceleration of the decline? No it didn't. Is it true to say that the heart attack rate declined "in the presence of" absolutely anything that began prior to the year 2000? Yes it is.

This is beyond sad. This 'research' was published by the Centers for Disease Control, America's most prominent public health organisation. Don't they feel just a twinge of shame at being associated with this cow-pat of a study?

Probably not, because, as ever, godawful pseudo-science is fine so long as its for a good cause.


* One of whom is Juhua Luo, a perennial grant recipient from tobacco control who has an uncanny ability to find epidemiological associations where no one else can. In the past she has authored several studies that tried to show a link between snus and pancreatic cancer, as well as a recent attempt to link smoking to breast cancer.


Thanks to Michael McFadden for the tip.

Wednesday, 15 June 2011

The future's orange

Dutch anti-smoking campaigner tries to imagine the world without him


Oh dear, this is terribly unfortunate. From Radio Netherlands...

Health minister scraps anti-smoking lobby subsidy

Meanwhile, the government has decided to cut the 2.7 million euro subsidy to the Dutch anti-smoking lobby Stivoro as of 2013 writes Trouw. In addition, most of the support for anti-smoking campaigns will be scrapped in 2012. Health Minister Edith Schippers thinks the campaigns are not effective and says she is more concerned with the government’s reputation as a nanny state.

However, the International Tobacco Policy Evaluation Project (ITC) believes Stivoro is an essential source of objective information on smoking and tobacco addiction. The ITC is investigating whether the Netherlands is meeting its obligations after the country signed a World Health Organisation convention in 2005, in which countries promised to discourage smoking.

The organisation accuses the minister of being too eager to please the tobacco lobby. The government has declined to raise taxes on cigarettes, reduce the number of sales points or discourage smoking by printing photos of the effects of smoking on cigarette packets. In fact, the first thing this minister did when the current government came into power was to repeal smoking restrictions in small pubs. Rather strange for a health minister, don’t you think?

Not really, no. Smoking bans are not, and never have been a health issue. It's good to see the Dutch reclaiming their traditions of liberalism and tolerance. Well done Dutch Liberals. Shame on you, British Tories and 'Liberals'.

Imagine living in a country where politicians are concerned about getting a reputation for being nannies. Flight from the UK start at £19 plus taxes. While there you might consider travelling over the border to Belgium which has had no government for a year.

A drink, I think. If you see me out tonight, don't come too close because I might accidentally burst your eardrums with my laughter.