Monday, 7 September 2009

The plain packaging ruse

Every day, millions of tiny miracles happen in shops throughout Britain. Customers walk in and ask for products that do not exist and have not existed for years. The shopkeeper hands over these products, the customer hands over their money, and that is that. These non-existent products include such items as Marlboro Lights, Camel Lights and Silk Cut Ultra.

Since 2002, the EU has banned words like 'light' and 'low tar' from appearing on cigarette packs. And yet low tar cigarettes do exist. The shopkeeper knows it. The customer knows it. The side of the pack explicitly shows how much tar and nicotine are contained within. For the sake of propriety, however, we must all pretend that this is not so.

Everyone knows, for example, that Marlboros in a gold pack are really Marlboro Lights, and everyone knows that Marlboro Lights have less tar in them than Marlboro Reds. But this cannot be openly admitted and the BBC goes along with the game:

Marlboro packs with a gold label were rated as having a lower health risk by 53% of adults and easier to quit by 31%, when compared with the Marlboro packs with a red logo.

The BBC are reporting here yet more unpublished 'new research'. This time the research suggests that some customers believe Marlboro Lights 'Marlboro packs with a gold label' are less harmful to health than Marlboros with a higher tar content. Professor David Hammond, from the University of Waterloo, Ontario, says that this is a fallacy:

"The truth is that all cigarettes are equally hazardous, regardless of what colour the pack is or what words appear on it."

Well perhaps. Or perhaps not. The truth is that people have not been smoking ultra-low tar cigarettes for long enough for us to see if there is any reduction in risk. And by the standards of previous decades, all cigarettes currently on sale in the EU are ultra-low tar.

But there is some evidence that lowering tar yields has reduced risk in the past, such as in this study:

The tendency for the risk of lung cancer to increase with increasing tar content was consistent among men and women.

The results provide further support for the hypothesis that the tar content of cigarettes is directly related to lung cancer risk.

And even ASH have not always been fundamentalist in their opposition to lower yields. Here is Karen Williams, ASH's former campaign director, talking in 1995:

"There are no safe tar levels in cigarettes but basically the higher the tar the greater danger to health. It is nicotine which is addictive and the more nicotine there is in a cigarette the greater the chance there is of reinforcing the habit and making it harder to stop."

The EU appears to agree with this. After all, if they believe that all cigarettes are equally harmful, why did they set a maximum tar level of 15mg in 1992? As Man Widdecombe has pointed out:

Hold on a second, didn't the EU regulate the amount of tar and nicotine in cigarettes because of health reasons?

Directive 90/239/EEC established maximum limits for the tar yield of cigarettes marketed in the Member States with effect from 31 December 1992. The carcinogenic nature of tar makes it necessary to reduce further the levels of tar in cigarettes.

If high tar cigarettes are not more hazardous than low tar cigarettes, why would the EU bother to bring in this ban? Why, indeed, would they go on to lower the legal limit to 12mg (in 1998) and then to 10mg (in 2004)? Presumably because 12mg tar is better than 15mg, and 10mg is better still.

So by what magical process does reducing tar yields from 12mg to 10mg reduce risk when, as we are now being told, switching from a 10mg tar cigarette to a 1mg cigarette makes no difference? Either low tar cigarettes are less hazardous (in which case the government should not be pretending otherwise) or all cigarettes are equally harmful (in which case the EU ban is pointless and they should allow high tar cigarettes back on the market).

Like most 'new research' in the field of tobacco, this study has a political objective. In this instance, it is to persuade the government to force the tobacco industry to wrap their cigarettes in plain packaging with no logo, words or colours.

Subtle branding on cigarette packets is misleading smokers into believing some products are less harmful than others, research suggests.

Products branded "smooth", "silver" or "gold" are generally believed to be healthier and easier to give up, a survey of 1,300 people found.

But when shown plain packs the false beliefs disappeared, University of Nottingham researchers discovered.

How this plain packaging ruse will work in practice remains a mystery. The anti-smoking lobby are not calling for all cigarettes to have the same tar and nicotine yields, so 'light' cigarettes will still exist, even if they cannot be called that. And if they exist, they must surely still be identifiable as different products in some way, even if they have to be called something like Marlboro A and Marlboro B. And if they are identifiable, consumers and shopkeepers will still know that Marlboro B are really Marlboro Lights.

Perhaps, in the future, this information will be passed on from father to son and from mother to daughter. Perhaps the very existence of low tar cigarettes will only be confirmed by whispered conversations on street corners. How ever it is passed on, that knowledge will survive. Short of erasing the collective memory of the nation, it is difficult to see how this latest phase in smoking's denormalisation will achieve what it sets out to do.

Sunday, 6 September 2009

Smoking in cars study is misleading


I don't think this will be the last we hear of this...

Secondhand smoke in cars worse than in bars

Jurisdictions around the globe have tried to squash secondhand smoke by banning smoking in public places. But only a few have tried to prevent people from lighting up in their cars -- typically only when children are present.

A new study from Johns Hopkins' school of public health takes on the question car smoking -- just how bad is it?

Pretty bad. The amount of secondhand smoke was significantly higher in cars than in bars and restaurants, the paper found.

This comes from the
Baltimore Sun. The study is unpublished (as is so often the case), but will appear in the October issue of Tobacco Control. That the results are already appearing in the mainstream press is a tribute to the anti-smoking lobby's well-drilled PR machine. Expect to see similar headlines around the world over the next few weeks.

The news angle is evident from the article quoted above - secondhand smoke levels are higher in cars than in bars. The political implications are obvious and the researchers make an open appeal to government in their paper:

These high levels of exposure to SHS [secondhand smoke] support the need for education measures and legislation that regulate smoking in motor vehicles when passengers, especially children, are present.


But the headline is extremely misleading. The study gives an average nicotine level in a car of 9.6µg/m3 (micrograms per cubic metre). There are numerous studies that have measured nicotine levels in bars, so we can see whether the car figure really is 'worse than bars'.

Mulcahy (2005) found a level of 35.5µg/m3 in Irish bars.

Nebot (2005) found levels between 19µg/m3 and 122µg/m3 in bars/discos.

Lopez (2008) measured levels of 32.99µg/m3 in discos/pubs.

All of these readings are far higher than the 9.6µg/m3 reported for cars in this new study. So what's going on? A clue is given in the Mulcahy study which reported a 35.5µg/m3 level before the Irish smoking ban, which fell to 5.95µg/m3 afterwards. 

And then the penny drops. The researchers are comparing the 'smoky' cars with smoke-free bars! It is quite unsurprising, then, that nicotine levels in premises where smoking is completely banned by law are lower than in a car where someone is smoking. Do we really need to pay scientists to tell us such things?

The real finding here is that nicotine levels in 'smoky' cars are much lower than in 'smoky' bars. But that wouldn't make for such a eye-catching headline, would it?



Friday, 4 September 2009

Pigeon amongst the cats

Now this should be interesting...

E-CIGARETTE COMPANY DONATIONS TO CANCER RESEARCH UK

UK Electronic Cigarette company cheapelectroniccigarettes.co.uk are today launching a scheme which will see 10p of every product sold being donated to Cancer Research UK.

Owner Michael Kitt stated, “We sell a lot of electronic cigarettes all over the world and feel that it is only right that we also support a charity which has the same vision as us – creating a smoke free environment around the world by offering clean smoking without tobacco, tar and the thousands of other chemicals found in traditional cigarettes.”

What to make of this? As a commentator over at Smoking 2.0 says:

Are they mad?

Anti-tobacco want e-cigs outlawed too.

CRUK receive money from pharma companies who are in direct competition with e-cigs.

Anti-tobacco certainly want e-cigarettes banned in the US, and have already succeeded in Australia, but what is the situation in the UK? One of ASH's stated objectives is "harm reduction", of which they say:

One way of reducing the harm caused by tobacco may be to facilitate the switch from smoked tobacco products to the use of ‘clean’, non-tobacco, nicotine products.

For years, ASH have officially supported the legalisation of snus, saying (in 2004) "there is no logic to the banning of snus, when cigarettes, which are far more deadly, are on general sale".

ASH director, Deborah Arnott, said in 2006:

"We currently have a situation where the safest form of smokeless tobacco in the EU is banned, and that's the form on sale in Sweden [snus]."

More recently, she claimed that:

"ASH is not fundamentalist about nicotine.''

This year, ASH's Martin Dockrell reiterated the point that nicotine itself is not harmful:

"Think of cigarettes as the dirty syringe of nicotine addiction. If you could get heroin that didn't cause any harm, what would be the problem? If you could nicotine that didn't harm people's health, what would be the problem?

I think we would like to see faster, stronger nicotine delivery systems available to smokers."

The truth is that ASH (UK) have never been "fundamentalist" about nicotine. They were set up in 1971 with a mission to reduce harm and although it is one of their most low-key campaigns, they do want to see the EU ban on snus overturned. With their objective of tobacco harm reduction, it is difficult to see how they can oppose the e-cigarette which is, undoubtedly, a "faster, stronger nicotine delivery system".

ASH (UK) have not, so far, demanded a ban on e-cigarettes (unlike their American namesakes). Since ASH receives substantial funding from Cancer Research, these new donations from the e-cigarette industry should ensure that things stay that way. Or will pressure from American fundamentalists and Big Pharma prevail?

More shisha madness

Over at Sp!ked, Patrick Hayes discusses the BBC's hysterical report about shisha smoking. As Hayes points out, the widely reported claim that shisha is "400 to 450 times worse than having a cigarette" is only the latest in a series of ever-escaltaing projections.
At worst, Dr Wareing claimed, ‘shisha was 400 to 450 times worse than having a cigarette’.

Wareing’s shock must have come from the finding that shishas are even more dangerous than believed following a 2007 study suggesting it was ‘200 times worse than a cigarette’, or 100 times worse, depending on who reported the study’s findings. The Department of Health is now working hard on ‘how best to get the message - that it is dangerous - across to the consumer’, grappling with the fact that it’s not easy to slap a warning sticker on a shisha pipe.

The research, however, has come under fire from some quarters, notably Dr Kamal Chaouachi, a tobacco expert from Paris IX University, who criticises the fact that the data has not yet been ‘peer reviewed or published’. Dr Chaouachi points out that shisha smoking is typically not ‘chronic’, with users usually partaking only one-to-three times a week, and criticises the way the study singles out carbon monoxide, which is relatively quickly flushed out of the body, for study: ‘Carbon monoxide is only one chemical out of thousands in cigarettes, so one cannot compare. But even if we look only at that chemical, shisha is not “worse” than cigarette smoking. The BBC should apologise [for its report on these findings].’

Dr Chaouachi knows of what he speaks and it's good to see at least a few news sources reporting his comments (see also
here and here). But he's still waiting for a full reply from the BBC. 

His comments about the shisha report can be read here, and an interview we conducted earlier in the year can be read here.





Wednesday, 2 September 2009

Getting the ball rolling

This blog will look at issues surrounding tobacco, alcohol, food, liberty, health scares and anything else that takes my fancy. How often it gets updated, I don't know. How many people will ever read it, I can't say. Still, while I get the site organised, I will be posting articles written over the last two years that have appeared at velvetgloveironfist.com beginning with a series of five articles that went under the title 1+1=11: Anti-smoking Science.

The theme is scientific incompetence and intellectual dishonesty in the anti-smoking movement. It looks at five of the most outlandish claims made by some of the movement's most influential figures in recent years to see how they originated. In each case, common sense dictated that the claim could not possibly be true and yet all of them have been widely circulated and have been almost universally accepted by the anti-smoking movement. How, in an age of reason, have so many people been fooled into disbelieving the evidence of their own eyes?

In none of the examples below is there any question of quibbling over the exact meaning of words, or technicalities, or over the relative importance of the findings. They are simply wrong and can easily be shown to be wrong. The only real question is whether these false claims were the result of a deliberate desire to mislead or were simply the result of incompetence. I leave that judgement to the reader.

The claims are:

1. 'Tornado-like rates of ventilation' are required to make a room safe from secondhand smoke

2. Secondhand smoke is more dangerous than firsthand smoke

3. It is plausible for a reduction in secondhand smoke exposure to reduce heart attack incidence by up to 60%

4. Passive smoking was killing 10,000 people a year in the UK before the smoking ban

5. Smokeless tobacco products are as hazardous as cigarettes

1+1=11: James Repace thinks of a number (part 1)

The claim that "tornado-level ventilation" is required to make a building "safe" from secondhand smoke was first made by James Repace, a prominent and fanatical anti-smoking activist since the 1970s. In those days, Repace - who has a degree in physics - was working at the electronics division of Washington's Naval Research Laboratory. By the end of the decade he had written his debut study into secondhand smoke, found a job at the Environmental Protection Agency (1) and soon became a well-known and well-paid anti-smoking spokesman and researcher. In 1998 he set up his own company - Repace Associates, Inc - and became a professional 'secondhand smoke consultant'.

His published papers on the subject of tobacco bear all the hallmarks of the theoretical physicist, with the emphasis heavily on the theoretical. In 2005, he made an effort to convince lawmakers that high tech ventilation systems were not the solution to what he called the "mortal hazard" of secondhand smoke and wrote a paper which concluded that the amount of ventilation required to make a room safe from smokers would be the equivalent of a "veritable indoor tornado." For those of us who have followed the rise of junk science in recent years, this quote has become something of a classic of the oeuvre, but the study from which it came is less well known.

Despite being intuitively ridiculous, the tornado claim has been repeated around the world. In addition to appearing six times on Repace's own website, a quick Google search reveals that it is currently being reported as fact by, amongst many others, ASH, Unison, Cancer Research UK, Americans for Nonsmokers Rights, the Clean Air Coalition, Smokefree Ohio, Stop Smoking Manchester, Smokefree Europe, the World Health Organisation and GASP (although the last three groups have settled for a mere 'hurricane').

The article in question was published in the house journal of the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) in 2005 (2). The publication may be obscure but Repace's decision to submit his paper to it was no accident since ASHRAE issue ventilation guidelines to the building industry. The article is unusually dense with technical jargon which, perhaps deliberately, has the effect of distracting and confusing the casual reader. In its closing paragraph Repace finally gets to the point. He makes two crucial assumptions:

1. The annual US death rate due to secondhand smoke in bars is 15 per 100,000 workers exposed.

2. In a nonsmoking bar, the desirable rate of ventilation is 18 air changes per hour*

Both of these statements are highly contentious but it is not necessary to debunk them individually to show that the tornado claim is nonsense and so, for the purposes of this article, we shall hold our nose and go along with them. Repace - in his roundabout and over-complicated way - multiplies the figure of 18 (the air changes) by 6,750 (which we will come to shortly) to show that a bar that allows smoking requires a whopping 121,500 air changes per hour in order to be as 'safe' as a nonsmoking bar. This equates to 33 air changes per second - a 'veritable tornado' indeed!

The underlying premise for all this is, as Repace wrote, that "since risk is inversely proportional to ventilation rate, the ventilation rate would have to be increased by the ratio of the number of estimated deaths." Doubtless there is some truth in the first part of this sentence. Ventilation surely does reduce risk from air-bound contaminants; this is why it is used in workplaces and scientific laboratories where dangerous chemicals are in the air. This was precisely the message that the hospitality industry, ventilation industry and tobacco industry had been trying to get through to policy makers for years. It was, alas, quite the reverse of the message that Repace and the pro-ban campaigners wanted to send and his tornado calculation hinges on the second part of that sentence ("the ventilation rate would have to be increased by the ratio of the number of estimated deaths.")

But why? What is the correlation? Why on earth should it be assumed that the ventilation rate needs to accelerated by the number of supposed deaths? It is rather like saying that speeding kills 1,000 people a year and therefore the speed limit must be reduced by a thousand to make the roads safe. A speed limit of 0.03mph would certainly make the roads safe but no one would propose such a limit because it is insane to take the correlation between speeding and road accidents quite so literally. In the case of Repace's equation, the very fact that the resulting figure amounts to no fewer than 33 air changes per second would have been enough to make most researchers take a step back and return to the proverbial drawing board. But James Repace is not most researchers and he not only stuck by his conclusion but added, presumably with a straight face, that "even greater airflow rates would apply for air cleaning, which inefficiently removes secondhand smoke gases."

The key number in this calculation is 6,750 (see footnotes for the rest**). Without multiplying 18 by such a high figure, Repace could not have arrived at his terrifying conclusion, so where does it come from? As it turns out, the figure of 6,750 is based on Repace's belief that 15 deaths per 100,000 (per year) are attributable to secondhand smoke amongst exposed workers. He then inflated this number by a factor of ten to arrive at 150 deaths per million and then multiplies that by 45 to represent the 45 years of working life and - voila! - 6,750 deaths. Leaving aside the fact that these estimates are themselves based on highly questionable data, the way in which he arrives at the 6,750 figure reveals that it is completely arbitrary.

It is not even an estimate of the absolute number of US deaths in a year, but an estimate of deaths per million per lifetime. And yet, measuring deaths per million is nothing more than an idiosyncratic statistical device (it is conventional to measure deaths per 100,000). By what twisted logic has it become the gold standard for determining ventilation levels? One might just as easily apply the more common usage of deaths per 100,000 (which would slash the figure to 675) or, since we're picking numbers out of the sky, inflate it further by basing it on deaths per ten million (making it 67,500). Where does it end?

Indeed, considering that he is multiplying it by the number of air changes per hour, it would be more reasonable to also use the estimated number of deaths per hour. This, however, is a figure of just 0.017 and it would have forced him to conclude that 0.3 air changes per hour would render a room safe - the very opposite of a 'veritable tornado'. I am tempted to say that using the hourly rate would make more sense but the whole premise is so absurd that sense does not enter into it. At best it would make it more consistent in its absurdity.

One can argue over whether a room really needs 18 air changes per hour to be 'safe' from environmental contaminants but Repace provides no evidence that this rate of ventilation needs to be increased at all where smoking is permitted, let alone by a factor of nearly seven thousand. What is plainly obvious is that the number Repace multiplies it by is plucked out of thin air. None of the numbers he uses have any relevance to one another except in his own imagination and they are applied to a premise that is, in any case, bereft of rationale. His whole study is based on a series of basic logical errors which, when exposed, bring the rest crashing down.

Postscript

In 1997, the Bellagio hotel and casino opened in Las Vegas with the kind of high-tech ventilation system that Repace claimed was hopelessly ineffective. The Bellagio ventilated its casino several times time every hour with 100% outdoor air. Smoking was permitted throughout, except for the high stakes poker room. In 1999 and again in 2005, air quality assessments found that the air in the casino was as clean or cleaner than that measured outdoors. Respirable suspended particulates (RSP) were found at the barely measurable levels of 12 to 58 micrograms per cubic metre (a microgram is a millionth of a gram) and less than half of the RSP was made up of tobacco smoke. This is far lower than the 400-600 micrograms found in some unventilated bars and is a fraction of OSHA's limit of 5000 micrograms(4)(5). Carbon monoxide levels ranged from 0.8 to 2 parts per million (ppm) - far lower than OSHA's limit of 25ppm. Nitrogen dioxide levels ranged from 0.23ppm to 0.46ppm - well below the permissible 3ppm limit - and nicotine levels were found to be between 3.4 and 9.2 micrograms - a fraction of OSHA's 500 microgram limit (6)(7).

Neither ASHRAE nor OSHA have ever endorsed Repace's study.


* Repace comes up with the figure of 18 air changes an hour by extrapolating from an ASHRAE guideline which stated that this was the amount of ventilation required in a smoky bar. Why Repace then decided he needed to inflate it further is anybody's guess. For the record, the typical ventilation in a bar is between 1 and 2 air changes an hour. In the home, it is even less; ASHRAE recommend private homes receive just 0.35 air changes per hour (3).


**It is worth studying how Repace arrives at the final figure as it provides further evidence of his numerical illiteracy. To do this we must bear two facts in mind:

1. The recommended number of hourly air changes (ACH) is equivalent to 60% of the recommended number of cubic feet per minute per person (cfm/occ) eg. 30 cpm/occ = 18 ACH.

2. There are two ASHRAE guidelines, one for smoky rooms and one for smoke-free rooms. The former requires 30 cfm/occ, the latter 9 cpm/occ.

Repace starts off with the 30 cfm/occ level that applies to smoky rooms and multiplies it by 6,750 = 202,500 cfm/occ. Had he followed this thinking through and worked out the number of air changes, he would have arrived at a figure of 121,500 (which is 60% of 202,500). Instead, he completely changes tack. "However," he writes, "the default ventilation rate for a smoke-free bar under [ASHRAE's] Standard 62.1-2004 is 9 cfm/occ (equivalent to 5.4 ACH)." This is quite true and he proceeds to work out what the 'safe' level would be using the 9 cfm/occ level.

There is a certain logic to using the standard for a smoke-free room since the aim of Repace's study was to find what ventilation is needed to make a room free of smoke. What happens next, however, is very strange.

Instead of multiplying 6,750 by 9 cpm/occ, he takes the figure of 202,500 which he arrived at before and divides it by 9. Why he does this is anybody's guess. This is just plain wrong - he should have divided by 30 and multiplied by 9 - but here, as in much of the rest of the paper, one searches in vain for any semblance of logic. This gives him 22,500, which he then multiplies by the leftover figure of 5.4 for no particular reason and arrives at...121,500 - the exact same number he would have got had he finished off his sums using the 30 cpm/occ figure (above).

A remarkable coincidence? Not a bit of it. Look again at where the crucial figures of 9 and 5.4 came from. 9 ccpm/occ is the ASHRAE indoor air guideline and 5.4 (60% of 9) is the recommended number of air changes pertaining to 9 cfm/occ. Now think of a number, any number. Let's say, for instance, that ASHRAE required a whopping 1,000 cpm/occ indoors and, therefore, 600 air changes per hour. Now do what Repace did. First take the figure of 202,500, divide it by 1,000 ( =202.5) and multiply it by 600. What do you get? That's right: a tornado level of 121,500 air changes per hour. No matter what number you start with, you will always end up with 121,500 because the equation will only ever give you 60% of 202,500. And so, whether ASHRAE requires one cubic foot of fresh air or a million, Repace's equation will always tell you that you need a tornado.

It's like a card trick in which the sleight of hand is executed before you start paying close attention and you end up with the card the magician wants you to have. In this case, the sleight of hand is in the first calculation (6,750 x 30 cfm/occ = 202,500) which looks like a red herring and which Repace appears to disown with a quick "however..." But he has not disowned it and he slips the 202,500 back in as if it were a relevant figure while appearing to be using the more relevant 9 cfm/occ figure. He then employs a final flurry of disorientating calculations, dividing it by 9 and then multiplying by 5.4. The effect is to give us 60% of the first number, which, remember, never belonged in the equation to begin with. It is a very roundabout way of getting there, but this boils down to multiplying 6,750 x 18 = 121,500.

(1) http://www.repace.com/Repace-CV.pdf

(2) http://www.repace.com/pdf/iaqashrae.pdf

(3) http://www.ieqcorp.com/ventilation.htm

(4) http://www.ornl.gov/info/press_releases/get_press_release.cfm?ReleaseNumber=mr20000203-00

(5) http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1637107

(6) www.americangaming.org/assets/files/studies/final_iaq_white_paper_7-7-06.pdf

(7) One nonsmoking visitor to The Bellagio said it has "an air filtration system that makes cigarette smoke almost undetectable, which was a big plus for us and a definate (sic) advantage over other casinos."

1+1=11: Secondhand news (part 2)

[Author's note: When I first wrote this article I had no idea how widespread is the notion than breathing secondhand smoke was more dangerous than smoking. Since putting the article online I have seen the traffic that has come to it by people searching under key words such as 'why is second hand smoke more dangerous than first hand smoke', 'second-hand smoke more dangerous than first-hand smoke', 'the reason second hand smoke is more dangerous than first hand', 'second hand smoking is worse than first because the particles are more concentrated' and 'why second hand smoke causes more harm than first hand'. That is just a very small sample.]

In the second of this series of articles looking at bizarre claims made by the anti-smoking movement, we shall see how the notion came about that secondhand smoke is more 'toxic' than firsthand smoke. As ridiculous as it is, this claim has recently gained considerable currency not only with anti-smoking groups but with the public and even with some politicians. No one individual is directly responsible for this myth arising and no published study has ever explicitly made the claim. Instead, the idea took hold because of a simple misunderstanding and was allowed to flourish because those who should know better had no desire to correct it.

What really started it off was a paper written by Stanton Glantz and Suzaynn Schick in 2005 for the Tobacco Control journal. Stanton Glantz is the high-priest of the anti-smoking movement and this is not the last time we shall encounter him in this series of articles. Having spent ten years studying mechanical engineering, Glantz abandonned the subject in 1973 to embark on a two year course in cardiology. In 1977, he was installed as an assistant professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco (1). With his bushy hair, spectacles and array of brightly coloured tee-shirts, Glantz looked every inch the nonconforming West Coast academic. In 1981, he co-founded Californians (later Americans) for Nonsmokers' Rights and set out on his long crusade to portray secondhand smoke as one of most dangerous poisons known to man.

The paper in question - 'Philip Morris toxicological experiments with fresh sidestream smoke: more toxic than mainstream smoke' - is actually perfectly sound for what it is: a straightforward review of a number of obscure experiments conducted by Philip Morris in the 1980s which came to light when the tobacco industry was forced to make its internal documents public in 1998.

The study discusses a series of experiments in which laboratory rats were exposed to very high levels of 'sidestream' and 'mainstream' smoke. Understanding the distinction between the two is crucial in what was to come. Sidestream smoke is, as Glantz correctly described it in the paper, "the smoke that rises from the tip of the burning cigarette between puffs" (2). Mainstream smoke is that which is inhaled and exhaled by the smoker. The definition of mainstream smoke is clumsy and muddled since there is a huge difference between inhaled and exhaled smoke. 1979 Surgeon General's report stated: "When the smoker inhales the mainstream smoke he exhales into the atmosphere less than one-seventh of the amount of volatile and particulate substances that were originally present in the smoke" (3). Exhaled smoke, then, is considerably less 'toxic' than either the smoke that comes from the burning tip or the smoke that is inhaled through the cigarette. That much has always been clear; but the Surgeon General also suggested that inhaled mainstream smoke might be also less toxic than sidestream smoke. It was this hypothesis that inspired the Philip Morris experiments, which began in 1981.

In a secret laboratory in West Germany, rats were placed in tight glass tubes and exposed to extreme concentrations of tobacco smoke on a daily basis. Some of the rats were forced to breathe mainstream smoke, others were given sidestream smoke. The only problem was that inhaled mainstream smoke is very difficult to reproduce and the scientists did so by using a very simple technique: they diluted it with air.



The diagram above was drawn by the scientists who conducted the experiments. The machine on the left is producing sidestream smoke from a smouldering cigarette. The machine on the right is producing mainstream smoke. Notice how the mainstream smoke is coming from the mouth-end of the cigarette and is going down a tube which is open at the top and bottom. This allows the smoke to be diluted by the air. If you look very carefully you can see the words 'dilution air' above it. Contrast that with the sidestream machine which is virtually sealed, thereby forcing concentrated tobacco smoke from the lit end into the tubes.

After three weeks, half the rats given the undiluted sidestream smoke had died; compared to just one from the mainstream smoke group. The hypothesis was proven: sidestream smoke was more toxic than mainstream smoke or, to put it more prosaically, the more smoke is filtered and diluted, the less toxic it becomes.

What could be learnt from this rather mundane and predictable finding? It told us nothing about passive smoking because the doses involved were thousands of times higher than would be inhaled by the heaviest smoker, let alone a passive nonsmoker. The rats that were given the 'sidestream' smoke were being practically asphyxiated with constant, pure tobacco smoke. The difference between the two was underlined by the temperature the rats endured: from a warm 25 degrees celsius in the mainstream smoke tubes to a decidedly toasty 34 degrees in the sidestream smoke tubes.

The scientists who conducted the experiments were well aware that they were not replicating real-life conditions, nor were they trying to. In their report, they stated the obvious: "Under real-life conditions sidestream smoke is diluted in the environment by ambient air and ages through contact and reaction with various surfaces." (4)

It would be several years before Philip Morris scientists began exposing rats to anything approximating real secondhand smoke and when they did so it was with very different equipment. Ageing and diluting the smoke was the key. The apparatus from a typical passive smoking study is shown below.

Note the 'conditioning room' between the cigarettes and the rats and note, too, how much more ventilation has been provided. Even with this dramatically less confined arrangement, those who conducted the experiments estimated that the rats were still being exposed to 10 to 100 times more smoke than any nonsmoker would ever experience, even in the most extreme real life situations. Despite these high doses, which lasted 8 hours a day, every day for up to a year at a time, none of the rats died and there was little evidence of physical harm.

But it was the first set of experiments that were the focus of Glantz and Schick's 2005 paper. The authors used them to show that "whole fresh sidestream smoke is 2-6 times more toxic" than mainstream smoke. The key words in this sentence, however, are "whole" and "fresh"; they were clearly only talking about the smoke that comes off the cigarette at the moment of combustion and not the mixture of sidestream smoke, mainstream smoke and ambient air that makes up secondhand smoke.

Glantz and Schick did not show the diagrams that I have reproduced here, but it should be immediately clear to anyone who views them that the Philip Morris scientists were using a very specific definition of sidestream smoke which had, at best, only a theoretical relevance to real-life human conditions.

It is commonly said that secondhand smoke is 85% sidestream smoke and 15% mainstream smoke. This completely ignores the ambient air which dilutes it. How much it is diluted by depends on the size of the room and the level of ventilation. An article in Regulatory Toxicology & Pharmacology estimated that passive smokers inhale 1/10,000th to 1/100,000th of the respirable tobacco smoke that smokers do. Even if the true figure is as low as 1/1,000th, the real breakdown of what constitutes secondhand smoke would be 0.085% sidestream smoke, 0.015% mainstream smoke and 99.9% ambient air. Once the diluting effect of the air is taken into account, the subtle differences between sidestream and mainstream smoke become largely academic.

The relative toxicity of sidestream and mainstream smoke is, therefore, a red herring. No nonsmoker inhales pure sidestream smoke or anything close to it. They might inhale secondhand smoke but that only contains a tiny amount of sidestream - and exhaled mainstream - smoke which has aged, broken down, clung to surfaces and been greatly diluted before it gets anywhere near them. Many of the constituents of secondhand smoke that people have been taught to fear cannot even be detected in secondhand smoke, even with modern scientific apparatus. Less than 10% of the chemicals that are said to be in mainstream smoke have ever been identified in secondhand smoke (5).

The difference between breathing sidestream smoke and secondhand smoke is rather like the difference between sucking exhaust fumes from a car's tailpipe and standing by a road. You might be being exposed to the same chemicals but the outcome is going to be very different.

For anti-smoking groups, the vast rate of dilution goes unmentioned. Part of the confusion lies in the terminology. Anyone not well-versed in the science could be forgiven for assuming that sidestream smoke is just another word for secondhand smoke. That being the case, it was almost inevitable that anti-smoking activists - whose understanding of science can be shaky at the best of times - would allow their heart to rule their head and assume that passive smoking was more dangerous than smoking.

A look at some typical quotes from anti-smoking websites shows how complex laboratory experiments have been dumbed down for public consumption:

"More than half of the smoke from a burning cigarette is not inhaled by the smoker. Instead this smoke enters into the surrounding environment. This sidestream smoke is inhaled by everyone (including the smoker) in the area. Sidestream smoke has twice as much nicotine and tar as the smoke that smokers inhale. It also has five times the carbon monoxide - a toxic gas that decreases the amount of oxygen in our blood." (6)

"Sidestream smoke is released directly into the air from the burning end of the cigarette. This unfiltered smoke is even more dangerous than mainstream smoke. Some studies have indicated that sidestream smoke contains twice as much tar and nicotine and three times as much carbon monoxide as mainstream. Most of the smoke that a nonsmoker is exposed to is the more dangerous, sidestream smoke." (7)

It would take a lawyer to decide if these statements can be described as technically accurate or not. Generally, anti-smoking groups are smart enough to limit their definition of mainstream smoke to mainstream exhaled smoke. When they do so, they are on safe ground. Smokers absorb most of the toxins in their bodies; consequently, what they breathe out is considerably less toxic than fresh smoke. This distinction, however, will go over the head of many readers, who will likely infer that breathing secondhand smoke is more dangerous than smoking itself.

And these are the more measured statements. There are plenty of other groups who have gone past suggestion and insinuation, and are now openly claiming that smoking is "worse" than smoking:

"Studies have found that secondhand smoke is even more dangerous than inhaled smoke because it burns hotter." (8) [Sidestream smoke actually burns at a lower temperature]

"Second-hand smoke is more dangerous than directly inhaled smoke. It releases the same 4,500 chemicals as smoke that is directly inhaled, but in greater quantity!" (9) [The exclamation mark that concludes this ludicrous sentence is well-deserved]

"Breathing second-hand smoke can be more dangerous than inhaling smoke through a cigarette. It has twice as much nicotine and tar as the smoke that people smoking inhale and five times more carbon monoxide, a deadly gas that starves your body of oxygen." (10)

"It has been scientifically proven that secondhand smokes [sic] are more dangerous to health than firsthand smoke. The smoker, who inhales the (mainstream) smoke "filters" it to some degree before exhaling it, but the non-smoker around him/her inhales the "pure" and more dangerous sidestream smoke. Besides the tar and nicotine in secondhand smoke, there are several cancer-causing substances in secondhand smoke, and in much higher concentration than in mainstream smoke. So, the person who smokes in public, around people, is giving himself/herself a lower dose of poisons, and giving his victims (family members, friends and strangers) around him/her a higher and a more deadly dose of poison." (11)

Once the anti-smoking groups adopted the idea, it was inevitable that the politicians they lobbied would succumb. State Rep. Peter J. Daley of Washington called for legislation to ban smoking in vehicles if one of the passengers was a child, saying: "We know that secondhand smoke is worse than firsthand smoke. The studies are all in, and we really want to protect the health of our children." (12)

And finally the idea took hold amongst the general population. The website Wiki Answers deals with the issue very succinctly: Q: Is second hand smoke worse than first hand?

A: Yes. Second hand smoking is more dangerous than first hand (13)

The myth of nonsmokers being in more danger than smokers is particularly prevalent on internet message boards, blogs and amongst young people in America and Canada who have been fed stories about passive smoking their whole lives. The net result is that secondhand smoke assumes the role of a supernaturally lethal gas and the wheels are greased for the passage of smoking bans. Those who might normally oppose a ban have been persuaded that passive smoking represents a peril too great to ignore.

Take this typical quote from a resident of Scranton, Pennsylvania who, when a smoking ban was brought in, was said to be "thrilled":

"Since they've proved secondhand smoke is worse than firsthand smoke, I'm all for the ban for the health reasons." (14)

In fairness to Glantz and Schick, their 2005 study did not claim that secondhand smoke was more toxic than firsthand smoke, only "fresh sidestream smoke". Nonetheless, Glantz is a shrewd operator who has publicly stated that he only does research if he believes it will help the anti-smoking cause (15). He must have known what he would unleash when he published the sidestream smoke study and, if not, he has certainly fanned the flames since.

What could be more ridiculous than saying that diluted smoke is more dangerous than concentrated smoke? How about saying that diluted smoke gets more dangerous as it gets older?

Step forward Stanton A. Glantz, who, in 2007, returned to the Philip Morris archive with a new article which made that very claim (also published in Tobacco Control). He did so by looking at the five Philip Morris passive smoking experiments mentioned earlier. These provided a wealth of information, even if it wasn't the kind of information anti-smoking groups wanted to hear. One of them, for example, found that "tumors [in the rats exposed to smoke] were similar in number to those seen in the sham-exposed groups." (16) Another reported that: "The test atmosphere had no effect on the general condition and behavior. During the inhalation period one rat died of a technical cause. No test atmosphere related mortality was observed." (17)

Glantz did not comment on the most notable outcome of the experiments - that heavy doses of secondhand smoke did not kill any of the rats - and actually disregarded three of the experiments completely. This left him with two passive smoking experiments, conducted in 1994 and 1997 (the apparatus shown in the second diagram above comes from the report of the 1997 experiment).

He compared these two secondhand smoke studies with the sidestream experiments of the early 1980s, paying particular attention to comments made by those who dissected the rats afterwards. He developed a points system of his own making which purported to measure the physical damage to the rats. These numbers were then entered into a convoluted mathematical equation, along with other data he gleaned or inferred from the written reports. When the calculations emerged from his computer something amazing happened: he was able to show that, pound for pound, the fresh sidestream smoke had caused less damage than the diluted secondhand smoke. Not only that, but the diluted secondhand smoke became more harmful as it got older (18).

This was entering the realms of madness. Half of the rats that had been given fresh sidestream smoke had died for goodness sake! It was hard to see how any more harm could have come to them. By contrast, none of the rats exposed to aged, diluted sidestream smoke had died.

Glantz admitted that he had no idea what "the mechanism for the increased toxicity of aged sidestream smoke" might be, although he seriously suggested that smoke particles absorbed in home furnishings could wait a while before springing back into the air to attack nonsmokers (19).

Glantz also accepted that earlier studies of sidestream smoke had shown "toxicity decreased rapidly in the first 30 seconds of aging." And he noted that, according to his mathematical equation, one experiment had shown that toxicity trebled with ageing and the other showed that it halved. Glantz described this as "remarkable." 'Magical' would have been a better word; the two findings were completely at odds with one another.

If the fact that his hypothesis went against existing toxicological principles was not enough to make Glantz question his own methodology then his own conflicting data should have been. And these were not the only flaws. The experiments Glantz re-examined were conducted years apart, by different scientists, with different apparatus and were designed to study completely different things. The collected reports for these experiments runs to many hundreds of pages, but in none of them is there any suggestion sidestream smoke becomes more toxic with age. In fact, when the results of one of the experiments were published in Toxicological Science in 1998, the authors concluded that the opposite was true: "The results of this study show that room-aging in general reduces the biological activity of FSS [fresh sidestream smoke]." (20)

Not a man crippled by self-doubt, Stanton Glantz ignored all the evidence that he might be wrong and pushed on with his hypothesis:

"If sidestream smoke is approximately three times more toxic than fresh sidestream, and fresh sidestream is approximately four times more toxic than mainstream smoke, then aged sidestream smoke is approximately 12 times more toxic than mainstream smoke."

And there you have it. Sidestream smoke is TWELVE times more deadly than mainstream smoke! So if you're worried about secondhand smoke, make sure you get close to the burning cigarette so it doesn't get too old. If you really want to play it safe, smoke the cigarette yourself.*

* Not really

See http://www.velvetgloveironfist.com/index.php?page_id=38 for references.