FOREST have released the results of a survey they commissioned to gauge support for the generational tobacco ban that is the centrepiece of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill. The majority of respondents are, quite sensibly, against it. 59% of respondents said that people aged 18 or over should be allowed to buy tobacco.
Opinion polls are notorious for using leading questions, and people who respond to surveys are (a) easily swayed (b) afflicted by social desirability bias and (c) unlikely to think about second order consequences. It could be argued that the question above primes people to agree with adults being able to do things by listing some other things adults can do. But the survey also asked a question that is about as neutral as it could be. It describes what the government is planning and asked if they agree with it. Only 35% of respondents did, although note that support for people being allowed to buy tobacco at the age of 18 drops to 25% when they are offered the alternative of a 21 year age limit.
People also understand that prohibition, even if introduced gradually, fuels the black market.
And they can understand why smokers' tax morale is at rock bottom.
When the state-funded prohibitionists at ASH commission studies, they find majority support for the generational ban. How do they do it? Actually, it's not clear how they do it because they don't always publish the wording of their surveys. In May, they announced that their YouGov survey found "overwhelming public support for a bold smokefree future" and that "two-thirds of the public (68%) back the ‘Smokefree Generation’ policy".
But the report ASH published did not give the wording of the question. All it said was that people "support the Smokefree Generation". If all they were asked was whether they supported the "Smokefree Generation", I suppose that's unsurprising. Were they told what that meant?
We may never know. The survey is not available on the YouGov website, which doesn't seem like best practice to me. The media shouldn't give any coverage to opinion polls unless it is clear what questions have been asked.
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