I've returned to the topic of bad obesity predictions for The Critic.
What is the purpose of pointless projections that are so bad they make the Bank of England look like clairvoyants? The authors of the 2011 Lancet study admitted that their projections were “mere extrapolations from available data” and that “past trends do not always predict the future”. Indeed they do not. In Britain, the big rise in obesity ended twenty years ago and its causes are not fully understood. Rates of obesity have ticked up since 2006, but only gently and inconsistently while rates of overweight have not increased at all. There is no reason to base future projections on the assumption that obesity rates will suddenly start rising like they did in the 1990s.
No comments:
Post a Comment