Friday, 9 September 2011

Another Alcohol Con

If you haven't already bookmarked the excellent Straight Statistics, you really should. Their latest article is a routine debunking of some routine junk science from Alcohol Con(cern) who came up with the amazing finding that alcohol sales correlate with alcohol consumption. Or, to be precise, that alcohol-related hospital admissions are correlated with the number of off-licenses in an area.

But not in London. So they left that out.

This is such a blatant conflation of correlation and causation that even Ben Goldacre—who never criticises 'public health' bad science and sometimes defends it—emerged to poke fun at it.


A red-faced Don Shenker knew exactly what he was talking about and replied...


To which Goldacre rightly responded...


As Straight Statistics points out, Alcohol Concern quite explicitly did claim causality:

Under the heading Methodological Qualifications, the new report states: “This study did not set out to establish cause and effect.” Yet the previous page asserts that nearly 10 per cent of all alcohol specific hospital admissions in England, excluding London, are directly attributable to off-licence density, “meaning availability rather than any other external factor is the cause of one in ten of such harms”.

So either Don Shenker doesn't understand that if you say something is "the cause" you are claiming causality or he is a liar. I make no judgement on that but urge you go read the rest.

Thursday, 8 September 2011

Stunning stupidity

In these intellectually retarded times, mistaking correlation for causation is so common that it takes something really special to grab my attention. But every once in a while, someone puts the cart before the horse in a way that is so monumentally bone-headed that it almost becomes a work of art.

For example, it seems obvious that people who have greater willpower will be more likely to give up smoking. Obvious, that is, unless you are the Daily Mirror...

Quitting smoking gives you stronger willpower than current or non-smokers, study finds

Giving up smoking not only improves your health – it raises your willpower, too.

Quitters have the strongest activity in their brain’s frontal lobes, which control behaviour, a study found.

Experts took MRI scans of current, ex and non-smokers as they performed tasks to test skills linked to smoking, such as avoiding distraction by cigarette-related images.

Smokers lost concentration before others, the Trinity College Dublin study said. Prof Hugh Garavan added in NeuroImage that quitting helped “exercise control”.

Wow. Just wow.

Wednesday, 7 September 2011

One born every minute

Surely the pub industry won't fall for this?

Alcohol Concern praises pubs

The chief executive of Alcohol Concern Don Shenker has praised pubs for improving community life.

Writing a column in the Society of Independent Brewers’ membership magazine Shenker expressed support for “responsible drinking” and deplores the current drinking culture that “values drinking at home over going to the pub.”

Don Shenker, leader of the country's foremost temperance group—sorry, 'alcohol control' group—wants you to believe that he supports the British pub. The bait on the fish hook is minimum pricing, which some pubs think will draw in the drinkers that the smoking ban forced out. They're wrong, and having been duped by one fake charity (ASH), they're getting ready to be tricked by another (Alcohol Con).

Alcohol Concern are trying to pitch themselves as being against drinking at home, rather than drinking per se. But let's remember that the temperance lobby has traditionally attacked the pub with fury (as you would expect) and have, if anything, been more tolerant of drinking at home. There's a reason why the Anti-Saloon League was not called the Anti-Beer League and it's the same reason anti-alcohol campaigners have always tried to limit opening times and reduce the number of pubs that can open. Pubs have always been their enemy and always will be. Every place that sells alcohol will be in the cross-hairs.

Can the pub companies really be so dumb as to be tricked by Shenker's nauseatingly insincere eulogy? This is a pressure group that wants to reduce licensing hours, lower the drink-drive limit and, only three days ago, was applauding moves to force pubs to pay still more taxes.

The late-night levy is part of the Police Reform and Social Responsibility Bill. Licensing authorities will be able to charge from £300 to nearly £4,440 depending on the premises.

...While the charity Alcohol Concern welcomes the extra charge on venues, it says it will do nothing to prevent the heavy drinking.

"The levy on the drinks industry won't actually address the root cause," said chief executive Don Shenker.

"It won't stop people necessarily from drinking too much alcohol. The way to deter people from drinking too much alcohol is to raise the price of alcohol."

Leg-Iron called this one right...

While the charity Alcohol Concern welcomes the extra charge on venues, it says it will do nothing to prevent the heavy drinking.

If it will achieve nothing, why do you welcome it, Darth? Does it make you excited to see the proles suffer for no reason at all? It does, doesn't it?

"The levy on the drinks industry won't actually address the root cause," said chief executive Don Shenker.

Then why do it? Here is the Chief Puritan himself admitting that this measure will no nothing more than put an awful lot of people out of work. Yet he welcomes that. This man is paid from your taxes, you have no means to get rid of him and he controls the Tory, Lib Dem and Labour policies on alcohol. Remember that at the next election.

The last few years have seen the pub industry lurch from one disaster to another. Five years ago they were tricked by ASH into believing the smoking ban would lead to a great Renaissance of the British boozer. Earlier this year, the Scottish Licensed Trade Association got into bed with the temperance lobby to support a minimum price for alcohol (which is now on its way). The drinks company Diageo was haplessly funding Alcohol Focus until it finally noticed that the temperance lobby is not their friend. CAMRA... well, don't even get me started on CAMRA.

And now we have Dong Shaker sneaking into the picture with a bunch of flowers in one hand and a dagger in the other. How stupid does he think they are?

Pretty stupid, actually. And he might be right...

The Society of Independent Brewers has sought to build a relationship with Alcohol Concern, having earlier this year become a corporate member of the organisation.

“Our dialogue with Alcohol Concern has revealed common ground — in particular the role played by the pub in promoting responsible drinking – which we should be using as a foundation for a joint strategy,” said Grocock.

Good grief. Better bring a long spoon to sup with. The title of the Pub Curmudgeon's post about this says it all: Granny, what big eyes you’ve got.

Alcohol Concern have found "common ground" alright, but it's not with the pub trade. Maybe the Society of Independent Brewers should pop along to their next conference...




Sunday, 4 September 2011

A useful website

Presumably inspired by the Indepedent's underwhelming exposés, an online pressure group has launched an e-mail campaign to get the government to force tobacco companies to say how much they spend marketing to kiddies. The group is called 38 Degrees and it was formed by the likes of Laurie Penny and Sunny Hundal to fight the so-called cuts.

Undeterred by the fact that all tobacco advertising was banned in the UK thirteen years ago, and that marketing to children was banned decades earlier, 38 Degrees are putatively concerned because tobacco companies "reportedly spend a fortune on designing cigarette brands and packs so they are more youth friendly". Note the careful, lawyer-pleasing use of the word "reportedly"—most cigarette packaging has barely changed since the 1940s. They're also worried about "special promotions at music festivals" like this:


omfg, it says "cigarettes"!!!


38 Degrees are not prepared to put up with this kind of filth...

It’s time that tobacco companies were forced to reveal exactly how much they spend on marketing, and how much they spend on marketing that could be viewed by young people (even if they are not the intended audience). The Government can force tobacco companies to do this. But they won’t do it unless we tell them to.

I could be wrong, but I'm not convinced that the government actually does have the power to demand to know a company's marketing budget. Certainly, no company would be able to calculate how much marketing might be seen by the unintended audience, especially since 38 Degrees' definition of marketing includes daft things like packet design.

Nevertheless, people who don't understand the difference between private companies and public information can go to 38 Degree's website and send a pre-written e-mail to their member of parliament.

It takes just two minutes to write to your MP and tell them why you think the Government should force tobacco companies to publish annually how much they spend on marketing that could be viewed by young people. Put in your postcode and click “Participate” to get started. it’ll only take 2 minutes.

It's a nice bit of software because all you do is put in your post-code and it automatically finds your MPs' e-mail address.

Of course, you don't have to use the pre-written text...

Click to enlarge




Friday, 2 September 2011

The stink

I've written before (with barely concealed mirth) about the twin neuroses of Multiple Chemical Sensitivity and Electrosensitivity. These are two would-be diseases involving people who believe they are allergic to the modern world. Perfumes, wi-fi, electricity, detergents, smoke of any kind, etc. The champions of these syndromes are particularly obsessed with fragrances. Readers of Velvet Glove, Iron Fist—of whom I hope and trust you are one—will remember these folks as the "no scents is good sense" people.

Although the two syndromes are totally different, with one involving chemical 'toxins' supposedly affecting the lungs and the other involving electrical waves affecting the brain, people who suffer from one have a remarkable tendency to suffer from the other. The symptoms are classically psychosomatic and unprovable—panic, fatigue, coughing, light-headedness etc.—and the 'victims' are predominantly middle class women living in rich countries, especially Canada and America. If Multiple Chemical Sensitivity and Electrosensitivity are real diseases, it's strange that they target such a specific group of people. So strange, in fact, that you might almost suspect that the tree-hugging hippy crap they believe about getting back to nature has turned into psychosis.

People who suffer from Multiple Chemical Sensitivity—or Californian Asthma, as I prefer to call it—are determined to have their malady recognised by health authorities. They are insistent that minute traces of anything they consider to be 'unnatural' are having a profound effect on their health. Unfortunately for them, science does not agree. There's no doubt that they believe that they are ill, but double-blind control trials suggest that the only illness they suffer from is, not to put too fine a point on it, of the mental variety.

And so I was interested to hear about this study which appears to give the MCS faction some hope.

Scented laundry products emit hazardous chemicals through dryer vents

The same University of Washington researcher who used chemical sleuthing to deduce what's in fragranced consumer products now has turned her attention to the scented air wafting from household laundry vents.

This is a study of the air that comes out of laundry machines when you use detergents. I'm not going to go through the findings in detail, suffice to say that the intrepid researcher held a jar to the outlet vent of a washing machine and found various chemicals at incredibly low levels (parts per billion+). She then uses the old "no safe level" canard to imply that they constitute a health hazard. If you need to know why this is junk you're probably reading the wrong blog. Like the infamous third-hand smoke study, it's not that the science is wrong necessarily, just that it is irrelevant unless you can show harm to health.

This study has been published in the obscure, but peer-reviewed, journal Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health and was authored by Dr. Anne Steinemann, who has published in peer-reviewed journals before and has a degree in Civil Engineering from the University of California. So it can't just be a load of old guff written by be one of these hyper-sensitive cranks with an axe to grind, can it?

Unless, of course, she's the same Anne Steinemann who joined this electrosensitivity internet group (how does that work?) a few weeks ago...

Dear All,

Thank you for a wonderful group. I am a new member, and have looked through the old posts to find answers, so please pardon me if you've already addressed these issues.

(1) I am being severely affected by WiFi signals coming from neighbors' homes. (I see at least 10 signals on my computer.) I have tried talking with them, to see if they would at least turn off their WiFi at night - no luck. What other mitigations are possible? (I realize that I am probably going to have to move - but how do I survive in the meantime?)

(2) I'd like a way to measure the EMFs around a house, before I move into it. I have a Tri-Field meter already, but it evidently doesn't pick up WiFi signals.

What would you recommend?

Please e-mail me directly at anne.steinemann@... with your responses.

Many thanks,

Anne Steinemann

Anne Steinemann has previously told people to clean their houses with vinegar and baking soda and has produced a study showing that there are chemicals in soaps and detergents. Well, yes. And so what? There are chemicals in vinegar, and everything else, too. The mere presence of a chemical is not evidence of harm. It is not even suggestive of harm. But it is to these people, because all chemicals are evil and the dose does not make the poison.

The most stupid and dangerous thing the Surgeon General ever did was come up with his "no safe level" of secondhand smoke line. He did it purely to scare people and probably didn't believe it himself, but when a top medical authority goes out of his way to induce hypochondria, you open the floodgates to every loon who wants to ban the things that displease them.

"The feeling is growing that you shouldn't be putting these things in environments where everyone is exposed," Miller said. Like second-hand tobacco smoke, she said, scented products expose people to hazards against their will. "Your right to wear fragrance ends at my nose."

Does this rhetoric sound at all familiar? It doesn't matter that these studies do little more than show how sophisticated their measuring equipment is. All that matters is that a list of peer-reviewed studies is built up to shove under the nose of some clueless lawmaker in the future. The fact that the studies themselves tell us nothing is unimportant. After all, when did a politician—or a journalist—ever read a study?

Thursday, 1 September 2011

The Independent's 'exclusive'

The Independent recklessly puts a cigarette pack with full colours
 and no warning on its cover. Won't somebody think of the children? etc.

I wasn't planning on writing anything about Philip Morris's Freedom of Information request, as reported in the Independent today. Only the shock of finding out it was on the front page has made me think that anybody might be interested. The 'exclusive' story (of PM seeking the raw data of a survey published in a Cancer Research briefing which lobbied for plain packaging in 2008) has been around for weeks and was reported by the Herald back in July so I don't know what all the fuss is about now.

The Independent's angle is that the FOI request was "vexatious", but this question was answered by the Scottish Information Commissioner on July 22nd...

Following an investigation, the Commissioner found that the information request was not vexatious. He also found that the University had unreasonably sought clarification from PMI before responding to its request and that, as a consequence, had failed to respond to the request within the time limit set down by FOISA.

In addition, he found that the University did not fulfil its duty under section 15 of FOISA in relation to providing advice and assistance to PMI.

This is really quite straightforward. PM requested the data, the University of Sterling refused to hand it over, it went to arbitration, PM won and Linda Bauld et al. have nowhere left to turn. And so, like many desperate and deluded people, they have turned to the Independent. I have little to add to what Heather Brooke says in The Guardian. We have Freedom of Information laws in this country to give us access to the research that we pay for and special interest groups cannot pick and choose who gets to use them.

When a scientist—or, in Bauld's case, professor of socio-management (whatever the hell that means)—refuses to allow access to their data in defiance of the law, we are entitled to think that they might have something to hide. It's not a "war on science". Scientists used to pride themselves on having their work tested by their critics. A few good ones still do. And so, after being profoundly uninterested in this story, I am rather intrigued at what the data show and why these researchers are so keen to keep it secret.

My only complaint is that so much attention has been given to an inconsequential study that featured in a long-forgotten Cancer Research UK report in 2008. There are any number of genuinely important suspect studies published by the Centre for Tobacco Control Research (for it is they) which Philip Morris could have put under the spotlight. We could, and should, have been talking about them today.

Dick Puddlecote (from whom I snatched the photo above) and the aforementioned Heather Brooke have more on this.

Anti-tobacco and anti-alcohol swap notes again

The day might come when I get tired of reminding drinkers of how foolish they were to doubt the slippery slope, but that day is not today, so let's have look at the next ASH (Wales)/Alcohol Concen conference, shall we?



That seems fairly unambiguous and it's a nice sequel to the recent 'alcohol and tobacco summit' in Scotland. Being an ASH event, it is of course sponsored by the pharmaceutical companies Novartis and Pfizer, and some of the country's top anti-smoking fantasists will be sharing their tips with the temperance lobby, including Gerard Hastings, a man who thinks the Ferrari logo looks like a Marlboro packet.

Temperance campaigners will be particularly excited to hear that Linda "the smoking ban didn't hurt pubs" Bauld and Anna "but it did reduce the number of heart attacks" Gilmore will be attending. Alcohol Concern are not slouches when it comes to bending the truth themselves, but these two have the know-how to go nuclear with the junk science. Let's remind ourselves of some of their greatest hits.

According to Linda Bauld, the smoking ban had "no clear adverse impact on the hospitality industry". And here, using pub closure figures from the British Beer and Pub Association, we can see what "no clear adverse impact" looks like:




And in her study of heart attacks in England, Anna Gilmore said: "We conclude that the implementation of smoke-free public places is associated with significant reductions in hospital admissions for myocardial infarction." Hmm, quite. And here's that significant reduction in full (the figures come from her own study):




Considering that the world and his wife has swallowed the idea that the smoking ban didn't damage the pub trade but did reduce the heart attack rate, you can see why any lobbyist would want to kneel at the feet of these two conjurors. Well done Alcohol Concern, you wanted the best. You got the best.