If things continue at the current rate, 40% of the Scottish population will be obese 15 years from now.
So what is the current rate? According to the Scottish government...
Between 1995 and 2008, adult (16-64) overweight (including obesity) and obesity rates increased by 10.5% and 8.5%, respectively. However, no further increases have been observed since.
And amongst children?
...the proportion of girls meeting the healthy weight criteria has been relatively stable between 1998 and 2013. Contrastingly, healthy weight prevalence in boys decreased by more than 9% between 1998 and 2008, although it has since increased again.
So, in summary...
Following significant increases between 1995 and 2008, adult overweight and obesity rates in Scotland have since stabilised
The current rate is therefore zero. It could go up. It could go down. But if anyone wants to bet that it will be 40 per cent by 2031, my door is open if your wallet is.