More reasons to doubt the official data on the illicit tobacco trade

I have written before about why HMRC's estimates of illicit tobacco sales are demonstrably wrong and greatly underestimate the size of the market. Aside from their figures being a mathematical impossibility and defying the evidence of one's eyes, there is a further reason to be suspicious of HMRC's claims.

HMRC reckons the manufactured cigarettes sold illegally in 2023/24 would be worth £800 million if sold at the normal retail price. But HMRC also tells us that cigarettes worth £697 million were seized by the authorities in 2023/24. 

If true, this means that the authorities are seizing nearly half (46%) of the cigarettes that are entering Britain before they can be sold. Who knew the British state could be so effective? It is much less effective at seizing cocaine (19%) or cannabis (26%) for example. If the figures are right, it isn't very good at tackling rolling tobacco either, having got hold of only £42 million's worth of it in 2023/24, a mere 2% of the supposed total.  

It doesn't pass the smell test, does it? The overwhelmingly more likely explanation fits with what anybody can see if they have their eyes open: the streets are awash with illicit whites and the authorities are - as ever - only intercepting a small fraction of it.