Total consumption theory in the mud

A new study from alcohol researchers at Toronto's Centre for Addiction and Mental Health looking at 14 countries in 2020-21 has an interesting story to tell about drinking during the pandemic.

 

Results: When compared to 2019, alcohol-specific mortality rates in 2020 increased by 7.7 % and 8.2 % for women and men, respectively. Increases in alcohol-specific mortality were seen in the majority of countries and continued in 2021. In contrast, alcohol sales declined by an average of 5.0%.  

Conclusion: Despite a drop in alcohol consumption, more people died due to alcohol-specific causes during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe.

 

This is exactly the opposite of what you would see if there were any truth in the total consumption theory/single distribution theory/whole population approach beloved of the neo-temperance lobby and the Scottish government.  

According to NICE, who have bought into this self-serving dogma, "the number of people who drink a heavy or excessive amount in a given population is related to how much the whole population drinks on average. Thus, reducing the average drinking level, via population interventions, is likely to reduce the number of people with severe problems due to alcohol."

 

This has always been nonsense. Heavy drinkers don't care what average drinkers consume. Heavy drinking and per capita consumption are only connected insofar as heavy drinkers have a disproportionate impact on per capita consumption because they drink so much. The idea that "reducing the average drinking level" will, in and of itself, reduce heavy drinking and alcohol-related harm is absurd. As I argued in Lockdown Lessons in Health Economics, the UK's experience during Covid disproves the theory. In fact, the UK had been disproving the theory for 20 years before Covid came along. So have other countries.

It's a garbage theory used to justify meddling with moderate drinkers. It needs to die.