tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post8140397835315833933..comments2023-10-17T15:56:22.827+01:00Comments on Velvet Glove, Iron Fist: Deluded Debs deep in denialChristopher Snowdonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15963753745009712865noreply@blogger.comBlogger57125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-73616211322410672762011-03-01T23:06:35.324+00:002011-03-01T23:06:35.324+00:00As Australia used to grow tobacco commercially I&#...As Australia used to grow tobacco commercially I'd assumed that most of it was locally grown chop chop rather than manufactured cigarettes, but one of those articles suggested that these days the majority of illegal tobacco is smuggled in from Indonesia. No idea what the preferred means is but even if the ports and airports were absolutely watertight just looking at a map shows that between Perth and Darwin is a stretch of several thousand kilometres of mostly uninhabited coastline for anyone starting out from Indonesia wanting to bring anything ashore. I'm sure an eye is kept on the most likely spots but it seems like an awfully big task to watch all of it.<br /><br />And even if they can prevent all smuggling there's still the chop chop. The bottom line is that if Aussies want to smoke they'll always be able to no matter what the government do to the price. As for plain packaging, since there's already a display ban and the cigs are all under the counter or in cupboards - or at least it is here in Victoria and I know it is in NSW and the ACT - what the hell's the point? <br /><br />Oh, this'll give you a giggle - VIC exempted tobacco shops from the display ban on the basis that it's a tobacconist and the front door does an equivalent job. The ACT did not, so when you go into a tobacconist in the nation's capital you're greeted by rows of plain cupboard doors to hide the cigarettes from casual view, even though casual viewers who don't want cigarettes wouldn't have entered the shop in the first place.Angry Exilehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02491082312193274360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-90750251575336994542011-03-01T11:19:53.881+00:002011-03-01T11:19:53.881+00:00Thanks AE,
Out of interest, where do most smuggle...Thanks AE,<br /><br />Out of interest, where do most smuggle cigs come from into Australia? <br /><br />ChrisChristopher Snowdonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15963753745009712865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-44469610499868797002011-03-01T07:21:50.633+00:002011-03-01T07:21:50.633+00:00More from Down Under in The Age today with claims ...More from Down Under in <i>The Age</i> today with claims being made that the high tax here has been accompanied by a 25% in illicit smokes. Okay, that's the CEO of Philip Morris saying that, but he's not the only one saying illegal trade has increased.<br /><i>"Data published by the Australian Customs and Border Protection Service does show an increase in tobacco smuggling in 2009-10, a year that includes two months of the stiff rise in cigarette taxes. Detection of illicit tobacco totalled 310,707 kilograms last financial year, nearly double the 175,405 kilograms detected in 2008-09. More than 68.72 million cigarettes were detected, up from 50.177 million the year before."</i><br /><br />Even Arnott's opposite number down here concedes the point, though she still thinks the extra tax will make up for it.<br /><i>"Fiona Sharkie, executive director of Quit Victoria, said a rise in illicit trade was expected when the tax was increased, but this would pale in comparison against the revenue raised."</i><br /><br />Personally I think she's dreaming.<br /><br />Incidentally, Snowdon, some interesting comment on the plain packaging plan in that article too.Angry Exilehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02491082312193274360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-6128027548489906432011-02-28T18:18:53.822+00:002011-02-28T18:18:53.822+00:00Hey, Rollo, ye troubadour of Tripe®, defender of A...Hey, Rollo, ye troubadour of Tripe®, defender of Arnott-upon-Ash. See if you can wake up a few neurons to consider this information.<br /><br />www (dot) cnbc (dot) com/id/41785506Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-45791479929204021612011-02-28T16:02:50.316+00:002011-02-28T16:02:50.316+00:00Perhaps Rollo is right about base prices, but the ...Perhaps Rollo is right about base prices, but the general principle that both high prices and differential prices encourage smuggling is surely true. Apparently the Danes have lowered duty to combat smuggling.<br />First, if cigs cost £1 in country A and £2 in the UK, there won't much smuggling because most people are happy paying £2. But if the figures are £3 and £6, there will be smuggling, as £42 per week is a lot of money to most people and £3 per packet is a lot of money to most criminals. This is why an aquaintance of mine started to buy European Golden Virginia. The retail price in Europe is £4.17. The UK duty is £6.47 and vat is charged on top of the duty, so duty plus vat on duty is £7.60. The price in the UK (this is a reliable unbroken supply) is £8.50. This is a saving of £3.50 off the UK duty paid price of £12.75.<br /><br />Here's some history I found on day-tripper.net. Does it match up with what Rollo is claiming? <br /><br />"Price check (June 2007). Fancy that! People moan that things are not what they use to be. However if you consider that Golden Virginia cost £1.80 in Belgium in 1998 and in the United Kingdom it cost £7.80, that equals a saving of £6.00 a packet (50 grams). In 2007 the Belgium price has risen to £3.15, and in England it is now £10.66. The saving is now £7.51 a packet.<br /><br />With cigarettes the saving has actually widened even more. In 1998 Marlboro cost £1.91 in Belgium in 1998 and in the United Kingdom it cost £3.36, that equals a saving of £1.45 a packet. In 2007 the Belgium price has risen to £2.90, and in England it is now £5.31. The saving is now £2.41 a packet"<br /><br />So, Belgian GV has increased from <br />£1.80 in 1998 to £4.17 in 2011 (x2.32). UK GV has increased from £7.80 to £12.75 (x1.63).<br />We see that in percentage terms, Belgian GV has increased by more, probably because until recently emerged, there was virtually no duty. However, the gap between the Belgian and UK prices has increased from £6 to £8.58. It is the price gap which is important. That is why day-tripper.net is writing about it. Think of day trippers as legal smugglers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-62302026718708894532011-02-28T12:41:57.119+00:002011-02-28T12:41:57.119+00:00IF smuggling is falling, it is the fact they are c...IF smuggling is falling, it is the fact they are catching fewer.<br /><br />The availability of smuggled tobacco all over Europe shows that.<br /><br />Ten years ago you could get it, if you knew where to go. NOW every railway station in Berlin has their "dealer".Furor Teutonicushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13856575077967523322noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-64168672183059893012011-02-28T11:27:08.269+00:002011-02-28T11:27:08.269+00:00Looks like we're going to have to agree to dif...Looks like we're going to have to agree to differ on this, old bean. <br /><br />In the world I live in, smuggled tobacco has never been more widespread, taxes have never been higher and Arnott wrote an article saying "it wasn't disparities in tax that led to the growth in smuggling." In your world, Arnott didn't say that, smuggling is has nothing to do with tax, taxes and smuggling are both falling and the real villain is Big Tobacco for making up 20% of the RRP.<br /><br />Never the twain...Christopher Snowdonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15963753745009712865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-85453309627240419902011-02-28T07:54:41.684+00:002011-02-28T07:54:41.684+00:00Your "figures" only prove that custome a...Your "figures" only prove that custome are catching fewer "smugglers". When I lived in Bathgate, there was not ONE bloody person on out scheme, that bought fags in a shop.<br /><br />Every one of them smoked was from the "market".<br /><br />And the guys on the market went from bringing a couple of M+S shopping bags per week, through customs, to buying TWO bastarding transits to carry the stuff.<br /><br />BUT, if they had been caught, it was STILL only "five cases of smuggling" in the court. The same as it would have been had they been caught with two shopping bags.Furor Teutonicushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13856575077967523322noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-30736911526408711122011-02-28T07:40:12.825+00:002011-02-28T07:40:12.825+00:00Chris: You say “Smuggling will rise when people fe...Chris: You say “Smuggling will rise when people feel they are being ripped off and/or can simply not afford to pay the official price.” I recall people feeling exactly that way 10 or even 20 years ago. They weren’t thinking “Wow, prices might be high now but at least they’re not as high as they will be in 2011”. You’re the one who’s claiming there has been a “growth of a vast smuggling and counterfeiting industry which didn't exist until a few years ago”. That’s not explained by prices being a bit higher now than 10 years ago.<br /><br />You state “Arnott is flatly denying” that demand for the illicit trade will increase as prices of legitimate products rise. I think you’re misrepresenting her. Smuggling requires demand and supply. Your argument only takes account of the demand side, not supply. Arnott’s argument focuses on supply – and the increasing success customs authorities are apparently having in stemming the amount of illicit tobacco being made available for sale.<br /><br />As for your reticence to criticise poor little Big Tobacco…… You try to explain your way to justify price differentials by referring to “relative labour costs and overheads”. Well that is certainly true – to an extent. But it does not explain why the base price of a pack of 20 in the UK is SEVEN times higher than in Poland, nor why it is over 60% higher than in France and almost 150% higher than in Spain.Rollo Tommasinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-67093779529380856002011-02-27T21:13:56.789+00:002011-02-27T21:13:56.789+00:00Forty years ago, I had three children to bring up....Forty years ago, I had three children to bring up. I smoked and I drank. Thirty years ago, the same still applied. And so also, twenty years ago. The prices that I was paying for tobacco and alcohol did not figure very much.<br /><br />What has been changing very rapidly over the last fifteen years or so has been the very rapid escalation in demands upon our income. Examples (water charges, house prices, council tax, gadgets?) will readily occur. <br /><br />Only recently, a police chief went into print saying that alcohol was too cheap <em>as compared with the proportion of income many years ago</em>. That may be true, but is comparing apples and pears. <br /><br />Many of us are now questioning the value which we receive for what we pay. "£6 for a packet of fags! I can get them for £1.50 in (wherever)" "Fifteen pounds for a bottle of whiskey! Are you mad! I can get..."<br /><br />Cheap air travel has enabled us take advantage of what we now know to be true - that Government has been ripping us of with their duties since God knows when. <br /><br />Off to the pub for a beer now......not be long - don't like paying £3 for a pint and having to go outside of an almost empty pub to have a smoke.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-62267078775456365712011-02-27T19:13:40.928+00:002011-02-27T19:13:40.928+00:00Taxation *has* risen sharply in the last ten years...Taxation *has* risen sharply in the last ten years. It's risen substantially just in the last two years. The price of a premium brand in 2001 was - roughly, I can't be bothered going into it now - about £4.50. It is now £6.70. As price rises, more and more people will seek to buy cigarettes more cheaply. I doubt there would be much smuggling if the price was £1.46, even with prices being cheaper elsewhere in Europe. So long as people feel the price is fair and affordable, demand for contraband is not great. There was very little smuggling in the 1950s for that reason.<br /><br />Smuggling will rise when people feel they are being ripped off and/or can simply not afford to pay the official price. Fewer people felt that way ten or twenty years ago because cigarettes were less expensive. Even more people will dabble in the illicit trade if the price goes to £8 or £10. Everyone has a breaking point. This is the basic point that Arnott is flatly denying.<br /><br />My 'concern', such as it is, relates to what she said in that article. You're the one who seems to think I should be outraged by the base price of cigarettes being higher in the UK than in Poland (largely a result of relative labour costs and overheads, I would have thought). While the tax rate is £5 a pack, people can justifiably feel more ripped off by the government than by the industry. (BTW, the base price of brands like Pall Mall must be much lower than the figures you're giving.)Christopher Snowdonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15963753745009712865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-68960715217470419582011-02-27T18:59:10.903+00:002011-02-27T18:59:10.903+00:00Strike that last question, Rollo. I can now follow...Strike that last question, Rollo. I can now follow what you’re saying. And, yes, what you’re saying is perverse as usual.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-692556972676133632011-02-27T18:53:11.486+00:002011-02-27T18:53:11.486+00:00your concerns lay with the interests of the little...<i> your concerns lay with the interests of the little smoker who doesn't want to quit.</i><br /><br />We are concerned. It doesn’t matter if they’re short <i>or</i> tall.<br /><br /><i>How can they justify charging 60% more in the UK</i><br /><br />Rollo, who do <i>you</i> think the “they” are? We’ll give you 8 guesses. Ahhh! What the heck, it’s Sunday. Have 12 guesses.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-79524388146517240042011-02-27T18:38:39.494+00:002011-02-27T18:38:39.494+00:00As an aside, I find this debate quite interesting....As an aside, I find this debate quite interesting. I had thought your concerns lay with the interests of the little smoker who doesn't want to quit.<br /><br />In fact, it seems you're more interested in defending the tobacco industry and attacking ASH at any opportunity. If you really cared about the interests of these smokers, you would be quick to complain about the outrageous differentials in cigarette prices before tax across the EU. How can they justify charging 60% more in the UK than France, and almost 2.5 times more than in Spain???Rollo Tommasinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-52699720117183661152011-02-27T18:34:22.496+00:002011-02-27T18:34:22.496+00:00A Ha Ha Ha Ha!!
That’s great, Rollo. Please conti...A Ha Ha Ha Ha!!<br /><br />That’s great, Rollo. Please continue.<br />Could you take a break around 9.00pm. There’s a program (higher entertainment value) I’d like to watch. You can continue from around 10.00pm.<br /><br />Rollo, you haven’t addressed the question of whether you know any smokers – even one. Would you be prepared to meet with a group of low-income smokers to see what they think of your “assessment”? Would you be prepared to leave your fantasy world for an encounter with actuality? Maybe you could bring Deb along. She could certainly do with a dose of actuality.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-79314365355503641052011-02-27T18:31:17.873+00:002011-02-27T18:31:17.873+00:00You're ignoring your own claim that smuggling ...You're ignoring your own claim that smuggling has rapidly increased in recent years because of taxation. That claim only works if taxation rose rapidly in the meantime. It clearly didn't. And actually even your claim that smuggling has been rising in recent years is dodgy.<br /><br />You ask "How much smuggling would there be if the price of a pack of 20 was £1.46?" Assuming a level playing field with no tobacco taxes across the EU, the answer would be pretty much as now. Smugglers would have a big incentive to bring in tobacco from Poland with a retail price of 21p per pack of 20.Rollo Tommasinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-721494393665910852011-02-27T18:10:18.919+00:002011-02-27T18:10:18.919+00:00As FT pointed out, consumers respond to the price,...As FT pointed out, consumers respond to the price, not the percentage that is tax. Whether it's 77% or 80% (a trivial difference, BTW) tax makes up the lion's share of the price and is primarily responsible for the disparity in prices between the UK and elsewhere. Arnott is denying that smuggling is caused by that disparity. That's a stupid/deceitful thing to say. <br /><br />If the industry is getting £1.46 for making the cigarettes and the state is getting £5.00+ for doing nothing, I think it's pretty obvious who is doing the fleecing. How much smuggling would there be if the price of a pack of 20 was £1.46?Christopher Snowdonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15963753745009712865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-9586753548212139302011-02-27T17:21:04.055+00:002011-02-27T17:21:04.055+00:00JJ - I'm sure you'll be relieved to know t...JJ - I'm sure you'll be relieved to know that I did not make the remark you quote.Rollo Tommasinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-24602666420359735462011-02-27T17:20:18.144+00:002011-02-27T17:20:18.144+00:00Thanks for responding in a way, Chris. But, not f...Thanks for responding in a way, Chris. But, not for the first time if I may say so, you don't actually deal with the points I clearly made.<br /><br />You yourself say that smuggling has increased in recent years (and actually, HMRC figures would disagree with you). So your line of argument only works if tobacco taxation has similarly increased greatly in that period. In fact it hasn't, and if anything is now a slightly smaller share of the cost of a pack of 20 than it was a decade ago.<br /><br />And here are some figures which may seem remarkable to you. The TMA's own website shows that the tax incidence for cigarettes in the UK is actually LESS than in more than half of EU countries. How can that be? Well, their figures show that the RRP for a pack of 20 cigarettes excluding tax is £1.46 in the UK, compared with just 90p in France, 61p in Spain and 21p in Poland. <br /><br />All of which begs the questions – why do you only criticise taxes on cigarettes? Why don’t you criticise Big Tobacco for fleecing UK smokers through price gouging?Rollo Tommasinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-5268746808698096472011-02-27T16:15:07.154+00:002011-02-27T16:15:07.154+00:00Anon 13.01
Of course Rollo doesn’t want to brush ...Anon 13.01<br /><br />Of course Rollo doesn’t want to brush shoulders with smokers – why, because here is what he really thinks of anyone who smokes.<br /><br /><b>Daily Mail Online comments section.</b><br /><br />‘The sooner all smokers just die the better for all normal members of mankind’.<br />RolloTomasi<br />25/2/2011 2:24JJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05239651363530826401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-18316952809515990422011-02-27T15:22:12.112+00:002011-02-27T15:22:12.112+00:00OK, Rollo, I’ve got the popcorn. Now, do tell.OK, Rollo, I’ve got the popcorn. Now, do tell.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-39826729394089896012011-02-27T13:01:15.411+00:002011-02-27T13:01:15.411+00:00Rollo: When in the last 20 years did smokers NOT t...<i>Rollo: When in the last 20 years did smokers NOT think that the cost of ciggies was too high?</i><br /><br />Rollo, just out of interest, have you ever met one of the “smokers”, the [actual] persons to which we (and you) are referring? Have you brushed shoulders with “them” on equal footing, able to carry on an amicable conversation with “them” without seeming awkward in their company? Or have you observed “them” from a distance? Have you led an elitist life protected from exposure to the <i>nouveau</i> “lepers” and their “filthy habit”?<br /><br />Don’t rush your response, Rollo. Give me time to make some popcorn.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-89661994427204935482011-02-27T12:51:21.755+00:002011-02-27T12:51:21.755+00:00The same is happening in the USA with contraband a...The same is happening in the USA with contraband and with cut-price tobacco legally supplied by tribal reservations. Tribal reservations had a particular level of sales. Then, the extortionate price of tobacco (comprising predominantly of tax) reaches a critical point for subgroups of smokers with each price hike – the “elastic” is broken. From that point, tribal sales have been increasing. There is also the “peeved off” factor. There may be smokers that can still technically afford the extortionate prices but choose contraband (if available) or tribal sales due to denormalization in addition to price, e.g., smoking bans and the depiction of smokers as “abnormal”. In this sense, the shift to such alternate supply is a form of protest, denying sales tax to a government that is intent on their progressive persecution and denying revenue to a tobacco industry that has become indifferent to their plight.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-31192186873823168102011-02-27T12:25:54.611+00:002011-02-27T12:25:54.611+00:00Hello Rollo. Welcome back.
Arnott is saying that ...Hello Rollo. Welcome back.<br /><br />Arnott is saying that smuggling is not caused by disparities in tax. If she really believes this, she is an idiot. Since I don't think she is an idiot, she must be lying.<br /><br />You don't need me to explain that raising prices increases demand for illicit products and that smuggling rises as demand rises. Can I "prove" the law of supply and demand? Probably not, but take a look at what happened in Canada in the 1990s. The situation is currently very similar in the UK and Ireland where prices are highest. Coinky-dince?Christopher Snowdonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15963753745009712865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-91705394516792765052011-02-27T11:26:54.266+00:002011-02-27T11:26:54.266+00:00Rollo
You’re true to [deranged] form. The sojourn...Rollo<br /><br />You’re true to [deranged] form. The sojourn has not dulled your capacity for inanity: Your comments make no sense – as usual. Please continue. Your strong, obsessive desire to defend insanity provides a level of entertainment not afforded by the Sunday junk on TV.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com