tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post577574033516383211..comments2023-10-17T15:56:22.827+01:00Comments on Velvet Glove, Iron Fist: Longer opening hours, fewer road accidentsChristopher Snowdonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15963753745009712865noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-66533717866221910752013-08-20T17:05:40.906+01:002013-08-20T17:05:40.906+01:00Sorry Chris, but I am not convinced that this show...Sorry Chris, but I am not convinced that this shows anything more conclusive than the 'miracle' studies of the anti-tobacco zealots.<br /><br />Yes, there was a "significant" fall in the trend between two 42-month periods, but so what? Looking at the trend in figure 1, it seems to have been falling more steeply <b>before</b> the legislation than after. It doesn't help having only 5-point moving averages, when there is clearly a huge seasonal (winter/summer) effect going on - 13-month moving averages would have been more useful.<br /><br />I do take your point about the large drop immediately after the introduction of the legislation, but it follows an apparently out-of-trend <b>increase</b> over the preceding period. The end result is that, over the whole 7 years the trend seems remarkable consistent, and any abrupt changes are merely down to whatever was going on in late 2004/early 2005. I would have been happier if they had shown the prevailing trend for a longer period before the legislation too, at least to see whether the prevailing trend was a long-term one. If it was, then nothing appears to have changed. If it wasn't, then where is the analysis of potential confounders (ie other possible reasons for the change)? There isn't one.<br /><br />I am also quite deeply unhappy that they have used a 'fudge factor' of value 1 as a proxy for 'measuring' the existence of the legislation. This trick has recently been used by Glantz and copied by one of the UK anti-tobacco wimmin (I can't remember which one - Bauld, I think). All they are really doing is setting the value of 1 for any period after a specific date - it is no way a measurement of the efect of the legislation per se and, as such, cannot be used to prove any relationship, other than coincidence over time, which, as I suggested before, looks like it was happening anyway.<br /><br />All in all, I see no methodological difference between this study and the Pell/Glantz/Gilmore garbage. Both groups can claim to have achieved statistically significant results, but that is not surprising - there is always a mathematical comparison technique somewhere that will show significance. It just needs to be searched for in the software packages used by these people.<br /><br />Anyway, why should this be seen as any different to the 'miracle' studies? <b>"Study proves that state legislation is effective"</b> is hardly a rallying cry to admire, and equally applies to both types of study.<br /><br />In my (low) opinion, economists are one of the three categories who should not be allowed anywhere near statistical methodologies - the others being epidemiologists and climate scientists (sic). They are all charlatans, and, equally, are usually wrong.BrianBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01932385164287199462noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-61915083491359746562013-08-19T19:30:10.352+01:002013-08-19T19:30:10.352+01:00"Life in the UK might actually start to be en..."Life in the UK might actually start to be enjoyable again! :)"<br /><br />And, as you say, safer.<br /><br />Smoking rates were in steady decline until the ban came in. And I can only wonder what not saying how much tar is in a fag or what having loads of untested fire retardant chemicals in a fag will do. <br /><br />Or indeed, banning packs of 10 (there have been times in the past when I had given up for months when I just had a craving. A couple of fags would have done the trick and then I would have binned the pack and given up again. But I wasn't going to chuck 18 fags! Especially at £8.00 a pack (another Tobacco Control brain wave)). Indeed, I can't think of a single TC measure that hasn't resulted in HARM rather than encouraging health. It's telling that the only time I gave up for a long time (18 months) was when I lived in Spain and fags were 80p a pack and at the time you could smoke anywhere. I knew I was giving up because I wanted to, not because I was being hectored into it.<br /><br />It's also telling that I haven't wanted to give up since 2007. ASH - promoting ill-health one step at a time.<br />James Burrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17887499076992310207noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-31988679414430633602013-08-19T16:49:34.997+01:002013-08-19T16:49:34.997+01:00What I find most interesting is that here we have ...What I find most interesting is that here we have what actually appears to be a positive outcome as a result of <b>relaxing</b> legislation. One wonders how much more could be achieved if we threw out all the self-righteous lobbyists and the restrictive laws they've engendered. Life in the UK might actually start to be enjoyable again! :)nisakimanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04563041282703559939noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-65979110034707686322013-08-19T15:44:09.307+01:002013-08-19T15:44:09.307+01:00Someone on Twitter made the same point, with a gra...Someone on Twitter made the same point, with a graph. <br /><br />https://twitter.com/matandbec/status/369468949819170816Christopher Snowdonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15963753745009712865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-26505373212746854222013-08-19T15:19:05.670+01:002013-08-19T15:19:05.670+01:00One might also suggest that one is more likely to ...One might also suggest that one is more likely to take a taxi when intending to come home at 2am rather than 11pm.Colonel Shotoverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13444102378439405819noreply@blogger.com