tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post7239953646341158386..comments2023-10-17T15:56:22.827+01:00Comments on Velvet Glove, Iron Fist: The Irish smoking ban miracleChristopher Snowdonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15963753745009712865noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-73689073603666654592013-05-01T20:43:06.011+01:002013-05-01T20:43:06.011+01:00Brian, I was thinking of quotes such as the first ...Brian, I was thinking of quotes such as the first in the post, about the immediate 13% decrease in mortality. Thanks for confirming my layman's readingpaulp127xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12026042972110221378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-24959893156643038252013-05-01T14:20:07.204+01:002013-05-01T14:20:07.204+01:00paulp1127x
Can you clarify which numbers and conf...paulp1127x<br /><br />Can you clarify which numbers and confidence intervals you are referring to? <br /><br />As far as I can see the only numbers in the report with confidence intervals are estimates of one kind or another - ie they aren't <b>real</b> counts of deaths, which should, as you rightly suggest, not be subject to CIs.<br /><br />But ther problem with this kind of 'study' - as has been shown time and time again - is that these people ignore the real numbers, as they are an incovenience to their message, so they invent silly 'models' that provide the usual "compelling" evidence that black is really - erm - white!<br /><br />It's a dismally sad reflection of the state of our educational system - in mathematics in particular - that they get away with such blatant untruths. <br /><br />They are either knowingly lying, or they are just thick!<br /><br />I suspect both.BrianBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01932385164287199462noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-67484980254160323612013-05-01T13:03:29.812+01:002013-05-01T13:03:29.812+01:00Could someone tell me why the figures for mortali...Could someone tell me why the figures for mortality in the past have confidence intervals? Do we not know the actual figures by now ?paulp127xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12026042972110221378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-36097300072040758912013-05-01T09:05:17.614+01:002013-05-01T09:05:17.614+01:00BrianB has pretty much nailed it in that the immed...BrianB has pretty much nailed it in that the immediate effect observed is entirely a consequence of the authors wishful thinking combined with (wilful?) statistical incompetence. <br /><br />At least the BBC appear to have ignored this one. I am sure that Michelle Roberts would have loved to talk it up but she was busy covering a non-study about bowel cancer and smoking from Norway presumably in her professional capacity as a PR officer for CRUK. <br /><br />http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-22350264<br /><br />Or perhaps in her private capacity as a public health obsessive? Ivan Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18364023294207490403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-26070336400383069102013-04-30T21:26:04.557+01:002013-04-30T21:26:04.557+01:00I recommend BrianB's post (linked to in his co...I recommend BrianB's post (linked to in his comment above) for further reading.Christopher Snowdonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15963753745009712865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-63120961155944196632013-04-30T17:06:50.012+01:002013-04-30T17:06:50.012+01:00The Tobacco Control morons are at it again. And th...The Tobacco Control morons are at it again. And the Drivel Machine™ is only in a “lazy” 3rd-gear.JohnBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05165051324276559561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-64729183120129747632013-04-30T16:52:46.422+01:002013-04-30T16:52:46.422+01:00Your/their 1992-2011 graph says it all.
In each ca...Your/their 1992-2011 graph says it all.<br />In each case a simple straight line from the 1992 or more markedly from 1993 rate through the 2004 rate shows the 2011 rate above the line.<br />Only Tobacco Control can ignore that the rates of decrease have slowed and the smoking ban is to blame.<br />Common-sense tells us that the smoking ban has cost lives not saved them.Xopherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01387364739989208360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3585028625507474093.post-37178828744263321812013-04-30T16:43:32.564+01:002013-04-30T16:43:32.564+01:00As ever, you beat me too it, Chris.
I have posted...As ever, you beat me too it, Chris.<br /><br />I have posted my take on this at <a href="http://taking-liberties.squarespace.com/blog/2013/4/30/ireland-smoking-ban-has-saved-thousands-of-lives-allegedly.html?lastPage=true&postSubmitted=true" rel="nofollow">Simon's place</a>. It isn't currently past moderation, yet, but hopefully soon.<br /><br />It might add a few thoughts to your own analysis, but I can't compete with the sheer, sarcastic beauty of your writing-style!<br /><br />Good piece.BrianBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01932385164287199462noreply@blogger.com